China hits all-time low on Japan pop
charts By J Sean Curtin
TOKYO
- The statisticians, in their annual measure of national
goodwill, have very bad news for Japanese and Chinese
politicians, businessmen and the public. It's time to
look to the new year, make resolutions and take steps
for a better 2005.
According to the
just-released annual Japanese government opinion survey,
the number of Japanese people who feel affinity with
China has fallen sharply, hitting an all-time low of
37.6%, This represents a dramatic 10.3-percentage-point
drop from last year. The results are being seen as yet
another indication that despite booming economic ties,
Japan-China relations are in trouble. For more than
three years Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
has pursued a controversial China policy that has put
Japanese neo-nationalism ahead of good political
relations with Beijing, seriously straining bilateral
ties.
The new poll findings demonstrate that
Koizumi's risky strategy has undermined Japanese
perceptions of the Middle Kingdom and might affect
bilateral commerce in 2005. There are also strong
indications that the Chinese public now views Japan much
less favorably than before Koizumi came to power in
April 2001.
The Japanese business community
fears that the animosity generated by what some consider
Koizumi's insensitive China policy could damage booming
economic ties that are vital to both countries.
Preliminary projections for 2004 estimate that China
imported somewhere in the region of 7.6 trillion yen
(US$73.4 billion) in goods from Japan. A frustrated
Japanese businessman whose company is heavily involved
in China told Asia Times Online, "Koizumi should be
trying to help Japanese business, not make our lives
more difficult by upsetting China. I worry that the
nationalist flames he has fanned will get out of
control."
Government officials says China's
slump in the yearly Japanese Cabinet Office survey
reflects the current poor state of Sino-Japanese
relations and is the result of recent disputes, such as
China's development of natural-gas fields in the East
China Sea near Japan's disputed maritime boundary and
Koizumi's contentious annual visits to the war-tainted
Yasukuni Shrine.
Beijing sees the Yasukuni
Shrine as the spiritual symbol of Japan's brutal wartime
regime, viewing prime-ministerial patronage as
unacceptable in the same way Israel would not tolerate
German leaders visiting a Nazi memorial. The Chinese
leadership has singled out Koizumi's shrine excursions
as the main factor holding back bilateral political
ties. Debate over the issue has aroused nationalist
passions in both countries. Yasukuni is a memorial to
Japan's war dead; 14 Class A war criminals are enshrined
there as well.
Government officials also blame
China's popularity nosedive on Chinese soccer fans'
hostile jeering of the Japanese national team during the
China-hosted Asia Cup soccer tournament this year.
However, many Japanese reject this assessment. Hiroki
Takeda, a university student and soccer enthusiast,
said, "The bureaucrats' explanation sounds silly. The
bad behavior you saw in China is common everywhere in
the world where soccer is played. When Japan beat Russia
in the World Cup, they attacked our embassy in Moscow.
Besides, nobody in Japan really cared what the Chinese
fans did because we beat China and won the Asia Cup."
China's rowdy reaction to Japan's victory was mild in
comparison with the reaction of losing-side soccer fans
in Europe, Latin America and elsewhere.
Japanese media and nationalism harm China's
image The government-cited causes cannot fully
explain China's ratings crash, which is worse than the
51.6% recorded in 1989 after the Tiananmen Square
"incident" in which hundreds, maybe thousands of
peaceful pro-democracy demonstrators were attacked and
killed by the People's Liberation Army. That was the
lowest since the annual survey began in 1978. Now it's
even worse.
The Japanese media, which have
exaggerated the activities of a small number of Chinese
criminals operating in Japan, and right-wing
politicians, who have exploited anti-Chinese sentiment
for political advantage, must also shoulder a very large
portion of the blame for the very negative poll result
(see Japan murder fuels false anti-China
furor).
A businesswoman, who did not wish to
be identified, said media stereotyping is seriously
harming China's image. "I have been dealing with China
for over 15 years and witnessed an incredible
transformation in everything, from the way they do
business to the way they look," she said. "China has
become so sophisticated and modern, yet from the
impression the Japanese media [have] been painting
lately, you would think the entire country is made up of
violent criminals who are lining up to come here to rob
Japanese people."
Another important factor,
which is much more difficult to quantify, is rising
nationalist sentiment generated by North Korea's past
abduction of Japanese citizens, a topic that dominates
the Japanese media. There are growing indications that
animosity directed at Pyongyang, China's longtime ally,
is also hurting China because of recent bilateral
tensions. Some analysts think this is the most alarming
aspect of worsening public perceptions of China.
A senior Japanese diplomat explained the
situation to Asia Times Online: "Unfortunately, the
public's strong emotional reaction and anger about the
North Korean abduction issue has begun to spill over on
to China, and people are mixing up the two together.
This confusion may partly be arising because both
regimes are nominally communist. Recent tension with
China is also definitely a factor."
He added,
"This is not a good development, and it will cause
problems in the future because illogical perceptions
like this are very difficult to change. Furthermore,
once an issue becomes driven by emotion, it becomes hard
to approach it in a rational manner."
The
situation is certain to deteriorate further if Koizumi
makes another of his regular shrine forays in 2005,
since this would produce a strong reaction from Beijing
and be met by an equally robust response from the
right-wing Japanese press.
Yasukuni policy
backfires Some think business considerations were
among the factors that initially led Koizumi to start
his contentious Yasukuni pilgrimages. He wanted to get
nationalist elements within his own governing Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) to support the economic reforms
the business world was demanding. Playing the
nationalist card seemed like the best way mollify this
constituency. This strategy has dramatically backfired,
and the shrine visits are now severely damaging
Koizumi's standing with the business community.
Dr Christopher Pokarier, an associate professor
of business at Waseda University, told Asia Times
Online, "Koizumi needed the conservative and nationalist
wings of the LDP on side if he was going to have any
chance of implementing his economic-reform agenda. This
is basically because these policies would damage the
traditional support base of the LDP, so he had to give
them something in return, and a good dose of nationalism
seemed like the ideal remedy. Ironically, the economic
situation has now moved on and issues like postal reform
are not so important to business, while relations with
China most definitely are."
The importance of
good political dialogue in smoothing bilateral relations
can best be illustrated in the Japan-US relationship,
which regularly goes through rough patches, but unlike
China, the United States remains popular. The most
recent focus of US-Japan tension was the crash in August
of a US Marine Corps helicopter on the campus of Okinawa
International University. The US military turned down a
request by the local police to join the on-site
investigation into the crash, seriously offending
residents and provoking strong protests. Despite this,
two months later 71.8% of Japanese surveyed said they
favored the United States in the annual government
survey.
Some indirectly blame the US for China's
current unpopularity. A prominent Japanese academic, who
did not wished to be identified, said, "I feel US
policymakers are just too focused on the Chinese
economy, almost obsessively, and they are not paying
enough attention to Japan and its legitimate security
concerns about the growing military power of China. This
makes Japanese people feel extra-uneasy about China. In
fact, many ordinary people feel the US is ignoring the
threat posed by China, and unless the US rectifies this
position, people will continue to feel threaten by
China."
Survey results may underestimate
anti-Chinese feeling Some commentators believe
that the annual government poll actually underestimates
the current level of anti-Chinese sentiment because it
was conducted before tensions were heightened by the
recent incursion of a Chinese submarine into Japanese
territorial waters and the two frosty summit meetings
between Koizumi and Chinese President Hu Jintao and
Premier Wen Jiabao.
Hitoshi Urabe, a senior
researcher at the Japanese Institute of Global
Communications, said, "Japanese people's sentiment
against China could only be assumed to be worse now than
when the survey was carried out."
He explained,
"The poll was conducted in October, before the Chinese
nuclear submarine intruded into Japanese waters, for
which China expressed only 'regret' at a press
conference, without a formal apology to Japan. It was
also before our Prime Minister Koizumi was 'scolded' by
Chinese leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic
[Cooperation] forum and then at a meeting of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations."
The
official survey findings are worrying enough, showing an
unprecedented deterioration in friendly attitudes toward
China. In 2003, 47.9% of Japanese felt close to China,
compared with the present 37.6%, while those who felt
negatively rose to 58.2% from last year's 48%.
Back in 1980, China enjoyed a positive rating of
78.6% and during the 1980s the figured hovered at about
70% until the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident knocked it
down to 51.6%. The figure remained around the 50% mark
until this year's drastic tumble.
Urabe believes
the Chinese leadership's criticism of Koizumi has
generated a certain degree of nationalist passion. He
commented, "It is true that there are many Japanese
people who question Mr Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni
Shrine, but the prime minister being criticized publicly
by the officials of another country, for whatever
reason, is not an impressing sight for the people who
collectively and in accordance with the rules of
democracy chose him to lead the country."
China issues Yasukuni
ultimatum Whether the Japanese public like it or
not, China's leaders have given Koizumi what amounts to
an ultimatum: halt the shrine visits or seriously damage
bilateral ties. At a summit meeting in November,
President Hu Jintao told Koizumi, "The crux of the
problem is that Japanese government leaders pay homage
at the Yasukuni Shrine." Hu argued that if Koizumi
visited the shrine in 2005, it would deeply offend
Chinese people.
Because the traditional Chinese
calendar runs on a 60-year cycle, the 60th anniversary
of the ending of World War II, which occurs in 2005, is
regarded as having an especially strong symbolic
significance in Chinese eyes. Hu's message was
reinforced when Koizumi subsequently met Premier Wen
Jiabao, who delivered the same message.
Since
the ultimatum was issued, Koizumi has been unusually
silent about his intentions on visiting the shrine,
though he has said he would seriously consider China's
concerns. There has been fierce debate about whether he
will visit Yasukuni in 2005. The business community has
been putting pressure on Koizumi to halt the pilgrimages
for the sake of Sino-Japanese economic links, while
nationalist elements in his party and the right-wing
press have been demanding that Koizumi continue to pay
homage at the shrine. Neo-conservatives claim that to
bow to Chinese pressure would be interpreted as a sign
of weakness by Beijing. Foreign Ministry officials fret
that a new foray would completely undermine their
efforts to improve Japan-China relations.
If
Koizumi decides to go, the timing of any visit will be
critical. Were he to go at the beginning of the year as
he did in 2004, he would in effect derail any prospect
of improving ties in 2005. However, if he postponed his
pilgrimage to near the end of the year, diplomats would
at least have a chance to repair some of the current
damage before the next clash.
Before Koizumi
took up office, who could have imagined that the future
shape of Sino-Japanese relations would revolve around an
annual visit to a relatively obscure Shinto shrine? Yet
Koizumi's decision on visiting the shrine has the power
to damage long-term bilateral ties severely.
Recently there have been signs that Koizumi has
begun to become alarmed about the nationalist genie he
has let out of the bottle, especially his inability to
control it. Logic would seem to dictate that he would
refrain from visiting Yasukuni until after he has left
office in 2006, but nationalism is not a logical force.
Unforeseen events may push him into playing the
nationalist card. If he does, the consequence for
Sino-Japanese relations could be severe on both sides.
In Japan, the already serious popularity slump for China
could become grievous and harm political and economic
ties.
J Sean Curtain is a GLOCOM
fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global
Communications.
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