For
more than a year, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi has been doggedly asking Beijing for a top-level
summit meeting with either Chinese President Hu Jintao
or Premier Wen Jiabao. Somewhat unexpectedly, within the
past couple of weeks this request has been granted in
full, resulting in separate audiences with both leaders.
However, rather than helping to repair severely strained
bilateral ties, both mini-summits have only served to
underscore the extremely poor state of Sino-Japanese
political relations. This issue is increasingly
beginning to dominate Koizumi's domestic agenda,
generating criticism of his dealings with the Middle
Kingdom as well as whipping up Japanese nationalist
sentiment.
The latest hour-long summit, with
Chinese Premier Wen, took place on Tuesday on the
sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) gathering in Vientiane, Laos. It followed an
almost identical pattern to the earlier tense encounter
with President Hu at the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) forum in Chile a week ago.
While history is not meant to repeat itself, the
rule does not appear to apply to Sino-Japanese summits
as both meetings had identical agendas and outcomes.
Beijing's objective behind the double-whammy appears to
be to pile up the pressure on Koizumi over his handling
of bilateral ties and ram home its displeasure to the
Japanese public, which is deeply divided over the issue.
Following Hu's APEC lead, Wen forcefully
reiterated Beijing's deep unhappiness with Koizumi's
annual visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine,
which Beijing says is the major obstacle to good
Sino-Japanese political dialogue. The controversial
Shinto shrine honors Japan's war dead, including several
Class A war criminals, and is closely associated with
the country's brutal wartime regime and with what some
see as Japan's increasing militarism.
Koizumi
softens Yasukuni stance Since his first encounter
with Hu, who urged him to end his shrine visits, Koizumi
has been forced to soften his position on the shrine
pilgrimages slightly. Instead of declaring he definitely
will visit it each year, he has now moderated this to "I
will make an appropriate judgment in the future."
Beijing has interpreted this as progress, but it is far
from clear whether Koizumi will yield to Beijing's
demand.
In the latest head-to-head, both leaders
again emphasized the importance of booming and vital
bilateral economic ties, much to the relief of the
business community in both countries. Trade between the
two neighbors is currently growing at astronomical
rates, so far remaining unaffected by the turbulent
political waters.
Beijing seems to be
calculating that by continuously highlighting the
Yasukuni issue, Koizumi may be forced to moderate his
stance because of building domestic demands for better
relations with China, which Beijing says are dependant
on ceasing the contentious shrine excursions.
As
if reading from the same script as President Hu, Wen
restated China's demand that the controversial
pilgrimages cease because, according to Beijing, they
lie at the core of current Sino-Japanese political
tensions. As in the earlier rendezvous with Hu, Koizumi
voiced understanding for Beijing's position, but
declined to say whether he would continue to make an
annual trip to the disputed shrine.
The
exchanges also covered the same areas discussed at the
Hu summit, including the recent Chinese submarine
incursion into Japanese territorial waters and disputed
natural resources in the East China Sea.
Underlying the tense nature of the meeting, Wen
declined Koizumi's invitation to visit Japan. He
cryptically remarked, "I hope to visit Japan in a
favorable condition and environment," which was
interpreted to mean either after Koizumi leaves office
or after he stops visiting Yasukuni. The lack of
customary top-level bilateral visits visibly
demonstrates the uneasiness of Beijing's relationship
with Koizumi.
Domestic challenges to Yasukuni
visits
The Japanese premier is facing a
multi-pronged attack on the home front over his Yasukuni
forays, including a number of legal challenges on
whether the visits are constitutional or infringe upon
the separation of religion and politics. There is fierce
criticism in the liberal press, determined opposition
from left-wing politicians and growing criticism from
the Japanese business community, which is worried that
Koizumi's shrine antics will eventually damage business
ties with China. Trade with China has been fueling the
Japanese economic recovery.
Keiko Yamauchi,
former opposition lawmaker and bitter opponent of the
shrine visits, told Asia Times On-line, "Koizumi is
clearly violating the constitution, offending our
neighbors and damaging Japan's image as a peace-loving
country. He should publicly apologize to China and then
resign."
However, conservative and nationalist
forces have rallied to Koizumi's defense, passionately
dismissing arguments like Yamauchi's as nonsense, saying
they are caving in to unjust Chinese demands that
interfere in Japan's domestic affairs.
Yuzuru
Endo, a correspondent for Japan's best-selling daily
newspaper, the Yomiuri Shimbun, summed up conservative
sentiment about Yasukuni in an article after the first
summit with Hu. He wrote, "Chinese demands to stop the
visits to the shrine and enshrine Class A Japanese war
criminals separately from other war dead in the shrine
are demands that Japan cannot possibly accept. As long
as China brings up the problem of Yasukuni Shrine, it
will be difficult for the two countries to meet
halfway."
A recent editorial in the same paper
was equally forthright, stating, "One of the only things
standing in the way of the normal development of
bilateral relations between Japan and China is China's
interference in this country's internal affairs."
Conservatives are also increasingly emphasizing
the growing military threat from China and its
territorial ambitions. It is reported that China will be
named as a threat to Japan's security in a new
defense-policy document soon to be compiled. It will be
the first time Tokyo mentions a specific nation as a
threat to its peace and stability.
Yasukuni
splits public opinion An increasingly intense
battle is now being waged in the media over the rights
and wrongs of the prime minister visiting the shrine and
how best to mend fences with China. Public opinion is
generally split on the issue. Opinion polls taken after
Koizumi's last shrine visit in January showed a roughly
even divide.
A recent survey in the Asahi
newspaper about whether Koizumi should continue his
shrine visits indicated a similar split, with 38%
supporting them while 39% said they should stop.
Hitoshi Urabe, a leading commentator at the
Japanese Institute for Global Communications, said,
"There are in fact many in Japan who also, as if to
follow the Chinese leaders, denounce visits by
big-names, especially politicians, to the shrine, but
for most of the people in Japan the subject itself is
disenchanting, partly because outsiders have been making
so much noise about it. While most of the Japanese
people realize and acknowledge that there had been
unfortunate incidents on the way to and during World War
II, they are puzzled by why China, and a whole bunch of
media in and out of Japan, are making so much fuss over
the issue. They are also skeptical when told that the
prime minister's visit to the shrine is the sole
obstacle and stopping it would suddenly solve every
difference of view between Japan and China."
There are growing signs that the Japanese
business community is becoming increasingly frustrated
with Koizumi and pressure from them may force him to
moderate his position further, perhaps postponing his
next shrine foray until the end of next year or even
until after he leaves office in 2006.
China
firmly believes it is up to Koizumi to rectify the
current impasse. Wen tried to explain this to him using
an old Chinese expression. He told Koizumi, "Let him who
tied the bell on a tiger take it off."
J
Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
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