Koizumi: A modern-day samurai?
By Hisane Masaki

TOKYO - It's a riveting samurai drama now on the airwaves. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is playing Oda Nobunaga, a legendary 16th-century hero who was instrumental in unifying Japan after decades of strife among rival warlords and one of a few historical figures the Japanese prime minister holds in the highest regard.

Known as an ardent fan of traditional Japanese arts, kabuki and noh (forms of classical theater) as well as operas and movies, Koizumi knows how to perform. He is actually performing excellently. He also has his appearance on his side: he is said to resemble Hollywood star Richard Gere, who agrees they look similar.

The audience applauds Koizumi's bravery, becomes fascinated by his unorthodox and often eccentric way of thinking and behaving, and nod in agreement at his hardheartedness as a necessary evil for a better society. Among the audience impressed by Koizumi's performance may be Kotaro Koizumi, a popular actor and the single prime minister's eldest son from a marriage he ended 23 years ago.

But Japanese politics are not a real samurai drama, of course. It's about the combative prime minister's relentless, retaliatory attacks on renegade lawmakers within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which have been launched as part of a campaign strategy for a general election he called for September 11. Although official campaigning only kicks off on August 30, the election battle is already underway and heating up day by day in the hot summer.

"What Mr Koizumi is doing [against rebellious LDP lawmakers who voted against his postal system reform package] is just like the attack by Nobunaga's forces on Enryakuji Temple," one senior LDP lawmaker was quoted as saying. His view has been echoed by many in political circles. In the 1571 attack, Oda Nobunaga's forces set afire and burned the temple on Mount Hiei near Kyoto, which housed those who sided with his enemy's forces and killed about 4,000 priests and civilians.

Oda Nobunaga lived in a Japan governed by the law of the jungle, with inferiors overthrowing their superiors. After his death, Oda Nobunaga's dream of unifying a fragmented country was inherited by Toyotomi Hideyoshi and Tokugawa Ieyasu.

There is a set of haiku poems that well explains differences in personality among the three legendary heroes, citing their imaginary attitudes toward cuckoos, migratory birds whose songs were loved and highly valued by Japanese people in ancient times. In the haiku poems, Toyotomi Hideyoshi said, "If cuckoos do not sing, I will make them do so." Tokugawa Ieyasu, founder of the Tokugawa Shogunate, said, "If cuckoos do not sing, I will wait for them to do so." By comparison, Oda Nobunaga said, "If cuckoos do not sing, I will kill them."

Koizumi's brinkmanship
Koizumi took a political gamble by dissolving the Lower House of the diet, Japan's parliament, on August 8, only hours after postal privatization bills, the centerpiece of his reform program, were voted down by the Upper House by a vote of 125 to 108. Although Koizumi's LDP and its coalition partner, the New Komeito Party, together hold a majority in the Upper House, a larger number of LDP lawmakers than the party leadership had expected voted against the bills. Koizumi cannot dissolve the Upper House, so he dissolved the lower chamber in an effort to deal with dissident LDP members and seek a fresh mandate from voters.

The Upper House rejection of the bills followed weeks of fierce internal feuding within the LDP between supporters of Koizumi's reform programs and what he calls "old-guard conservatives" or "resistance forces". The bills were passed on July 5 by the Lower House, the more powerful of the two diet chambers, on the strength of the LDP-led coalition's majority, but by a margin of only five votes because of a revolt by dozens of LDP lawmakers.

Koizumi, who had claimed that the killing of the postal bills would be tantamount to a no-confidence vote against him, was quick to carry out his threat to dissolve the Lower House for a snap general election to seek a new mandate for reform programs, especially his pet project to privatize Japan Post, effectively the world's largest financial institution with about US$3 trillion in assets.

After calling the election, Koizumi took another equally bold political gamble. At the behest of the prime minister, the LDP leadership took an unprecedented punitive action against the rebellious lawmakers: excluded from its list of official candidates were the 37 Lower House members who voted against the bills in that chamber's vote.

One of the dissenters has already decided not to run in the election, saying she has no chance of winning as an independent candidate. Under the current single-seat/proportional representation system, which was introduced in the mid-1990s to achieve "party-oriented and policy-oriented" politics as part of political reform with a view to eventually ushering in a two-party system, it is quite difficult, if not impossible, to win in a Lower House election as an independent candidate.

Koizumi, who concurrently serves as LDP president, went even further. He instructed the LDP leadership to field official LDP candidates against all dissenters. These candidates are widely dubbed as sikyaku, or assassins, in the media and political circles.

The LDP leadership has already chosen some high-profile sikyaku candidates to run in constituencies where rebellious lawmakers were elected in the previous, October 2003, vote. Among those candidates are the popular female Environment Minister, Yuriko Koike, who will run in the Tokyo number 10 single-seat constituency against Koki Kobayashi, a close aide to Shizuka Kamei, former chairman of the LDP's Policy Research Council and vocal leader of the rebellious camp.

The LDP faction led by Kamei has split down the middle into two groups - one of lawmakers who voted for the postal bills and the other of those who voted against. Of the 47 LDP lawmakers in the Kamei faction, 24 voted against the bills - half in the Lower House and the other half in the Upper House.

The Kamei faction members of the Lower House who voted for the bills complained about having to run in the upcoming election with Kamei as their leader. Kamei was forced to resign as faction chairman on August 15, generating speculation that he might form a new political party with some other LDP dissenters, including Tamisuke Watanuki, former Lower House speaker who belongs to the largest party faction led by former prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto.

Watanuki and Kamei announced Wednesday the formation of a new political party in preparation for the September 11 election. But only two of the other LDP lawmakers who voted against the postal bills joined the fledgling Kokumin Shinto party. The four left the LDP earlier in the day. One DPJ lawmaker also joined the new party after also leaving the opposition party earlier in the day.

Other ostracized LDP dissenters are now in a diaspora-like situation. Many of them still want to return to their old haunts without joining any new party that might be formed by Kamei. But that will be impossible as long as Koizumi stays in power.

When he roared into office in April 2001, Koizumi vowed to "destroy" the LDP if it refused to reform. On August 8, the time seemed to have finally come for him to follow through on his campaign pledge to "destroy" the party that has ruled Japan almost uninterrupted for 60 years since the end of World War II.

Koizumi's political gamble in calling a snap election is apparently aimed at transforming the LDP into a truly reformist party, even if it means a loss of power. His expulsion of rebellious LDP lawmakers by not endorsing them as official party candidates drew criticism from them as "Koizumi cleansing", "political crackdown on opponents" or "political genocide".

Some LDP politicians, including even those who support the bills, had believed that his threat to call a new vote was nothing more than a bluff aimed at discouraging LDP opponents from voting against the bills. But they were wrong. Koizumi showed no hesitance at all to call a new vote, even at the risk of losing power to the largest opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).

The lionesque-haired Koizumi apparently wanted to demonstrate that he truly deserves his nickname "Lionheart" and that he is not a "paper tiger" or a "toothless tiger". If he had reneged on his vow to call a snap election, he would probably have been reduced to a lame duck, more than a year before the expiration of his term as LDP president - and thereby as prime minister - in September next year.

When Koizumi dissolved the Lower House, many pundits said the prime minister's political fortune was doomed to death, with some even describing his decision as political suicide.

To be sure, the LDP's deep division has given the main opposition DPJ a windfall chance to oust the LDP from power. The day after the dissolution of the Lower House, the elated DPJ leader Katsuya Okada went so far as to declare that he would step down if his party failed to grab the opportunity to take power

. But as things now stand, the astute Koizumi seems to be gaining some ground in what was initially seen as a losing battle for the reins of government, making it even more difficult to predict the outcome of the vote.

Opinion polls suggest that Koizumi's gamble of turning on rebels within his own LDP is paying off. A majority of respondents approved of his decision to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election and his public approval rating has also risen sharply. The surveys by the Mainichi and Asahi dailies show that his cabinet approval rating rose nine points to 46% and five points to 45%, respectively.

The political drama scripted by Koizumi himself has received wide media coverage. In the drama, a spotlight has been put on the LDP leadership and rebellious LDP lawmakers engaged in the fierce internal feuding. As a result, the DPJ has been pushed to the backstage and left invisible to the audience. This has helped boost the LDP prospects in the election at the expense of the DPJ.

According to a survey taken by the Yomiuri newspaper immediately after the dissolution of the Lower House, public support for the DPJ was 18.3%, less than half the 40.1% for the LDP.

The DPJ is becoming increasingly concerned about the lack of public attention for the party. Former DPJ leader Naoto Kan frankly acknowledged on a TV program: "Internal fighting within the LDP is interesting. Regrettably, it has overshadowed the DPJ."

Koizumi has made it clear that the LDP will make postal privatization a major issue. "Although the diet concluded that postal privatization is not necessary, I would like to ask the public again: which will you choose - reformists or standpatters?" Koizumi asked shortly after calling the election.

The prime minister apparently wants to make postal privatization effectively the only election issue to keep his LDP on the offensive. He said on August 15 that the poll would be the first referendum on whether to privatize the country's postal savings system and reiterated his 2001 campaign pledge that he would "destroy the old LDP and create a new LDP" through the vote.

The LDP takes the DPJ and other opposition parties, as well as rebellious LDP lawmakers, to task for killing the postal bills in the diet. Koizumi apparently hopes to produce the evolving political drama as a battle between reformist forces, represented by the LDP and New Komeito, and anti-reformist ones, represented by the DPJ, other much smaller opposition parties and rebellious LDP lawmakers.

Koizumi has skillfully manipulated the political drama now on air to make voters sympathetic to him rather than to opposition lawmakers and the rebels within his own party. If it plays into the hands of the shrewd and tactful Koizumi, the DPJ might not be able to perform as strongly as expected, some analysts say.

Possible scenarios
The DPJ has become increasingly popular, especially in urban areas. In the last Upper House election held in July last year, in which half the 242 seats were up for grabs, the biggest opposition party garnered 50 seats, one more than the 49 seats the LDP secured. The LDP-New Komeito party coalition managed to retain its majority in the diet chamber, however. The New Komeito party, backed by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai, which boasts 8 million members, won 11 seats.

In the upcoming election, all 480 Lower House seats are up for grabs. The LDP has 212 seats going into the vote, excluding the 37 seats held by dissenters, and the New Komeito party has 34. The LDP and New Komeito party thus have a combined 246 seats, only five seats more than the majority of 241. The DPJ has 175 seats going into the election.

Although the DPJ is expected to make significant strides, it needs to increase its strength by at least 66 seats from the current 175 seats to gain a majority on its own. It is even possible that neither the LDP-Komeito coalition nor the largest opposition DPJ will win a majority in the Lower House, plunging the country into prolonged political turmoil and prompting a fresh round of political realignments.

Talk of four possible scenarios is rife in the Japanese media and political circles. They are:
1) The LDP-New Komeito coalition secures a majority in the Lower House and Koizumi stays on as LDP president and prime minister. In this case, the LDP will reintroduce the postal privatization bills to a special diet session to be convened immediately after the vote, party officials say. But even then the LDP leadership will have to face the daunting task of persuading those Upper House lawmakers from the LDP who voted against the postal bills to change their minds and vote yes next time.

2) The LDP-New Komeito coalition fails to secure a majority and Koizumi steps down as LDP president and prime minister. Koizumi himself says that he will stand down if the coalition fails to win a majority. The two-party coalition then would form a new government under a new prime minister with the help of some of the rebellious LDP lawmakers who come back to the diet through reelection. In this case, among the most likely candidates to succeed Koizumi are Shinzo Abe, acting LDP secretary general; Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and former chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda.

3) The DPJ wins a majority and forges a government alone. In this case, DPJ leader Okada will be the next prime minister.

4) The DPJ fails to win a majority alone, but the DPJ forms a coalition government with the communist and socialist parties, and possibly with some of those lawmakers who were expelled from the LDP but were fortunate enough to be re-elected. But a DPJ-led coalition would very likely face a political crisis of its own very soon because it still lacks the majority in the Upper House needed to push through bills to pursue its policy agendas.

Koizumi's roots
"It [postal privatization] is my belief. I am even ready to be killed [for that]," Koizumi told former prime minister Yoshiro Mori rather bombastically on the eve of the Upper House vote.

Mori, an ally of Koizumi and chairman of the LDP faction to which the prime minister had belonged before taking office, unsuccessfully tried to dissuade him from calling a snap election. When the frustrated Mori said, "You are more than just an eccentric," Koizumi replied, "It's all right." Koizumi threw down the gauntlet the following day.

Koizumi, a lover of the Western movie High Noon, dies hard. Despite his most serious political crisis as prime minister, the 63-year-old never flinches, continues to put on a brave face and even looks more confident and happier than before.

"The more bashing he receives, the more Mr Koizumi gets excited," Shusei Tanaka, a former economic planning agency chief, said in a recent interview published by the Yomiuri newspaper. "He never tries to avoid power struggle."

The strong-willed, combative and maverick prime minister has apparently inherited the mettle of his grandfather Matajiro and father Junya.

Matajiro Koizumi, a steeplejack-turned-politician, held the post of communications minister. He was nicknamed "tattoo minister" because of a dragon tattooed all over his body. Junya Koizumi, a former defense agency chief, was born in Kagoshima, a southern Japanese prefecture that used to be the territory of the Satsuma Domain during the Edo Period. The Satsuma Domain, reputed for the bravery and manliness of its warriors, produced many Meiji Revolution heroes, such as Saigo Takamori and Okubo Toshimichi.

The lives of a few historical heroes other than Oda Nobunaga may have helped form Koizumi's temperament as well. In addition to Oda Nobunaga, Koizumi admires such revolutionary heroes as Yoshida Shoin, Takasugi Shinsaku and Sakamoto Ryoma. All three are 19th-century heroes who made great contributions to the 1868 Meiji Revolution that restored the emperor.

Koizumi respects Yoshida Shoin, a scholar and patriot, for the courage with which he stuck to his convictions during turbulent times, his selflessness and his brilliance as an educator. Yoshida Shoin became a mentor of many young men who played key roles in bringing about the Meiji Revolution, including Takasugi Shinsaku, who led an imperial loyalist militia called Kiheitai.

Sakamoto Ryoma played the crucial role of go-between to reconcile and form an alliance between two major feuding domains - the Satsuma and Choshu Domains - in the fight against the Tokugawa Shogunate.

All three died relatively young. Yoshida Shoin was beheaded in prison by the Tokugawa Shogunate when he was 29. Takasugi Shinsaku died due to illness at the age of 29. Sakamoto Ryoma was assassinated when he was 33.

At least for now, the die-hard prime minister's high-risk political gamble seems to be paying off. But there are still several weeks before the moment of truth, and public opinion is volatile and Koizumi is far from assured victory. An inch ahead is darkness. The fate of Oda Nobunaga might be a good historical example. As his long-cherished dream of unifying Japan was coming true, the warlord was killed by the rebellious troops of long-time retainer Akechi Mitsuhide in a coup at Honnoji Temple in Kyoto.

Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on international politics and economy.

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