Of Japanese strawberries and
soldiers By Richard
Hanson
"Junichiro Koizumi here. I hear that in
Beijing apples grown in Aomori prefecture are sold at
2,000 yen [US$19] each. Some time ago, I heard a story
that in Shanghai, Japanese strawberries are sold not in
cases or boxes, but by the berry: one strawberry for 300
yen. Out of curiosity, I asked a Chinese person who was
visiting my office whether this was true, and to my
surprise he confirmed this to be the case and also that
the price in Beijing for Japanese apples was 150 yuan
[US$18] each." - Premier Koizumi's
Lion Heart newsletter, December 9
TOKYO - Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi's sudden curiosity over how much Japanese fruit
fetches in Beijing seems odd, since it is a city where
he is not welcome, and his trivial talk of apples and
berries comes at a time when Japan confronts strained
relations with Beijing and faces questions of great
import - like extending its controversial troop
deployment in Iraq.
Koizumi is not welcome in
Beijing because of his habit of visiting a shrine in
Tokyo devoted to the spirits of the war dead, a gesture
that China and a lot of other countries regard as an
insult and a glorification of Japan's past militarism
and their own suffering.
The last few days have
presented Koizumi with a number of tough decisions, next
to which even mentioning the price of apples and
strawberries in his popular newsletter is baffling.
Start with Japan's troops in Iraq. In an
extraordinary meeting of the cabinet on Thursday, the
government decided that Japan's Self-Defense Force
troops will remain in Iraq for another year, unless
Koizumi decides it's too dangerous. Citing the
importance of United States ties and the needs of the
Iraqi people, the "humanitarian" mission of some 600
soldiers in Iraq will be extended. There have been no
casualties so far, though a Japanese traveler has been
beheaded.
The extension was expected, despite
the ongoing dangers and plans to withdraw a Dutch
contingent of troops that was responsible for guarding
the Japanese troops. Japan's pacifist-leaning citizens
are wary. Even the director general of the Defense
Agency, on an inspection trip last week, spent only five
hours in Iraq.
In another decision, the size of
the Ground Self-Defense Force will be cut from the
current 160,000 to 155,000, starting next fiscal year,
the government said. The Finance Ministry wanted to
slash more. That is part of a long-debated, new National
Defense Program Outline, which the ruling Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, New
Komeito, okayed along with a new five-year Midterm
Defense Buildup Program, 2005-2009.
The total
five-year budget is 24.24 trillion yen (US$235 billion),
down 920 billion yen from the current five-year program.
It's the first cut since the mid-term plans began in
1985, but it still leaves Japan as one of the world's
top three defense spenders. The Buddhist-influenced New
Komeito nixed a long-term missile study. The leader of
the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DJP),
protested, but the party won't likely have a clear shot
at ousting the ruling coalition for another three years.
With the approval, however, the LDP appears to
have dumped other plans for the military that would
skirt constitutional issues that some party members
would like to raise as the LDP marks its 50th
anniversary next November. A draft was found to have
been worked on by a member of the Self-Defense Forces,
and that drew criticism. Koizumi calmed the waters by
admitting, "It has been a little too hasty ... There is
no need to hurry," Koizumi told reporters. Then
there is the issue of Japanese abducted by North Korea,
an issue which begs for a tough decision. On Thursday,
DNA tests showed that the remains sent by Pyongyang
after months of negotiations did not match those of one
of the Japanese abductees taken by North Korea over two
decades ago.
That sparked a crisis for Koizumi,
who has pursued a delicate pressure and dialogue in
"normalization" talks started two years ago. That was
seen as a blatant act by the parents of the missing
Megumi Yokota. Public calls for tough economic sanctions
will put pressure on the prime minister, who is seen by
many as seeking the "glory" of ending hostilities with
the nuclear-bomb building rogue state before his term in
office ends two years hence.
But, among the
really hard-to-make decisions, China remains Koizumi's
toughest diplomatic - and personal - challenge. Here,
the prime minister's problem is how to create closer
diplomatic relations - frozen at the top-level because
of Koizumi's prayer visits to the infamous Yasukuni
Shrine, honoring the war dead, including some Class-A
war criminals; the spirits of the war dead are said to
reside there. The irony is that both governments are
keen for better relations. They just can't find a way to
show it.
In November, China's top leaders
bluntly and personally urged Koizumi to stop visiting
the shrine. Koizumi's reaction has been vague and
noncommittal, suggesting that the issue will continue to
cloud bilateral relations. But according to one Japanese
government official, for all the patriotic emotions on
both sides, the new leadership in China seriously wants
to "fix" its relations with Japan. Koizumi government
officials cite a quiet explanation and public apology by
China during the flap over a Chinese nuclear submarine
violating Japan's territorial waters.
The
Defense Agency quickly identified the sub as Chinese by
the sound of the propeller screws. China explained that
the submarine entered the forbidden area by mistake. In
the past week, Koizumi has softened his public
statements on Yasukuni.
Koizumi's most precious
political asset, secured early in his administration
that began in April 2001, remains his relationship with
the United States and President George W Bush. "Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi was probably the happiest
person in Japan following the reelection of US President
George W Bush," said Yoshio Okubo, a political columnist
for the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's largest daily.
"In the past six months the only issue that the
prime minister truly was concerned about was the result
of the US presidential election," says one senior
government official.
This was reflected on
Friday, when Japan's cabinet eased a 1976 ban on
exporting arms and approved joint development of a
missile defense system with the US.
"Japan is of
one mind with the United States in its counter-terrorist
commitment," notes Sophia University Professor Kuniko
Inoguchi. Japan can be multilateral as long as it
produces results in the fight against terrorism.
For Koizumi, perhaps the most satisfying moments
recently have been the sight of the ruling LDP's largest
faction, long headed by his arch-enemy, the former prime
minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, humiliated during Diet
(parliament) hearings over a scandal involving illegal
political donations received by the faction. Hashimoto,
who was head of the faction at the time some 100 million
yen was received, appeared flustered under questioning.
(He was Koizumi's main opponent for the party's
presidency and a fierce opponent to his plans for
sweeping reforms.)
The prime minister's job has
in recent months been made a bit easier by a recovery in
the economy that has continued to produce moderate
growth for the past six quarters, or about half of his
term in office so far. It is likely that he will
continue to concentrate on his favorite reforms, which
include the privatization of the postal system and a
shake up in the financing of local governments.
The government's tax panel called for phasing
out the 1999 general tax cuts in fiscal 2005 and 2006,
as well as for hiking the consumption tax in the future,
in a report Thursday to the prime minister.
Koizumi's Tax Commission's proposals for fiscal
2005, which starts next April, may provide an unwelcome
jolt for taxpayers by rolling back a tax cut made during
a slump in the late 1990s. But the proposed tax boost
could draw resistance from ruling party lawmakers
worried about its possible impact on an already slowing
economy.
Koizumi is unlikely to take any action
that could backfire. That includes avoiding problems in
Japan's relations with China. The Chinese government
told reporters that Koizumi invited the Chinese premier
to visit Japan during the 2005 World Exposition in Aichi
prefecture, in central Honshu, the home of Toyota Motor,
which starts in March.The Chinese said the visit only
could take place when conditions were appropriate - and
ripe.
For the moment, Koizumi may just have to
contemplate why Chinese consumers will pay exorbitantly
for a Japanese apple for Aomori or a single strawberry.
At some point, he might be able to see for himself - if
he stops visiting the shrine.
Richard
Hanson, veteran correspondent and expert on the
Japanese economy and politics, is the author of
Money Lords: The Pride and Folly of Japan's Finance
Ministry Elites.
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