SPEAKING FREELY
Five tough questions for Japan
By Zhiqun Zhu

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

Here are five difficult questions for Japan, Asia and the United States concerning Japan's past, present, future and the intertwined destinies of all three.

1) Is Japan remorseful or unrepentant?
On April 22, 2005, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi openly apologized for Japan's wartime wrongdoings at the Asia-Africa summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, by stating,"In the past, Japan through its colonial rule and aggression caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries, particularly to those of Asian nations. Japan squarely faces these facts of history in a spirit of humility and with feelings of deep remorse and heartfelt apology always engraved in mind."

It is a smart move for Koizumi to apologize before an international audience. He was killing two birds with one stone: kicking the ball back into China's and Korea's courts and attempting to win international sympathy and support for a remorseful Japan. However, Koizumi did not go beyond what his predecessors have said: he used identical expressions made by by prime minister Tomiichi Murayama 10 years ago to mark the 50th anniversary of the end of World War II.

While welcoming Koizumi's statement, both South Korea and China, two major victims of Japan's imperial invasions, duly doubted Japan's sincerity because on another occasion, Koizumi claimed that "each country has its own culture, history and ways of interpreting history". Is his latest apology a change of heart or simply a change of rhetoric? Actions speak louder than words. What Japan's neighbors want is not an apology, but concrete actions from the Japanese leadership, which include calling an invasion an invasion and stopping visiting the Yasukuni Shrine where 14 class-a World War II convicted war criminals are worshipped, along with other soldiers.

That about 80 Japanese lawmakers visited the Yasukuni Shrine just before Koizumi's Jakarta speech does not help dispel suspicions in China, Korea and elsewhere. Koizumi's own position on whether he will revisit the shrine is unclear. But as soon as he visits, the Chinese, the Koreans and others will ask: are you truly remorseful?

2) Is Japan an Asian nation or America's deputy sheriff?
Japan and the United States are close allies. This alliance has become even stronger since 2001 when US President George W Bush and Koizumi became leaders of their two nations. Japan's foreign policy suggests that it seems more interested in following the US leadership and does not seem too interested in establishing good relations with its neighbors.

To a large extent, Japan resembles Great Britain: an island nation off the coast of a continent, viewed as closer to the far distant US across the Atlantic than to its neighbors. US interests in the region are often channeled through and buttressed by Japan. In dealing with China, for example, Japan's policies mirror those of the US.

The US and Japan have declared the Taiwan Strait "a common strategic objective". Japan and the US blocked China's bid to join the Inter-American Development Bank this year in the bank's Okinawa conference in April. Japan is also the only major country that has joined the US to openly oppose the European Union's proposed lifting of weapons embargoes against China.

Japan has even gone a step further. Japan's annual "Diplomatic Blue Book" published on April 15 portrayed China as "a serious problem that threatened Japan's national security, sovereignty and other rights". Even the US has not used such strong language to label China. On the North Korea nuclear issue, Japan, like the US, is understood to also favor a more aggressive and rigid approach than South Korea and China.

In the views of Japan's neighbors, Japan's foreign policy has become more assertive, defiant and recalcitrant. A usually humble Japan is acting as America's deputy sheriff in East Asia, without considering how its policies may affect its relations with its neighbors. The opportunity lost is that Japan may well serve as a "balancer" for regional stability and prosperity. Because of its special relationship with the US and its close trade ties with and geographical proximity to China, Japan can help mediate between China and the US when tensions arise between the two powers. Japan is perhaps more qualified than Australia and South Korea to be a "balancer" in the region. Japan can be a uniter instead of a divider. Unfortunately, Japan is not doing this at all.

3) What are the causes of recent tensions in Northeast Asia?
There are three sets of causes rooted in the past, the present, and probably in the future. The dispute is about history: whether Japan can sincerely face that unfortunate period in history. History cannot be changed, but it's important to remember it and avoid the repetition of tragedies. To whitewash war crimes and to deny Japan's imperial cruelties only show Japan's disrespect for itself and its former victims.

The quarrel is also about the present: who owns those islets and who has the right to fishing and oil drilling in those disputed areas - northeast Asia is where some of the largest economies and trading nations meet. A stable flow of oil, gas and other energy and resources is vital to their continued economic growth. This basic economic competition has been unnecessarily entangled with strong nationalism in each country.

But most important, the fight is over the future: it's a competition between Japan and China for the top spot in East Asia in the 21st century. This is the first time in 2,000 years that China and Japan are both strong nations at the same time. Who will lead Asia in the 21st century? Competition for energy, whether about the oil pipeline from Russia or about drilling rights in the disputed exclusive economic zones in the East China Sea, is a competition about future development and how to stay ahead of the game.

Competition is not bad for development. The US even propped up Germany and Japan through massive economic aid, such as the Marshall Plan, to create two economic rivals after World War II. As a result, not only the former defeated powers experienced economic miracles, the US also benefited enormously: its productivity and innovation drastically improved and it remains the sole super economic and military power. The challenge for China and Japan is how to turn these two rival tigers on the same mountain into two horses running neck-and-neck so that both will gain as a result of a friendly competition.

4) Can broad economic ties bind fragile relations?
China replaced the US as Japan's largest export market in 2004. China's strong growth has helped pull the sluggish Japanese economy out of recession. Sixteen thousand Japanese companies are doing business in China. Japan-China trade stood at about $200 billion in 2004, with a trade surplus of some $20 billion in favor of Japan. Trade with China accounted for nearly 20% of all of Japan's foreign trade in 2004. Japan's economic relationship with China is probably more important to Japan than to China as Japan struggles to keep itself from falling into a recession again.

Japan-South Korea bilateral trade reached $56 billion at the end of 2003 and is still growing. This year 2005 is the Japan-Korea Friendship Year. One issue on the official agendas of the two countries is to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries. China-South Korea trade is also booming. Since 2002, China has been South Korea's largest export market. Some economists and policy analysts in South Korea, China and Japan have suggested that the three countries could form a common market and reach a trilateral FTA that benefits all.

There were some immediate impacts on Japan's economic and political relations with its neighbors as a result of anti-Japanese protests in China and Korea. But by all indications, the economies of Northeast Asian nations are well-integrated and can most likely withstand such occasional disruptions as the recent anti-Japan violence.

5. What is going to happen?
A crisis from recent tensions may have been avoided, but fundamental causes remain. Koizumi's Jakarta statement of regret, no matter what his intentions were, is welcoming. The Hu-Koizumi meeting in Jakarta is also positive as it demonstrates willingness to improve ties at the top level in China and Japan. Beijing and Seoul have taken measures to cool things down. China shut down several anti-Japanese websites and declared that anti-Japanese demonstrations without prior government approval would be illegal. Companies related to China's foreign ministry also offered to repair the damaged Japanese Embassy in Beijing and Japanese consulate in Shanghai. Even on May 4, a significant anniversary of anti-Japanese demonstrations in China, no new protests were allowed to take place.

Japan lives in a suspicious and even hostile neighborhood. Of course it's not all Japan's fault. China, South Korea and the rest of Asia would welcome Japan to play a bigger role in regional economic integration and security. Japan is already a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations-plus Three (China, Japan and Korea) Regional Forum. Everybody wants to move on, but nobody likes Japan to stir up disputes over the past by its insensitive and provocative policies, such as approving a textbook that blatantly distorts history and pays homage to internationally recognized war criminals. That those books are not widely used or that Japan is a democracy do not constitute legitimate excuses for the book's approval by the Japanese government. In addition, Koizumi will have to stop visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, no matter how many reasons he may have and how many justifications he may use to defend his visit. Paying tribute to the war dead is completely different from honoring war criminals.

A nation that cannot own up to its history will not play a bigger role in international politics. A bigger international role for Japan should begin with better relations with its immediate neighbors in northeast Asia. As new US ambassador to Japan J Thomas Schieffer put it: "We believe that Japan speaking with a louder voice in the world will actually increase the chances for peace and security," however, "history is important, and the accurate portrayal of history is important."

Japan is a major part of the problem in recent tensions in northeast Asia; Japan is also key to the solution. It is encouraging that Japan and its neighbors are moving positively, albeit slowly, towards easing tensions and building a common future.

Zhiqun Zhu, PhD, is assistant professor of international political economy and diplomacy at the International College of the University of Bridgeport, Connecticut. He has researched and written extensively on East Asian politics and US-Asian relations. He can be reached at zzhu@bridgeport.edu .

(Copyright 2005 Zhiqun Zhu.)

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.