A two-horse race to succeed Koizumi
By Hisane Masaki
The election to choose a new Japanese leader, now four months away, is turning
into a real horse race. Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, 51, once thought to have
the inside track, may have a serious challenger in Yasuo Fukuda, 69, once
considered a long shot at best. Neither has formally announced.
The election is to fill the position of president of the Liberal Democratic
Party, who automatically becomes prime minister when the LDP controls the diet
(parliament). The presidency is decided by a vote of the 296 LDP members of the
House of Representatives, the 115 LDP members of the House of Councilors and
party members.
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who has served for more than
five years, has declined to run for another term as party president. He has
been one of Japan's longest-serving leaders and one of the most controversial,
primarily because of his regular visits in his official capacity to the
Yasukuni Shrine, a memorial in Tokyo to Japan's fallen soldiers.
Abe is still favored to succeed Koizumi, but numerous public opinion polls show
Fukuda's popularity is rising. The emergence of Fukuda is thought to reflect
uneasiness in Japan, especially among businessmen, over the damage done to
relations with China and South Korea because of the shrine visits.
None of the potential candidates has yet officially declared his candidacy, but
Abe has strongly indicated that he will do so as early as next month after the
summit of the Group of Eight (G8) major countries in Russia. Fukuda may wait a
little longer, watching to see if the current groundswell of support continues
to grow before making his candidacy official.
There are several other potential candidates, including such important figures
as Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki and Foreign Minister Taro Aso. They are
expected to declare their candidacy after the current session of the diet ends
in mid-June, in effect kicking off the LDP election. Economy Minister Kaoru
Yosano is also tipped to join the leadership race.
Asia policy
The LDP presidential race seldom revolves around foreign policy, but this year
will be an exception. Japan's Asia policy, especially toward China, has emerged
as a key issue. On other matters, both Abe and Fukuda are steadfast proponents
of keeping Japan's relations with its most important ally, the United States,
strong and friendly. Also, there seems to be no significant difference between
the two top potential candidates over economic policy.
Koizumi has visited the Yasukuni Shrine, where 14 Class A World War II
convicted war criminals, including former prime minister Hideki Tojo, are
enshrined along with some 2.4 million other war dead, on an annual basis since
taking office in 2001. China and South Korea have harshly condemned the visits
to the Shinto shrine by Koizumi as glorifying Japan's past militarism.
For nearly a year, top Chinese leaders have shunned Koizumi, refusing to meet
with him even during international conferences held in third countries. There
are other irritants in Japan's ties with China - and also with South Korea -
such as territorial and history-textbook disputes. But the shrine fracas is by
far the biggest obstacle to improved ties. Beijing has sent a thinly veiled
message repeatedly: without Koizumi, Sino-Japanese relations would be
flourishing.
Among the four leading potential candidates, Abe and Aso take a conservative
position against China and support the premier's Yasukuni visits. Fukuda and
Tanigaki are both regarded as pro-China politicians and have criticized the
visits. Abe has hinted that he may continue to visit the controversial shrine
after he becomes premier. He said recently, "We should never allow any foreign
countries to thrust their noses" into the Yasukuni issue.
For his part, Fukuda has stepped up his rhetoric against Koizumi's shrine
visits recently. He proposes establishing a state-run, non-religious memorial
to Japan's war dead as an alternative to Yasukuni Shrine. The LDP's junior
coalition partner, the New Komeito party, is also strongly pushing for the
alternative facility. Fukuda is popular among rank-and-file members of New
Komeito, although they have no say in the LDP election.
Fukuda visited Seoul along with former prime minister Yasuhiro Nakasone in
March and met with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, who had canceled his
planned Japan trip last year and has shown no sign of letting up in attacking
Koizumi over the Yasukuni issue. Fukuda's relations with Washington are good.
During a recent visit he got a red-carpet welcome, meeting with Vice President
Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice as well as US lawmakers.
This was an unusual amount of attention accorded somebody who is not, at
present, even a member of the cabinet (he lost his last position in a reshuffle
last year). This series of much-publicized talks, apparently reflected the US
administration's recognition of Fukuda as an increasingly strong candidate to
succeed Koizumi, and also helped to raise his profile in the run-up to the LDP
presidential election.
Abe has proposed strategic dialogue with India, Australia and other democracies
in Asia, as well as the United States. He appears to believe that putting such
a framework in place would cause China to change its approach to Japan.
Meanwhile, Fukuda has stressed the need for Japan to promote ties with Asian
neighbors with new initiatives built on the diplomatic principles of his
father, Takeo Fukuda, widely known as the Fukuda Doctrine and much appreciated
in Asia. Takeo Fukuda was prime minister from late 1976 to 1978.
In a speech in Manila in 1977, the senior Fukuda unveiled the doctrine, which
declared that Japan would never become a military power again and would build
relations of mutual trust through "heart-to-heart" communication, among other
things. The Fukuda Doctrine came at another time of strained relations with
China and Asia.
Three years previously, then-prime minister Kakuei Tanaka was greeted by
anti-Japanese riots in Thailand and Indonesia during his Southeast Asian tour.
Tanaka's trip triggered flare-ups of deep-running anti-Japanese sentiment in
these countries, which had been fostered by what was seen as Japan's arrogant
behavior as a rapidly rising economic power with growing influence in the
region.
On North Korea, too, Abe is known as a hardliner and Fukuda as a moderate. The
clash between Fukuda and Abe over North Korea policy was reported a few years
ago when Fukuda served as chief cabinet secretary and Abe as his deputy under
Koizumi. Abe's hard stance on North Korea, especially over the issue of
Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and early 1980s,
has earned him extremely high popularity. Meanwhile, Fukuda stood behind then
deputy foreign minister Hitoshi Tanaka even when the latter drew flak over what
critics claimed was his too-soft stance toward North Korea.
Another issue with potential Asian implications is reviving Japan's 1947
constitution, written by US occupiers. Abe's grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, while
prime minister, advocated a complete rewrite. Abe has stated that
constitutional amendments should top the agenda of a post-Koizumi cabinet. On
the other hand, Fukuda says the postwar pacifist constitution should not be
revised hastily. Regarding possible revisions of Article 9, which renounces the
use or threat of force as a means of settling international conflicts, Fukuda
maintains that it should not result in a situation where other nations are
concerned that Japan intends to become a military power again.
Generation change
Koizumi has boosted Abe's prospects by appointing him the government's chief
spokesman, assuring that he is in the public view. By contrast, the colorless
Fukuda seemed to have suffered a serious setback when he was left out of the
cabinet. Koizumi's decision not to bring Fukuda into his new team was widely
seen as a reflection of their delicate personal relationship and differences
over foreign policy, especially China.
As Fukuda's treatment shows, Koizumi selected his loyalists to the cabinet and
LDP leadership, but many of the old guard, who resisted Koizumi's reform
programs such as postal privatization, want to see the "principle of a swinging
pendulum" applied to the next leadership election. Fukuda has a reputation as a
stable, balanced and consensus-oriented politician, so he is the favorite
choice for them after the tumultuous years under Koizumi.
In addition, the relatively old Fukuda would be seen as safe and secure by the
elderly party lawmakers, who fear losing their influence through a rapid
generation change of party leaders. At 51, Abe is much younger than all three
other leading candidates. But support for Abe is strong among junior and
middle-ranking party lawmakers, including the large numbers of freshman diet
members swept into office in last year's LDP landslide.
The demise of factions
Abe and Fukuda both belong to the biggest LDP faction, chaired by former prime
minister Yoshiro Mori, which has more than 80 lawmakers. Tanigaki leads a
faction of his own, but it has only 15 members including himself. Aso belongs
to an even smaller faction. If either Abe or Fukuda is chosen as Koizumi's
successor, he will be the third successive prime minister from the Mori
faction. The LDP is still an assemblage of factions, and in the past, contests
for party leadership were power struggles among factions.
But Koizumi's first election as LDP president in 2001 and his re-election in
2003 demonstrated that party factions and their bosses have lost their clout
significantly in the leadership selection process as well. LDP factions in
general are in the jaws of death, though they still exist in name, and most
faction members are no longer that loyal to their bosses. In the next LDP
presidential election, party factions overall will not play a key role as they
did before Koizumi took office.
The schism between Koizumi and his longtime ally, Mori, apparently emerged in
the past month. In early May, Koizumi said "it would be no problem" if both Abe
and Fukuda entered the LDP presidential race. By saying this, Koizumi blocked
Mori's plan to select a single factional candidate. Mori had insisted that
doing so was essential for the sake of factional unity. Koizumi apparently
favors Abe as his successor, while Mori apparently favors Fukuda. Mori wants
the relatively young Abe to become a leader of Japan some day, but not this
year.
Mori went so far as to criticize Koizumi's Yasukuni pilgrimages harshly. Mori
said recently, "If improving the present relations [between Japan and China] is
important, then it would be better not to visit." He said the next prime
minister should think about the Yasukuni issue from a wider perspective.
"The prime minister has said [Yasukuni] is an issue of the heart, but it has
become a political issue," Mori said. "It has not been a plus for Japan's
national interests."
Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's e-mail address is
yiu45535@nifty.com
