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US steps on Japan's
toes
By J Sean Curtin
TOKYO - As the battle over United Nations
reform intensifies, Japan's carefully crafted
strategy for gaining a permanent UN Security
Council (UNSC) seat has been thrown into disarray
by new US proposals, making Tokyo suspicious of
Washington's motives. Late last week, the George W
Bush administration announced its vision for UNSC
reform, which included a new permanent seat for
Japan and another for an unspecified country.
The problem with this seemingly
Tokyo-friendly proposal is that it may harm
Japan's chances and directly conflicts with the
country's own policy of obtaining a seat through
mutual cooperation with Germany, India and Brazil
in the so-called Group of Four (G-4)of other
contenders.
Tokyo believes the G-4 offers
it the only viable way to overcome increasingly
strong Chinese opposition to its candidacy and
sees little hope of US proposals actually being
implemented. It calculates that only the combined
efforts of the G-4 have any chance of gaining the
support of more than 128 UN member states, the
two-thirds of the organization necessary for a
resolution to be adopted.
Since
Washington's plan, which envisages only two new
permanent UNSC members, basically amounts to a
rejection of the G-4 proposals, which demand six
new permanent seats, Tokyo now sees its own
prospects of success as being drastically
diminished. Immensely complicating the matter is
the fact that Japan is also dependent on resolute
US support to fend off Beijing from wielding its
veto.
Additionally, Japan now worries that
it may become the target of criticism within the
G-4 because of overt US backing, which could also
damage its image with developing countries.
A Japanese diplomat, who did not wish to
be identified, summed up Tokyo's predicament: "For
the moment, the US has derailed our [UNSC]
strategy. We face three formidable hurdles. First,
highly organized Chinese opposition to our bid.
Second, the favoritism of the United States, and
third, tensions within the G-4." He added,
"Superficially, the US recommendation looks good
for Japan, but in reality it's less-than-subtle
approach is harming us and strengthens China and
other countries who oppose the G-4 resolution."
Straight-talking Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi said, "Japan can't buy this [US]
proposal. We must stick to cooperation among the
G-4, and the four countries must stand together."
Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura was
more diplomatic. "I don't consider it as a choice
we must make between the two. There could be
another idea acceptable for each nation involved."
However, he acknowledged that US plans created a
dilemma and were "a sudden proposal" that was "so
unexpected".
The main problem is the gulf
between the US and G-4 positions is so wide it
will be extremely difficult to find a compromise
formula. Washington's primary objective is the
effectiveness of the UNSC not its expansion, a
move it believes would make the council more
unwieldy.
Even though US support is a
prerequisite for success, Tokyo is barely
disguising its unhappiness with the
less-than-subtle way Washington has handled the
matter. There is a growing suspicion that the US
is actually trying to kill off the G-4 resolution
by sapping its momentum with prolonged debate. The
US plan also has virtually no chance of gaining
the 128 UN votes required for approval as most of
the developing countries are likely to oppose it.
An editorial in the influential, pro-government
Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper said, "It is unclear
whether the United States will seriously seek to
have its plan implemented."
A US diplomat
told Asia Times Online that these criticisms were
unfair and the US was genuinely committed to UN
reform and permanent UNSC membership for Japan.
"It is hard to understand how the proposals could
be described as unexpected," he said. "They are
exactly in line with what we have been saying in
public over the last few months. Enlargement must
not impede the council's efficiency, and we
support Japan's bid."
Even if Washington
is sincere, the differences between its plans and
those of the G-4, as well as UN Secretary General
Kofi Annan's original proposals, will almost
definitely extend the reform debate, strengthening
those countries that openly oppose the G-4. This
is why many Japanese experts are so skeptical of
the US plan and believe Washington actually wants
to scrap the reform idea altogether.
One
Japanese diplomat commented, "With the United
States publicly opposing the G-4's plan, it will
be extremely difficult for the resolution to
succeed." But not everyone in Tokyo is so
disappointed - a fair number in the governing
Liberal Democratic Party are UN-skeptics. Taro
Aso, minister for internal affairs and
communications, speaking in a private capacity,
told Asia Times Online, "I personally ask myself
whether we actually need to be a permanent member
of the Security Council."
However, UN
insiders say the US announcement changes very
little as most countries are still undecided about
how to approach UNSC reform and everything is
still to play for. One factor behind this seeming
indecisiveness is the UN's own proposals, which
put forward two possible enlargement options:
model A, under which six new permanent members
would be added, and model B, which would enlarge
the council to include eight new non-permanent
seats that would be renewable.
Another
factor fueling hesitation is the fierce lobbying
from the rival camps, which is making many
countries cautious about openly supporting one
side until the situation becomes clearer. Emyr
Jones Parry, Britain's UN ambassador, summed up
the atmosphere for Asia Times Online: "We will
have to wait until the resolution is on the table.
It is only then that we will have a clear idea
what countries think."
Lord David Hannay,
a former UN ambassador and one of the people who
drafted Annan's reform plan, takes a philosophical
approach to UNSC expansion: "Neither does
enlargement assure credibility, nor does failure
to enlarge deprive it totally of credibility. I
think these arguments suffer from too many
absolutes."
He told Asia Times Online, "We
did put forward two proposals and in one of them,
the second, we did not put forward the creation of
any new permanent members."
Thus, while
Japan may not gain a permanent UNSC seat, it could
still obtain a renewable non-permanent one, unless
Beijing vetoes both options or the reform agenda
gets nowhere. The next few months will see intense
global diplomacy.
J Sean Curtin
is a GLOCOM fellow at the Tokyo-based Japanese
Institute of Global Communications.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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