Enhanced cooperation for missile defense
dominated a meeting between Japanese and US
defense officials last Thursday. Other topics
included realignment of US forces stationed in
Japan and Japan's cooperation in the "global war
on terrorism", but the main focus was on building
a joint missile-defense shield.
Just as
Russia and China are forging closer strategic and
economic ties, Japan and the United States are
strengthening
their longtime partnership.
These coinciding developments signal the rise of a
new strategic configuration in Northeast Asia with
wide-ranging and important military and
geopolitical implications.
Two main
geopolitical engines are driving this delicate
twofold evolution: first, the United States'
expansion of influence in Eastern Europe,
including its plans to incorporate Ukraine and
Georgia into the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO), is pushing Russia toward
China as a counterbalancing move; second, China's
rise as a potential East Asian hegemon is
prompting Japan to beef up its military
capabilities and strengthen its ties with the US,
Taiwan and Australia (see A little NATO against China,
March 17).
Japan wants cutting-edge
missile-defense technology from the US to counter
perceived new threats from China and North Korea.
Thus on December 23, Tokyo formally announced it
would join with the US to develop a sea-based
ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability (Jane's
Defense Industry, January 3). With approval from
the Japanese Security Council and the cabinet, the
way was open for joint US-Japanese production of a
next-generation anti-ballistic missile system. The
budget for such a project foresees spending more
than 3 billion yen (US$25 million) for the initial
stages of the program in 2006, and 700 million yen
for further joint research.
Such a program
fits a pattern of increasing technical cooperation
and spending on armaments. Last year the US sold
$1 billion worth of SM-3 missiles to Japan,
according to a report to the US Congress prepared
by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
Moreover, as the Associated Press reported last
week, "in 2003, Japan became the first US ally to
buy the latest in missile defense technology when
it upgraded the Aegis radars already installed on
board its naval destroyers". Tokyo also bought
SM-3 interceptors from the United States.
On March 8 the United States and Japan
successfully tested an interceptor missile off
Kauai in Hawaii, "further advancing their ability
to shoot down enemy ballistic missiles in
mid-flight. The test aimed to check how well a
Japanese-designed clamshell nose cone separated
from a US-designed interceptor missile. It was the
first US missile-defense flight test to use
Japanese components," the Honolulu Star Bulletin
reported.
The US Missile Defense Agency
explained: "This flight test mission, entitled
'Joint Control Test Vehicle-1' (JCTV-1),
demonstrated the performance of an SM-3 missile
that has been modified with a Japanese-designed
advanced nose cone and the Aegis BMD Weapons
System. In previous Aegis BMD flight test
missions, the SM-3 missile maneuvered to eject the
nose cone before deploying the kinetic warhead to
intercept the target. With the modified
configuration, the nose cone opens like a
clamshell without any missile maneuvers." [1]
A boon for the Americans Japan's
determination to boost its anti-ballistic defenses
rapidly is welcome news to the US defense
industry. Last year, Japan's Defense Agency
approved the purchase by 2010 of 124 Patriot
surface-to-air missiles built by Lockheed-Martin.
Reuters reported on March 11 that Boeing
Co is weighing a possible Japanese role in its
multibillion-dollar program to use a 747 jumbo jet
platform for a weapon that can zap a ballistic
missile with a laser. Greg Hyslop, director of
Boeing Airborne laser program, said Tokyo is very
interested in the project designed to "shoot down
a missile moments after it lifts off a launch
pad". [2] Hyslop said a study is already under way
"to explore where Japanese industry might
participate". As a result, injections of Japanese
money will be a considerable help in financing US
cutting-edge defense products.
Obviously,
North Korea's missile program and Pyongyang's
frequent declarations of "turning Seoul and Tokyo
into a sea of fire" since the mid-1990s have
played their part in changing Japan's classical
post-1945 pacifist stance - still predominant in
the last decade. In fact, North Korea's Taepo-Dong
I and Taepo-Dong II missiles (whose range is
estimated at between 3,500 and 4,300 kilometers)
are considered a serious threat by the US and
Japan alike, as a 1998 report explained. [3]
However, it would be naive to concentrate
solely on the North Korean threat alone. The
crucial factor in a realistic understanding of the
US-Japan strategic partnership must also take in
the broader geostrategic theater and hence the
changing balance of power caused by China's rise
as a potential regional hegemon (Who's afraid of the New
Japan?, March 16).
In such a rapidly
changing strategic environment, Japan's new
security policy goals easily dovetail with
Washington's attempts to contain Beijing's growing
strengths and with Taiwan's anxieties as well as
with Washington's plans to rein in Pyongyang's
military buildup.
At the same time, the
newly enhanced Sino-Russian cooperation could pose
a challenge to the joint US-Japanese goal of
neutralizing North Korea, if Moscow and Beijing
opt discretely but substantially to support
Pyongyang's assertive defense goals.
More moves by Japan All the
signals indicate that Japan's willingness to
participate in cutting-edge defense programs can
be expected to remain strong in the next few
years.
Nevertheless, the present phase of
intense Tokyo-Washington joint planning to develop
anti-ballistic-missile technology may pave the way
for further Japanese moves. If Tokyo can manage
the tricky technology transfer, it may then
dramatically improve its own industrial-military
capabilities, and hence be able to launch future
all-Japanese programs.
Japan has recently
moved to reverse one of its sacrosanct policies:
the prohibition on the export of weapons, or "any
technology that could be defined as having a
military purpose", to catch up with the global
military industrial powers. So its motivations may
not lie solely in the perceived, immediate
security threats posed by North Korea and China.
