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Koizumi the 'Lionheart' falters in
the polls
By Richard Hanson
TOKYO - "The Koizumi government is not
dead yet," said an Asahi Shimbun editorial writer
after a poll showed Prime Minister Koizumi's
cabinet at its lowest ebb so far, with 33% in
popular support. But will the once wildly popular
leader's most crucial policy initiatives -
including dealing with North Korea - suffer from a
perception of weakness in coming months as he
adjusts to "lame duck" status in his last two
years in office?
"Prime Minister Koizumi
does not pay attention to popularity polls," is
how one veteran political pundit, Minoru Morita,
described the attitude of Japan's reformist
leader. That was true when he was riding high in
the polls more than three years ago.
True
to form, Koizumi appeared to shrug off the news
this week that his support had hit a record-low
33%, down from 37% in December and well below the
40% (and falling) seen in other recent surveys,
according to a survey by Asahi Shimbun, a liberal
newspaper at times at odds with the prime
minister's policies. The survey was taken last
weekend and released this week.
The
question is whether the prime minister will find a
way to bounce back and breathe new life into an
administration that is long in the tooth as it
approaches its fourth anniversary in April. In
recent Japanese history, four years is a long
time. Moreover, Koizumi's long list of "structural
reforms" to reinvigorate Japan's public and
private sectors has shrunk to a short-list of
significant projects - such as finishing the job
of privatizing the sprawling postal system - while
settling for partial reforms in the area of public
works. This is especially true in the case of his
battle to curb powerful lobbies.
On the
immediate political agenda, the ruling Liberal
Democrats are still aiming for "trophy" projects
to mark the 50th anniversary of the merger of
democratic and conservative factions that formed
the party in 1955, since when the LDP has been out
of power for only eight months. The anniversary is
November 15. For the past five years, the party
has been researching a plan to amend the
constitution, a centerpiece product of the Allied
occupation (1945-51) of Japan after World War II.
Koizumi's ambition is to serve out his
current term as LDP president, which expires in
September 2006. Barring a surprise - such as a
"snap" election, which only he can call - he will
have carved himself out a place as one of the
longest-serving Japanese prime ministers in
history. At the moment, there are no major
elections scheduled for the powerful Lower House
of the Diet (parliament) until 2007.
But
the polls this week do give grave pause for the
prime minister, who is about to move into a
brand-new official residence in Nagata-cho, the
heart of the central-government area.
What
worries the prime minister is that the slippage in
his polls (which peaked at around 84% after April
2001 when Koizumi was named ruler of the Liberal
Democratic Party) may reflect a serious threat to
a number of his critical policy initiatives, upon
which he is counting to build a legacy. The worry
is that Koizumi's weakness in the polls will make
it harder to prevent key policies from being
undermined by the "right wing" of his own party.
According to one former senior government
official, this includes the success of Japan's
participation in the so-called six-party talks,
which were launched two years ago to deal with an
escalation of the nuclear threat posed by North
Korea soon after Japan's first initiative to
normalize relations with its hostile neighbor
across the Sea of Japan (called the East Sea by
Koreans). These on-again, off-again talks involve
North and South Korea, China, Japan, Russia and
the United States.
The importance of
Koizumi's credibility as a leader was emphasized
by a brief, but pointed, eight-minute telephone
exchange this Thursday between the prime minister
and US President George W Bush on North Korea and
other issues - a call initiated by the United
States, according to the Foreign Ministry. They
agreed to try to restart the the talks at an early
date and "shared the view that it is important to
convey a message, through the six-party talks, to
North Korea that the international community is
very serious about the issue of North Korea", the
ministry said. The last talks were held from June
23-26 in Beijing - China hosts the talks.
While the exchange was intended to show
the international community's seriousness about
resolving the North Korean nuclear problem,
Koizumi's problem at home is clearly focused on
the emotional sentiment that has turned sharply
against the North Korean regime of Kim Jong-il
since details emerged over the kidnappings of
Japanese that took place more than two decades
ago. These could lead to strong pressure for
economic sanctions against North Korea. This is
the last thing the prime minister wants on the
rough road to normalization of relations on the
Korean Peninsula - and defusing the nuclear (and
missile) threats posed by the current regime.
For the prime minister, one threat of
falling polls is that a youngish former secretary
general of the LDP, Shinzo Abe, who is widely
viewed as a possible "right wing" successor to
Koizumi in the autumn of 2006, has stirred
anti-North Korean sentiment. Abe is viewed as an
attractive candidate in part because so far the
ruling party has produced few other attractive
alternatives within the LDP. That would upset
delicate relations with China, which are already
strained by Koizumi's visits to the Yasukuni
Shrine in Tokyo, where the spirits of Japan's war
dead (including some war criminals) are said to be
enshrined.
The drop in Koizumi's polls is
in some part a hostile domestic reaction to the
North Korean and Chinese problems.
The
Asahi Shimbun's survey rate for those who do not
support the Koizumi administration was 46%, down
slightly from 47% in the previous poll. The
second-lowest support rate was 36% recorded last
July, after the Upper House election in the Diet.
Analysts say that the most significant
drops in Koizumi's support are among women (once
the core supporters of the Koizumi "boom"), the
elderly, and people who live in rural areas. To
add to Koizumi's woes, all three of these groups
are being wooed by a highly energized opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which made gains
in last July's Upper House election against the
ruling party coalition (which includes the New
Komeito, affiliated with a large Buddhist sect).
In recent times, Koizumi could counter such
opposition by citing his strong ties with the US
for security matters in Asia, but that too appears
to be wearing thin.
According to Asahi,
only 31% of voters in their 60s supported the
Koizumi cabinet, versus 42% in December. Support
from women fell to 30% from 37%, while 33% of
rural voters favored the LDP against 37% in
December. Curiously, those polled still wanted
Koizumi to stay in office until the end of his
term in 2006. The absence of choices to replace
him poses a serious problem of its own.
There were many blanks among 66% of those
asked to name a successor to Koizumi. The leader
of the DPJ, Katsuya Okada, was named by only 7%,
while the LDP's Shinzo Abe drew 7%.
According to the Asahi Shimbun poll, the
privatization of postal services is still
considered an urgent project. But the issues of
pensions, nursing care and planned tax increases
also weight heavily on people's minds.
"A
growing number of people now sense a policy
impasse behind Koizumi's cheerful rhetoric," the
Asahi said in an editorial. Past Asahi polls
suggest that an approval rating below 30% or a
disapproval rating over 50% is usually a sign that
the cabinet's days are numbered. "By this measure,
however, the Koizumi government is not dead yet,"
it said.
"In the past, Koizumi repeatedly
succeeded in lifting his flagging approval ratings
with surprising moves such as a sudden visit to
Pyongyang in September 2002 and by making
unexpected cabinet appointments. He may come up
with another effective scheme to try to regain his
popularity," the paper commented.
Richard Hanson, veteran
correspondent and expert on Japanese economy,
finance and politics is the author of Money
Lords: The Pride and Folly of Japan's Finance
Ministry Elites.
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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