TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi's government has sent two early,
domestically unpopular Christmas presents to US
President George Bush - a one-year extension of
Japanese troop deployment in Iraq and a resumption
of American beef imports.
The government
decided on Monday to lift a ban on beef imports
from the US, imposed two years ago following the
discovery of the first case of mad cow disease in
Washington state. The stakes
are high
for the US cattle industry. Before the import ban,
Japan was the largest overseas market for US beef,
buying more than US$1 billion worth in 2003, and
Washington had been pushing for a quick resumption
of imports.
The beef trade had been the
only thorny issue in otherwise serene economic and
trade relations between Japan and the US. The
government also decided to resume beef imports
from Canada, which had been banned since a case of
mad cow disease was found in Alberta in May 2003.
The Japanese decision to resume American
beef imports came four days after it received a
report from the independent Tokyo-based Food
Safety Commission recommending a resumption of
imports of beef from cattle aged 20 months or
younger on condition all contamination-prone
parts, such as brains and spinal cord, be removed.
The disease has never been found in cows that
young. The US will be able to resume exports of
beef from cows aged 20 months old or younger to
Japan without testing them for mad cow disease.
The commission made the recommendation
after hearing public comments in a report compiled
by a panel of prion (abnormal protein) experts who
found little difference in the risk of infection
from mad cow disease between Japanese or American
beef. It is expected that American beef will begin
to reach Japanese consumers at retail stores and
restaurants around Christmas.
Meanwhile,
the Koizumi government received the commission
report recommending a resumption of American beef
imports the same day it decided to extend for
another year the deployment of Self-Defense Forces
(SDF) in the southern Iraqi city of Samawah as
part of the US-led coalition, prolonging Tokyo's
largest military mission since World War II.
The SDF mission in Iraq is quite unpopular
among Japanese. Opinion polls taken before the
mission's extension indicate a majority of
Japanese objected to the extension. For Bush, who
is under fire at home over Iraq, the Japanese
decision to continue its SDF deployment is a
welcome sign of support.
Koizumi has been
one of the staunchest supporters of Bush's "war on
terror" and invasion of Iraq. Despite strong
objections at home, his government since early
2004 has stationed about 600 non-combat SDF troops
in Samawah on a humanitarian and reconstruction
mission, such as repairing schools and purifying
water. The mission was to have expired December14.
The extension does not require the SDF
troops to remain in Iraq for another full year,
however. Tokyo is considering withdrawing SDF
troops about the middle of next year as British
and Australian soldiers in charge of security in
and around Samawah and protection of SDF personnel
also plan to pull out of Iraq then. Japan has also
sent naval ships to fuel US-led coalition vessels
in the Indian Ocean as part of coalition
operations in Afghanistan. In late October, the
naval mission was extended for another year.
Is Japan's decision meaty for the
US? Mad cow disease and terrorism are not
related. But the two issues shocked and spooked
Japanese people almost simultaneously. Mad cow
disease, or bovine spongiform encephalopathy
(BES), has been found in more than two dozen
countries, including Japan, where the first
infected cow was found on September 10, 2001, the
day before the terrorist attacks on the World
Trade Center and the Pentagon.
Japan has
found 20 domestic cases of the disease. Eating
meat products contaminated with infected tissue is
linked to a variant, Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease,
which has killed more than 150 people worldwide,
mostly in Britain, where there was an outbreak in
the 1980s and 1990s. US Agriculture Secretary Mike
Johanns indicated on December 9 that the US was
likely to lift its own ban on imports of Japanese
beef, imposed since September 2001, alongside
Japan's action.
Following the discovery of
its first case of mad cow disease, Japan has
tested every domestic cow. Japan initially
demanded that the US beef up safety inspection of
its own animals by doing the same. The US rejected
the demand, claiming that blanket testing of the
huge American herd was not only costly but
scientifically unnecessary.
The two
countries agreed in principle in October 2004,
shortly before the US presidential election, on a
Japanese resumption of American beef imports. But
an actual import resumption had been delayed
because the Food Safety Commission spent more time
than the Japanese government seemed to think
necessary amid rising fears among Japanese
consumers about the safety of American beef.
The Bush administration faced strong
pressure from Congress and American cattle
industry, which, frustrated by the delayed import
resumption, called for trade sanctions against
Japan. In late October, a group of 21 Republican
and Democrat senators submitted to Congress a bill
calling for punitive tariffs worth $2.7 billion
annually on Japanese imports unless Tokyo lifted
its import ban on American beef by December 15.
The Congressional sponsors of the bill claimed the
American cattle industry suffered that amount of
damage due to the Japanese import ban.
To
be sure, the long-awaited Japanese decision must
be good news for the US. But it will not mean the
end of the protracted trade dispute. The lifting
of an import ban will not automatically result in
a sharp surge in American beef imports. It will
still take a few years or longer for American beef
imports to return to the pre-ban levels.
Cows that can be certified as under 20
months are estimated to account for less than 10%
of all cows slaughtered in the US for human
consumption. Japanese industry officials estimate
that despite the lifting of the two-year-old ban,
imports of American beef will be only about 20% of
the pre-ban levels.
Johanns said in early
November he would ask Japan to raise the age limit
of the cows to 30 months. The US is expected to
keep up the pressure on Japan to ease import
conditions, referring to standards set by the
World Organization for Animal Health, which
stipulate the need for free trade in boneless beef
from cattle aged up to 30 months.
Two days
after Johanns called for an easing of the import
conditions, his Japanese counterpart, Shoichi
Nakagawa, indicated it would be too early to
discuss the matter. "Even if we receive a formal
request [from the US to increase the age limit to
30 months], we are nowhere near a situation in
which we can reply 'OK. We will consider it'."
Are Japanese consumers
cowards? The decision to resume American
beef imports drew mixed reactions in Japan. While
the food industry generally welcomes the decision,
finicky Japanese consumers, still wary of
once-popular American beef, do not appear to be
ready to dig into American steaks.
Before
Japan imposed the ban, American beef imports
totaled about 250,000 tons annually, accounting
for about 45% of the overall Japanese beef imports
and a quarter of the overall Japanese beef market.
Australian beef has filled the gap created by the
absence of American beef.
Yoshinoya
D&C Co, the nation's largest gyudon
beef-on-rice dish restaurant chain, is preparing
to put the signature dish back on the menu within
several weeks. Yoshinoya saw its first red ink in
24 years in the 2004 business year, with a net
loss of 758 million yen (US$6.3 million) due to
the import ban, even though it had secured 1.93
billion yen in profit in the first six months.
The firm reported in October that its
group posted a net loss of 467 million yen in the
March-August first half of the business year due
to the US beef import ban and projected for the
entire business year a net loss of 500 million yen
and pretax profit of 1.7 billion yen on projected
sales of 122.6 billion yen. Its full-year
performance could improve as a result of the
resumption of American beef. Amid expectations of
an imminent resumption of American beef imports,
share prices of Yoshinoya have been rising sharply
in recent days.
While welcoming the
government decision, yakiniku beef barbecue
as well as gyudon restaurants are still
concerned that they will not be able to get as
much American beef as they want. The Japan Food
Service Association has joined the US government
in urging the Japanese government to ease import
conditions to make more American beef available in
the Japanese market.
Meanwhile, recent
opinion polls show a majority of Japanese are
opposed to a resumption of American beef imports
and unwilling to eat American beef. A survey by
the Asahi Shimbun, a leading national daily,
indicated that about two-thirds of the respondents
were against lifting an import ban and that just
as many said they would not want to eat American
beef even if it comes back on the market.
Another survey by Kyodo News agency showed
that just over 75% of respondents said they would
be unwilling to eat US beef, compared with 21.2%
who said they would consume it. In the Kyodo poll,
62.5% of the respondents who said they would shun
US beef cited safety concerns, while 20.6% said
there was no need to eat US beef due to the
availability of domestic and Australian beef.
The Food Safety Commission's panel of
prion experts is still concerned that the US might
not strictly abide by the agreed requirement. In
compiling the report concluding there is little
difference in the risk of infection from mad cow
disease between Japanese or American beef, the
panel declared that unless the two import
conditions - removal of the so-called specified
risk material (brains and spinal cord) and the age
limit - are met, the import ban should be
re-imposed.
Members of the Food Safety
Commission said the safety of American beef would
depend on US inspectors following strict
guidelines.
"Much of it is dependent on a
promise between two countries," commission
chairman Masaaki Terada said. Yasuhiro Yoshikawa,
head of a commission panel of prion experts, said
more than 50% of the public comments collected in
the hearings were against resumption of imports.
Still, he defended the commission's findings. "The
issues raised in the public hearings were all
adequately debated within the prion research
committee," he said. "I believe that as
specialists, we took enough time to analyze these
issues."
Johanns said the US would
maximize efforts to regain Japanese consumers'
confidence in US beef. "I can assure the Japanese
consumer beyond the shadow of a doubt that [US]
beef is safe. We know that it's been a long
process, and we have work to do with consumers.
We're going to do everything we can to accomplish
confidence in US beef."
Dai-ichi Life
Research Institute, affiliated with Dai-ichi
Mutual Life Insurance Company, says in a recent
report the suspension of beef imports from North
America pushed consumer prices of meat in Japan up
2.9% in 2004 from 2003 and beef consumption
dropped 8.3% as Japanese consumers held off eating
beef.
As a result, the beef-import ban in
2004 shaved 106.1 billion yen, or 0.02%, off the
Japanese gross domestic product (GDP), a total
output of an economy. The report estimates lifting
the ban on North American beef will result in a
recovery of imports to 17% of the pre-ban levels
and add only 17.9 billion yen to Japan's GDP in
2006.
Hisane Masaki is a
Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's
e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com
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