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China turns its back on
Japan
By J Sean Curtin
The dramatic last-minute cancellation of a
meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi and visiting Chinese Vice Prime Minister
Wu Yi has plunged relations between Beijing and
Tokyo to a perilous new low. The incident
indicates that recent efforts to improve battered
bilateral ties have collapsed, and highlights the
complete deadlock over Koizumi's contentious
annual pilgrimages to the war-tainted Yasukuni
Shrine, the issue which forms the backbone of
Beijing's criticisms of his administration.
A senior Japanese diplomat, who did not
wish to be identified, told Asia Times Online, "It
is a very worrying development. The Chinese have
thrown down the gauntlet, and the worrying thing
for us is that it looks like Mr Koizumi is going
to pick it up."
Before Wu abruptly called
off her scheduled audience with Koizumi and
prematurely returned to Beijing, she had been on
an eight-day tour of Japan specifically designed
to ease Sino-Japanese tensions. The fact that the
goodwill mission was terminated in such an
undiplomatic fashion does not bode well for
Sino-Japanese relations.
Beijing has given
Koizumi a highly public slap in the face and sent
Tokyo the strongest possible signal of its
diplomatic displeasure. Koizumi's recent comments
about visiting Yasukuni infuriated Beijing and
most likely triggered the latest spat. The episode
appears almost certain to set the two sides on a
collision course over Koizumi's annual shrine
pilgrimages, the most recent of which was in
January 2004.
The Tokyo shrine served as
the spiritual symbol for Japan's wartime military
regime, which was responsible for atrocities in
China. Today it honors the nation's war-dead, but
also controversially deifies 14 class A war
criminals. Beijing says it is insensitive and
inappropriate for a Japanese leader to pay homage
at such an establishment, likening such visits to
a German leader visiting a Nazi memorial.
A Japanese Foreign Ministry source has
told Asia Times Online that he believes Koizumi's
refusal to give an undertaking not visit the
shrine this year led to Wu's sudden return home.
Officially, Tokyo denies any Yasukuni connection
and in a statement Foreign Ministry deputy
spokesman Akira Chiba said, "The Chinese side made
it very specific that it has nothing to do with
Yasukuni." When Koizumi was asked if the Yasukuni
factor lay behind the aborted meeting, he simply
replied, "I have no idea - I have tried not to
negatively affect relations with China." Wu
herself merely explained her lightning departure
by saying, "I have some domestic business to do."
Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesman Kong Quan later said that remarks by
Japanese leaders and commentary in the Japanese
media about the Yasukuni Shrine during Wu's visit
were a factor in canceling her meeting with
Koizumi. He also said, "The Yasukuni Shrine is the
top issue in Sino-Japanese relations."
Wu was the most senior Chinese official to
visit Japan since 2003. The last Chinese head of
state to visit Japan was former prime minister Zhu
Rongji, in October 2000, before Koizumi came to
office.
A series of angry anti-Japan
demonstrations across China last month has brought
Sino-Japanese relations to what Beijing says are
their lowest point since diplomatic ties were
established three decades ago. The protests were
set off by the authorization of a Japanese history
textbook which critics say whitewashes history,
and further fueled by resentment at Japan's bid
for a permanent United Nations Security Council
seat and anger over Koizumi's annual visits to the
Yasukuni Shrine.
There is now real fear in
the business community that ever worsening
political relations will eventually damage booming
economic ties. So far they have not significantly
harmed trade flows that generated a staggering
US$170 billion in 2004. China's rapid economic
growth, 9.5% in 2004, has created a massive demand
for imported goods, which has fueled strong export
growth for Japanese companies.
The
Yasukuni cloud
Last November, Chinese
President Hu Jintao advised Koizumi in blunt terms
not to visit the Yasukuni Shrine in 2005. The year
marks the 60th anniversary of the end of World War
II, which is an especially important milestone for
China because its traditional calendar runs on a
60-year cycle. For Beijing, the Yasukuni visits
have become a line in the sand which Koizumi must
not cross.
After his encounters last year,
first with Hu, and later with Chinese Prime
Minister Wen Jiabao, Koizumi fell unusually silent
about his shrine-going intentions and Beijing
interpreted this to mean he would refrain from
making a pilgrimage this year. However, on May 16,
the day before Wu arrived on her fence-mending
mission, Koizumi strongly hinted that he probably
would visit the shrine this year. During
questioning at the Lower House budget committee,
he declared, "I don't understand why I should stop
visiting Yasukuni Shrine," adding, "I will decide
appropriately when to go."
He robustly
defended his past actions, saying linking his
Yasukuni pilgrimages to militarism "should not be
taken seriously" and stressed that Japan was a
country committed to peace. Ignoring overwhelming
evidence to the contrary, he also denied that his
shrine forays had in any way harmed relations with
Tokyo's neighbors. "Japan's diplomacy has not been
deadlocked nor isolated. It's going fine," he told
disbelieving lawmakers. With more conviction he
explained, "Every country wants to mourn their war
dead, and other countries should not interfere
with the ways countries pay tribute to the war
dead."
In an attempt to justify
pilgrimages to a shrine where war criminals are
also worshiped, he said, "I still don't understand
why it's inexcusable to pay homage and express
gratitude for the war dead as a whole - it's in
the teachings of Confucius, it is the offense and
not the offenders that should be condemned."
Japanese diplomats are now bracing
themselves for a new shrine excursion. One told
Asia Times Online, "Do not be too surprised if Mr
Koizumi visits Yasukuni this autumn." Such a visit
would almost certainly trigger an intense
outpouring of anger in China, adding a dozen more
nails to the coffin of Sino-Japanese relations.
Koizumi's comments seemed timed to undermine Wu's
confidence-building trip before it had even begun.
On arriving in Japan, she politely reiterated
Beijing's stance: "We should carry out what the
Chinese president and the Japanese prime minister
have agreed [to] in Jakarta on promoting
Sino-Japanese relations."
Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokesman Kong Quan directly responded to
Koizumi's remarks by saying, "It is not a question
of worshipping the dead, but rather of how to face
up to history."
The Chinese press took a
far more critical approach, but the Beijing
leadership held back its fire in the hope that
Wu's mission might produce a more conciliatory
tone from Koizumi. However, on Friday he made
similar remarks about visiting Yasukuni and
Beijing lost patience. On Sunday at a meeting in
Beijing, Hu voiced his frustration with Koizumi.
He told visiting Liberal Democratic Party
secretary general Tsutomu Takebe and New Komeito
Party secretary general Tetsuzo Fuyushiba that he
was "concerned over the visits to Yasukuni Shrine,
because it is a place that enshrines convicted
Japanese class A war criminals along with the war
dead."
Although Hu stressed his hope for
improved relations, he also raised two other areas
of serious Sino-Japanese friction: the treatment
of history in Japanese textbooks and Japanese
policy on Taiwan. China's state-run Xinhua News
Agency quoted Hu as saying Tokyo needed to
"correctly deal with the history issue and the
Taiwan issue by firmly learning from the past and
looking to the future". Hu also ominously warned,
"China-Japan ties have developed step by step, but
it would be possible to damage the relations in an
instant."
Japan split on China
policy
The Japanese public appears deeply
divided over Koizumi's confrontational style,
which has pushed Sino-Japanese relations onto the
rocks. According to a recent NHK News poll, 48% of
respondents opposed Koizumi's visits to the
Yasukuni Shrine, while 40% were in favor. A
Yomiuri Shimbun survey found 48% supported or
somewhat supported them, while 45% opposed them.
However, the Yomiuri Shimbun poll found
65%of Liberal Democratic Party voters supported
Koizumi's shrine trips, while the majority of
opposition supporters opposed them. The same
survey also showed deep unhappiness with Beijing's
handling of last month's anti-Japanese
demonstrations in China. Eight-five percent stated
that Koizumi should urge Beijing to apologize and
pay compensation for the angry protests.
Ninety-two percent said they were dissatisfied or
somewhat dissatisfied with Beijing's reaction.
This climate is creating the potential for
very serious political clash, especially if, as
seems likely, Koizumi defies Beijing's warning and
visits Yasukuni this year. Sino-Japanese ties are
in deep trouble, and Wu's unexpected return home
signals that things are unlikely to improve any
time soon.
J Sean Curtin is a
GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese
Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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