Hu and Koizumi, a close encounter at
last By J Sean Curtin
After
an acrimonious political year since they last met
briefly, Chinese President Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi recently got together for an
hour after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum
(APEC) summit in Chile. Their late evening talk focused
on three main areas of Sino-Japanese friction, Koizumi's
controversial visits to the war-tainted Yasukuni Shrine
in Tokyo, a dispute over China's gas exploitation
projects in the East China Sea (the maritime territorial
border is in dispute), and the recent incursion of a
Chinese submarine into Japanese territorial waters. Hu
said the shrine visits were not acceptable and
personally appealed to Koizumi to stop his annual
pilgrimages.
Although superficially little
progress appeared to have been made, and neither side
yielded ground, a deeper analysis reveals that economics
rather than politics is still the driving force in
bilateral ties between the two countries. Both sides
emphasized the importance of improved economic ties and
regional stability.
While the two leaders did
not actually change their positions or concede any ground, according
to their spokespersons, official media and
sources, they did finally lay the
foundations for a possible reconciliation by publicly acknowledging their political
relationship has serious problems, identifying one of its
root causes: Koizumi's visit to the shrine that honors Japan's
war dead, including Class-A war criminals. The two leaders
met for the first time a year ago, in October 2003, at
the APEC summit in Bangkok.
The frank exchange
has already sparked a lively debate in Japan, and will
cheer Japanese business leaders who are concerned that
vital economic ties with the Middle Kingdom may be
jeopardized by deteriorating political dialogue. China's
voracious appetite for imports has largely fueled
Japan's nascent economic recovery. The business
community has been demanding that Koizumi try to smooth
relations with China, which imported a staggering 3.8
trillion yen (US$36.7 billion) from Japan in the first
six months of 2004.
Despite booming economic
ties, the political relationship between the two top
leaders can be likened to that of an unfortunate couple
in an ancient Chinese legend: the unlucky pair were only
allowed to meet briefly once a year. At their first
meeting in Bangkok, not much was accomplished in the
pro-forma session. Koizumi is persona non grata in
China, primarily because of his regular shrine visits,
which he has refused to give up. He told Hu this time
that his controversial visits were in fact an anti-war
pledge.
Hu and Koizumi's close
encounter Having met almost every other APEC
leader, President Hu finally penciled in a little time
after the forum ended for his short annual audience with
the leader of one of China's most important economic
partners. Having been strongly criticized at home for
the abysmal state of Sino-Japanese ties under his
premiership, Koizumi was desperate to speak to the
Chinese leader this year, and readily agreed to rush
over to his hotel for a quick mini-summit.
Shaking hands for the cameras, the two men
sported unconvincing smiles. Koizumi attempted a little
jovial banter, but there was no disguising the definite
lack of genuine friendliness in the atmosphere,
especially compared with Hu's earlier and clearly
friendly flesh pressing with other APEC leaders.
Immediately after the photo-opportunity session
ended, the leaders sat down facing each other across a
conference table, flanked by neat rows of advisers.
Unlike last year's less formal armchair discussion, on
this occasion there was a distinctively more
business-like air.
Hu warns Koizumi against
going to Yasukuni President Hu, who also is head
of the Chinese Communist Party and the military, quickly
dispensed with the normal diplomatic niceties, and for
the first time ever told Koizumi directly that his
repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine are the issue
that most seriously damages Sino-Japanese ties.
Beijing and many of Japan's Asian neighbors view
the prime minister's regular trips to Yasukuni, which is
so strongly identified with Japan's brutal wartime
regime, as totally inappropriate, insensitive and deeply
offensive. The Shinto shrine honors the country's
war-dead but is also dedicated to 14 Class-A war
criminals, including wartime leader General Hideki Tojo.
Critics have likened Koizumi's Yasukuni pilgrimages to a
German leader visiting a Hitler memorial or a
Palestinian leader praying at a shrine for suicide
bombers; Yasukuni also is strongly linked with Japan's
wartime suicide kamikaze pilots.
Hu simply told
Koizumi, "The crux of the problem is that Japanese
government leaders pay homage at the Yasukuni Shrine."
Hu explained that the Yasukuni issue has become the
major political obstacle in Sino-Japanese relations, and
that both countries should strive to develop bonds that
respect all aspects of their mutual history.
The
Chinese president also asked Koizumi to specifically
avoid going to Yasukuni next year, as it will be a
symbolically significant 60 years since the end of World
War II. Hu said, "You can't ignore history. In
particular, next year is a sensitive year that marks the
60th anniversary of the victory by anti-fascists." Hu
added that if Koizumi visited the Yasukuni Shrine in
2005, it would deeply offend Chinese people. He
cautioned Koizumi, "I would like you to take appropriate
action."
Since taking office in April 2001,
Koizumi has paid annual homage at the shrine, making his
first foray in August 2001. Beijing has repeatedly said
that such excursions must stop, since the shrine is
considered a symbol of Japan's wartime militarism and
the visits are highly offensive to the Chinese people,
stirring up memories of past Japanese atrocities.
Beijing also interprets top-level visits as proof that
Tokyo is not genuinely repentant for the immense
suffering it inflicted on the Chinese people.
In
response to Hu's remarks, Koizumi seemed to acknowledge
the need to recognize the countries' painful mutual
past. "It is important to give consideration to
history," he said, but rejected Hu's criticism of his
shrine pilgrimages. He reiterated his long-standing
position that the shrine visits should not be
interpreted as any form of tribute to Japanese war
criminals, but rather should be seen as an expression of
a Japanese tradition that honors all its war-dead
equally. Furthermore, his pilgrimages should be
considered as the prime minister's way of making a
pledge that Japan will never again wage a war of
aggression. He told Hu, "I visit there in order to honor
those who lost their lives against their will."
Highlighting Yasukuni a positive
sign? While the two leaders failed to bridge the
gap on Yasukuni, they did reaffirm the importance of
developing good bilateral relations. More significantly,
by making the issue so prominent, Hu has ensured that it
will now be properly debated in Japan, increasing the
chances for a satisfactory resolution. By issuing, in
effect, an ultimatum, Hu also gave Koizumi three
options:
Incur the wrath of China by continuing to go to the
shrine;
Suspend the forays until leaving office;
Undertake the building of a controversy-free secular
shrine in accordance with the recommendations of a
government panel that investigated the matter.
Hu has raised the stakes considerably by
personally requesting that Koizumi not go next year. If
he does, it could completely rupture Sino-Japanese
relations, some analysts say. With such a sword of
Damocles hanging over China ties, the business community
is certain to put pressure on Koizumi to restrain
himself for the sake of good Sino-Japanese economic
links.
However, the old debate about Japan's
right to honor its war dead in the way it sees most
appropriate and without any outside interference, will
definitely resurface. Some conservative commentators
also argue that expanding Chinese military might means
Koizumi cannot afford to back down over Yasukuni because
it would leave Japan looking weak.
Hu mum on
maritime dispute and sub incursion The two
leaders also discussed other contentious issues, such as
the dispute over the exploitation of gas fields in the
East China Sea in areas claimed by both countries and
the recent intrusion into Japanese territorial waters of
a Chinese submarine. After stonewalling for days, China
finally acknowledged the sub, said it strayed by
accident and expressed some form of regret, enabling
Japan to interpret that as the apology it had demanded.
China is currently engaged in gas and oil
exploitation projects in the East China Sea, and since
October 2003 has been drilling in a region about 400
kilometers northwest of Okinawa Island. The test sites,
operated by China's biggest offshore oil and gas
producer, CNOOC Ltd, lie just a few kilometers from the
boundary line that Tokyo designates as separating the
two countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), but that
Beijing does not officially recognize.
Mindful
of their territorial disputes, Koizumi urged President
Hu to exercise prudence in its development of seabed
resources. He said, "It's important not to make the East
China Sea a venue for conflicts." Although Hu declined
to directly respond to Koizumi's request, the two
leaders did agree to try to resolve the issue through
mutual dialogue, according to sources close to the
meeting.
Referring to the recent intrusion by a
Chinese nuclear-powered submarine into Japanese
territorial waters, Koizumi asked Hu to ensure China
takes preventive measures to avoid a recurrence of such
incidents. Again, Hu declined to make a direct response,
instead replying, "Outstanding issues should be
considered from a broader viewpoint." On other issues
such as Taiwan policy, the two sides were in general
agreement. China is adamant that Taiwan is part of China
and Japan, which had colonized Taiwan and maintains
close links, does not want to see a conflict in or
around the Taiwan Strait.
Economics still
more important than politics This year's
fleeting annual rendezvous at a regional conference
graphically illustrates that while economic ties between
the two neighbors are shooting through the stratosphere,
political ties are still just hovering above the ground,
and might even be sinking. However, the fact that the
two leaders actually met and exchanged frank views will
be viewed by many in the business world as a fairly
positive sign.
Furthermore, Koizumi reaffirmed
his view that development of the Chinese economy does
not pose a threat but offers great opportunities for
Japan. Hu was equally upbeat on economic ties. According
to Chinese sources, he explained his hope that both
countries would continue to promote good bilateral
cooperation, ensuring regional stability.
In the
final analysis, economics, not politics, is the driving
force in Sino-Japanese relations.
J Sean
Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
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