TOKYO - Though Japan is being accused of
employing double standards over North Korea and
Iran, its cozy relationship with the US dictates
Tokyo likely will fall in line should the time
come to impose sanctions on Tehran over its
nuclear program.
Resource-poor Japan so
far has been reluctant over imposing sanctions
against Iran, a major oil supplier. Yet Tokyo is
threatening economic sanctions against North Korea
if the Stalinist state goes ahead with its
threatened test-firing of a Taepodong 2 missile.
Along with its ally the United States,
Japan has stepped up diplomatic efforts to rally
international pressure on Pyongyang to halt
preparations for a test and the two appear ready
to impose
sanctions on North
Korea whether or not there is a United Nations
Security Council resolution.
Regardless of
how the latest North Korean missile crisis plays
out, it will certainly prompt Japan to accelerate
work on implementing recently beefed-up security
arrangements with the US and also improve
cooperation on a joint missile defense system.
Last Friday, Japan and the US signed an
agreement formally to begin the joint development
of an advanced SM3 (Standard Missile 3), which is
an interceptor weapon. Also, the Bush
administration has reportedly notified Tokyo
recently that it will deploy PAC3 missiles
(surface-to-air Patriot Advanced Capability 3) at
a US base in Okinawa prefecture by year's end. The
deployment will be the first time the
surface-to-air missiles have been installed to
defend US forces in Japan from possible North
Korean missile attacks.
On Thursday, a US
Navy ship intercepted a medium-range missile
warhead above the Earth's atmosphere off Hawaii in
the latest test of the US missile defense (MD)
program. The US said the test had been scheduled
for months and was not prompted by indications
that North Korea was planning to test launch a
long-range missile. The Kirishima practiced
tracking the target, marking the first time that a
Japanese Aegis destroyer had participated in a US
interception test.
In December, the
Koizumi government formally committed to the joint
development of a new sea-based interceptor missile
as a main pillar of the MD system. The joint
development cost of the advanced SM3 is estimated
at a maximum of US$2.7 billion, with Japan
shouldering up to $1.2 billion and the US paying
the rest. The next-generation interceptor missile
will be deployed on Aegis-equipped destroyers.
Separately from the joint development of
the new SM3, Japan decided in late 2003 to
introduce a MD system using existing interceptor
missiles in 2007. Well over 100 PAC3
surface-to-air missiles will be procured by the
end of fiscal 2010.
Meanwhile, US critics
of Japan's Iran policy have argued that Iran's
nuclear program could destabilize the entire
Middle East region - from which Japan imports
about 90% of its oil - and, as a result, severely
damage Japan's energy security. They also have
accused Tokyo of inconsistency on the issue of
nuclear proliferation by getting tough with
Pyongyang while doing business with Tehran as
usual.
US Treasury Secretary John Snow
asked his Japanese counterpart Sadakazu Tanigaki
this month to consider joining Washington's plan
to impose financial sanctions on Iran, such as by
requesting that private financial institutions
refrain from conducting transactions with the
country. Tanigaki replied that though Japan was
aware of US concerns about Iran's nuclear
development program, he believed Japan and the US
needed to consider the plan further while talking
with European countries.
Japan imports
nearly 15% of its oil from Iran. Despite US
pressure, Japan has refused to give up its massive
Azadegan oil project in Iran. Still, Japan will
likely lean toward agreeing to a US request for
sanctions against Iran unless the Persian Gulf
nation abandons its nuclear program.
But
it is the North Korean situation that has Japan's
immediate attention. Japan has been on high alert
amid signs North Korea is preparing to test-fire a
long-range ballistic missile believed capable of
reaching the US and which could accidentally fall
on Japanese territory.
This isn't the first time Japan has been twitchy
over a North Korean missile launch. Pyongyang
stunned Tokyo in August 1998 by test-firing a
Taepodong 1 ballistic missile with a range of
2,000 kilometers. It flew over Japan and fell into
the Pacific Ocean. The Taepodong 2 ballistic
missile has a range of up to 6,000km, meaning it
could reach Alaska.
North Korea has also
deployed an estimated 200 shorter-range Rodong
missiles capable of striking almost all Japan's
territory. It is anybody's guess outside of North
Korea whether its warheads are advanced enough to
deliver weapons of mass destruction.
Since
the current North Korean missile crisis erupted
after US satellites started noticing preparations
at the North's missile launch site at Musudan-ri,
Japanese leaders have issued strongly worded
warnings to Pyongyang. Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi, who has made two visits to
Pyongyang for talks with North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il since taking office in 2001 despite the
absence of diplomatic ties, has said Tokyo will
take "stern measures" against any missile launch.
News reports suggest the Taepodong 2 has
already been fueled. The North Korean missile
threat comes amid a protracted impasse in the
six-way talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons
program, which also involve the US, China, Russia,
Japan and South Korea. It is widely seen as yet
another case of Pyongyang's typical brinkmanship
diplomacy aimed at extracting concessions from its
arch enemy, the US.
Pyongyang is widely
believed to be using the missile threat to break
the deadlock in the talks, which have been stalled
since November.
Japan and the US have said
a Taepodong 2 launch would violate Pyongyang's
self-imposed 1999 moratorium on ballistic missile
tests, its 2002 agreement with Japan and also its
implicit agreement in the six-party nuclear talks
last autumn. Pyongyang has claimed its moratorium
on ballistic missile tests no longer applies as it
is no longer in direct talks with Washington.
Japanese officials have said if North Korea
test-fires the Taepodong 2 missile in defiance
of growing international pressure, Tokyo will
immediately call for a meeting of the Security Council.
Japan and the US reportedly have already begun
discussions on a resolution harshly condemning
the missile launch. Foreign Minister Taro
Aso said recently it would be "inevitable" for
the Security Council to consider imposing sanctions on
Pyongyang if it goes ahead with the missile
launch.
But it remains to be seen how much support Japan
and the US would be able to garner for their
stance on North Korea. When Pyongyang test-launched a
Taepodong 1 missile in 1998, the Security Council
was only able to issue a statement to the media
- not a binding resolution or even a chair's statement
- expressing concerns over the incident, because
China objected to discussing the matter at the
council. China is one of the five veto-wielding permanent
members of the council. The other four are
the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom and France.
However, this time China may agree to take up
the North Korean missile issue at the Security Council
because it must be well aware of the seriousness
of the situation, especially as the chair of the
six-party nuclear talks on North Korea's nuclear
program.
But Beijing's support for
sanctions appears very unlikely. Among the
participant countries in the six-way nuclear
talks, China, Russia and South Korea have
advocated a softer approach to Pyongyang, while
the US and Japan have taken a harder line. On the
missile issue also China and Russia appear
unlikely to agree to economic sanctions against
Pyongyang. Because of this prospect, Japan and the
US are poised to cooperate in slapping economic
sanctions on their own, even without a UN
sanctions resolution.
Japan has passed
necessary bills to impose sanctions on its own. In
2004, Japan revised the Foreign Exchange and
Foreign Trade Law to allow the government to halt
trade and block cash remittances to North Korea -
or any other country - based on its own judgment,
even without a UN resolution calling for such
sanctions.
Japan also enacted a new law
that year that authorizes the government to ban
docking at Japanese ports of North Korean ships or
ships that have visited North Korea. Among the
likely targets is the Mangyongbyon-92 ferry, the
main direct link between the two countries.
Pyongyang has often warned that economic
sanctions would be tantamount to a "declaration of
war". North Korea would suffer if Japan actually
imposed sanctions. But the impact of the Japanese
punishment would be limited unless other nations,
especially China and South Korea, join the
sanctions.
Until 2002 Japan was North
Korea's second-largest trading partner after
China, facilitated in part by the large
ethnic-Korean community in Japan. However, the
two-way trade has shrunk considerably in recent
years, reflecting increasingly tense ties. Japan
has fallen behind China, South Korea and Thailand.
Meanwhile, Koizumi will visit
the US this week. The North Korean missile
issue, along with Iran and Iraq, will top the agenda
in talks this Friday with President George W Bush. These issues
are also expected to be among top agenda items at
the Group of Eight major countries in St
Petersburg in mid-July.
Hisane
Masaki is a
Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's
e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com.
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