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Tokyo and its Russian
yoke
By J Sean Curtin
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
returned empty-handed to Tokyo on Tuesday after a
disappointing bilateral summit with Russian
President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. At the heart
of Moscow-Tokyo tensions is a bitter dispute over
a group of islands off the north of Japan which
the former Soviet Union seized at the end of World
War II. The 60-year-old dispute is blocking the
conclusion of a peace treaty between the two
nations and impeding the development of economic
links.
The leaders' failure to make any
concrete advance on this and other key issues
indicates that the current deadlock in
Russo-Japanese relations is not likely to end any
time soon. Putin's proposed Japan trip, initially
scheduled for early 2005, also remains up in the
air. It was hoped that Koizumi's visit for the
commemoration would make headway in resolving the
long-standing island disputes, or at least
demonstrate Tokyo's willingness to find a workable
solution.
Former Russian prime minister
Yegor Gaidar believes the failure to resolve the
issue is to Japan's economic disadvantage, and
allows China to strengthen its economic ties with
Moscow at Tokyo's expense. He told Asia Times
Online, "This situation just means that there are
more opportunities for energetic Chinese
corporations." He added, "For big corporations to
have a meaningful presence in Russia is a very
long process."
Koizumi, along with other world
leaders, was in Moscow to attend a ceremony commemorating
the 60th anniversary of the end of the
World War II. His 30-minute Monday evening audience
with Putin produced little. The two leaders
not only failed to discuss the islands territorial
dispute but also Japan's bid for a permanent
United Nations Security Council seat.
They
did touch on North Korea's nuclear weapons program
and options for dealing with the stalled six-party
talks on the Stalinist state's nuclear ambitions.
It was also confirmed that Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Japanese
counterpart, Nobutaka Machimura, will meet for
talks at the end of May in Tokyo. These
discussions are expected to focus on the thorny
territorial problem. However, since several rounds
of earlier exchanges have ended in stalemate,
these negotiations are unlikely to make any real
progress.
Both sides claim full
sovereignty over what Tokyo refers to as the
Northern Territories and Moscow calls the Southern
Kurils. Since neither party appears willing to
accept a compromise formula to resolve the issue,
political ties are stagnating.
Putin would prefer
to visit Tokyo once a framework for settling
the dispute has been agreed upon. This stance
has so far made setting even a provisional date
impossible. He was originally scheduled to visit in
early 2005 to mark the the 150th anniversary of
the 1855 Treaty of Amity, which established
diplomatic relations between the countries.
After the summit, reporters pressed
Koizumi about when the Russian president might
visit, and the premier optimistically responded,
"Japan is open to the timing.'' He added, "We will
arrange it through our diplomatic channels."
While it is difficult to find any Japanese
commentator who is sure Putin will actually come
to Tokyo this year, professor Alexander
Fedorovskiy, of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Institute of World Economy and International
Relations, is more upbeat. Although he couldn't
predict exactly when, he confidently told Asia
Times Online, "Putin will definitely go to Japan."
However, he was far less optimistic that the
impasse over the islands could be resolved
swiftly.
The Northern Territories/Southern
Kurils dispute revolves around a remote wind-swept
archipelago, located just off the eastern tip of
Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. The group
consists of three large islands, Kunashiri,
Etorofu and Shikotan, and the smaller Habomai
group of islets, all of which were seized by the
Soviet Union in 1945.
Japan has never
renounced its claim to the islands, and the
dispute has prevented Tokyo and Moscow from
signing any peace treaty to formally end
hostilities, a situation which technically leaves
them still at war.
The return of the
little known islands does not arouse any real
sense of passion among the Japanese or Russian
public. However, for nationalist lawmakers in both
countries it is a matter of principle and national
pride.
Partial return on
offer
Since the collapse of the Soviet
Union, Japan has put forward a range of proposals
involving some form of partial territorial return,
often combined with an element of shared
sovereignty.
One such idea envisages
drawing a national borderline between Russia and
the disputed territories, while allowing Moscow
the right to govern the islands for a lengthy
period. There have also been discussions about
returning the Habomai islets and Shikotan Island
to Japan in parallel with separate sovereignty
talks on Kunashiri and Etorofu.
However, the Kremlin
has expressed practically zero interest in any
Japanese initiative. "Our stands on the territorial
issue are completely opposite," is how Lavrov has
summed up the difference between the two
positions.
Moscow is only willing to agree to
the return of the Habomai group of islets and Shikotan
Island. This position is in accord with the
1956 Japan-Soviet joint declaration which stipulated
that both territories will be returned to
Tokyo once a peace treaty is concluded. This
option is currently unacceptable to Tokyo, which
also wants the return of Kunashiri and Etorofu.
Professor Fedorovskiy explained the Russia
angle, "The position is to offer back two islands.
It will be difficult to get through the Russian
parliament, but I am sure he will do it. Putin
will not give back all four islands, but perhaps
in the future there will be some room for
discussion. However, the Japanese position has
become less flexible and much more ridged. Now
they want all four islands, before they said, at
least they said in private, two would be okay."
Koizumi is on record as saying, "Without
the restoration of the four islands, we will not
have a Japan-Russia peace treaty."
Grigoriy Yavlinsky, leader of the
opposition Yabloko Party, and a former Russian
presidential candidate, does not think there is
any hope of Russia and Japan resolving the
dispute. He told Asia Times Online, "No way. No.
There is absolutely no chance. I just cannot see
it happening."
Former prime minister
Gaidar has a more long-term perspective, "I
believe many of the older generation Japanese want
all those islands to be given to them. I hear the
younger generation are not so interested about
this issue, so, give it some more years and the
situation will improve."
Until a
resolution is found, it does not look like
political and economic ties between the two
neighbors will improve much.
Dispute
damaging Japan's regional position
Economic
logic would appear to indicate that it is in
Tokyo's long-term interest to resolve the issue.
Japan already realizes its future energy needs may
depend on competing for supplies of Siberian crude
oil. Both Japan and China are trying to persuade
Russia to give them priority over the route of a
planned crude pipeline from Siberia to Russia's
Pacific Coast. Last year, Tokyo appeared to have
persuaded the Kremlin to build the oil pipeline to
the Pacific port of Nakhodka, the route backed by
Tokyo. Beijing favors a pipeline to Daqing in
northwest China.
However, at the beginning
of May, Moscow signaled the project's first stage
would run to Skovorodino, which is only 70
kilometers from the Chinese border in Russia's
Amur region. This decision appears to favor
Beijing's route south to Daqing.
The
pipeline issue illustrates the importance to Tokyo
of resolving the territorial dispute if it wants
to tap into Russia's extensive energy resources
and counterbalance Beijing's growing economic
clout in the region.
J Sean
Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based
Japanese Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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