Koizumi could yet rain on China's
parade By J Sean Curtin
BEIJING - For the past two months it has
been almost impossible for anyone in China, even
in the most far-flung corners of the Middle
Kingdom, not to be fully aware that this year
marks the 60th anniversary of China's victory in
its hard-fought "War of Resistance against
Japanese Aggression" during World War II.
A series of spectacular mass events was
held in Beijing last weekend to mark the grand
climax of 60 days of nationwide commemorative
events. The Chinese leadership also took the
opportunity to stress that Beijing expects Tokyo
to handle the painful issue of its wartime
suffering with the utmost sensitivity.
Seemingly disregarding the fact that the
whole of China was focused on his country's
wartime record, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi also on the weekend renewed speculation that
he
will again pay homage at a controversial Shinto
shrine which honors convicted Class-A war
criminals responsible for atrocities in China. His
announcement has already created fresh bilateral
tension, and if Koizumi wins Sunday's general
election, the current China-Japan political rift
looks certain to continue.
Public opinion
polls one week out suggest Koizumi is headed for a
resounding victory, one that could allow him and
his Liberal Democratic Party to govern without its
coalition partner, the New Komeito Party. The LDP
remains strongly ahead, with 42.2% of voters
saying they support the party, compared to 18.5%
for the largest opposition Democratic Party of
Japan, though the Democrats are starting to narrow
the gap, a weekend poll by the daily Yomiuri
Shimbun showed.
Meanwhile, though the
Japanese election is currently being fought on the
domestic issue of postal privatization, its result
may have a bigger impact on its relationship with
China.
Saturation Chinese media coverage
of the 60th anniversary along with a host of
regional events and national ceremonies have
ensured that the full tragedy of the historic
milestone has been vividly imprinted on the
Chinese national consciousness. Awareness of the
terrible acts committed by Japan during its brutal
occupation has probably never been greater,
creating a potentially volatile atmosphere for
bilateral ties. The significantly heightened level
of anti-Japanese sentiment makes it imperative for
Japanese leaders to tread carefully, something
Koizumi seems reluctant to do.
There is
simmering resentment about Koizumi's annual
pilgrimages to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, which
although it is primarily dedicated to the
country's war-dead also controversially honors 14
Class-A war criminals, including Tokyo's notorious
wartime leader General Hideki Tojo.
Chinese anger about what is perceived to
be the Japanese leadership's lack of genuine
remorse over Tokyo's wartime invasion was one of
the main driving forces behind a series of ugly
anti-Japanese protests that swept China in April.
Chinese President Hu Jintao and Premier
Wen Jiabao have both personally told Koizumi not
to go to Yasukuni during the sensitive 60th
anniversary year, a request he has so far
observed. However, at the weekend, buoyed by polls
that suggest he will win the Lower House election,
Koizumi strongly hinted that he would probably
visit the shrine this year, risking a fierce
Chinese backlash.
In response to a TV
debate question about whether he would visit
Yasukuni this year, Koizumi replied: "I can only
say that I will make the appropriate decision. If
you look at what I have been doing up until now, I
think you'll understand what I will do."
Since he has visited the shrine every year
since taking office in April 2001, his comments
seemed to imply he intends to visit the shrine
again this year if reelected. Such a pilgrimage
would set him on a collision course with the
Chinese leadership, deeply anger ordinary Chinese
citizens and probably lead to another series of
anti-Japanese demonstrations.
Koizumi also
said during weekend TV appearances that it was
inappropriate for foreign powers to try to
influence his personal decision to pay tribute to
the Japanese war dead at Yasukuni.
Hu
warns Tokyo At the same time Koizumi made
his remarks, Hu was concluding the 60th
anniversary events with a nationally televised
speech. He underlined the deep sense of trauma
caused by the Japanese invasion and how Beijing
expected Tokyo to handle the issue with the
greatest of sensitivity.
Hu said, "The
brazen aggression against China by Japanese
militarists plunged the country into an
unprecedented national crisis." He added, "At this
critical juncture, when threatened by national
subjugation and racial extinction, the Chinese
people refused to be slaves and rose up in a
heroic resistance."
Some parts of his
address seemed directly aimed at Koizumi and
Japanese revisionists. The Chinese president
bitterly attacked attempts to whitewash Japanese
history and moves to rehabilitate the spirits of
Class-A war criminals he described as "having been
condemned by history". Hu also underlined Chinese
disgust at those elements in Japan that seek to
deny the scale of the wartime slaughter and the
inhuman crimes committed by Japanese troops.
He sternly warned, "Such actions have not
only breached the Japanese government's commitment
regarding historical issues, but also shaken the
political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations,
thus badly hurting the feelings of the Chinese and
other Asian peoples concerned."
In a clear
swipe at the Koizumi administration, Hu spelled
out that China expected the Japanese leadership to
"translate the apologies and remorse they have
expressed for the war of aggression into concrete
actions".
He counterbalanced his demands
by emphasizing the positive aspects of Beijing's
position. "We are committed to promoting
Sino-Japanese friendship and cooperation in the
21st century with real actions, so as to ensure
sound and steady growth of Sino-Japanese relations
and lasting friendship between the two peoples for
generations to come," the president said.
Hu also stressed that China's emphasis on
the past did not in anyway mean it wanted to
"continue the hatred". He explained, "Instead, we
want to draw lessons from history and be
forward-looking." He added, "Only by remembering
the past and drawing lessons from it can one avoid
the repetition of historical tragedies."
After a July and August packed full of
anniversary events and reinforced by a media
blitz, Hu's speech perfectly resonated with the
national mood.
Chinese media focus on
Japan war Even in the remotest of China's
provinces, TV channels have been jam packed with
documentaries, dramas and other programming
focusing on what is frequently described as "the
most brutal war in human history" and
semi-officially referred to as the "World
Anti-Fascist War".
Even casual viewers
could not escape being moved by highly emotive
programming largely consisting of graphic
documentaries and gripping war-related drama
series. The tear-jerking testimony of elderly
women who as young innocent girls were forced to
serve as Japanese sex slaves and the depiction of
Chinese suffering and humiliation during the
occupation have strengthened the already strong
sense of national resentment about Tokyo's wartime
actions and the need for genuine remorse.
China has been producing wartime dramas
and documentaries for decades, but this year has
released a far greater volume. Several of the TV
dramas have masterfully captured the almost
unimaginable degree of human misery Japanese
troops inflicted on ordinary Chinese people. After
watching such gut-wrenching productions it is hard
not to come to the conclusion that even today
Japan is honor-bound to show the deepest remorse
for its past actions as a prerequisite for good
relations with the Middle Kingdom.
China
commemorated its wartime struggle against Japan
with a series of high-profile events focusing
around a number of evenly spread anniversaries,
including the Communist Party's foundation day
(July 1), the anniversary of the Marco Polo Bridge
incident, which triggered the Sino-Japanese War
(July 7), the Chinese People's Liberation Army
foundation day (August 1) and, most significant of
all, the day Japan surrendered (August 15). The
two-month long stint of events culminated in
Beijing over the weekend in a series of truly
spectacular events, in which the Chinese
leadership skillfully brought together all the
various strands of the last two months of
commemorative events.
Given the present
depth of Chinese feeling, if Koizumi wins
reelection and visits the Yasukuni Shrine this
year, it is difficult not to envisage an extremely
strong Chinese reaction, which is certain to
damage already severely strained relations.
J Sean Curtin is a GLOCOM fellow
at the Tokyo-based Japanese Institute of Global
Communications.
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