Japan firmly on a conservative
path By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo
Abe, now widely believed to be a shoo-in to
succeed Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi
in September, has made it clear, if ever there was
any doubt, that he will pursue an
ultra-conservative, nationalistic and pro-US
political and foreign-policy agenda.
Abe's
policy goals as the new prime minister will
include, among other things, giving Japan a
greater military role abroad through
such
means as promulgating a new constitution to
replace the post-World War II pacifist
constitution, strengthening a security alliance
with the United States, and forging a thinly
veiled alliance of Asia-Pacific democracies to
counter China.
These goals, coupled with
Abe's nationalist views on history, hawkish stance
on such countries as China and firm support for
the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo seen as glorifying
Japan's militaristic past, will stoke concerns
among Asian neighbors, especially China and South
Korea. This prospect augurs ill for Tokyo's
relations with Beijing and Seoul, which remain
strained by territorial rows, disputes over
natural resources, and differences over World War
II history.
Koizumi steps down in
September when his current three-year term as
president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party -
and hence as premier - expires. The LDP
presidential election is slated for September 20.
In a long-awaited move, Koizumi's protege, Abe, is
formally to throw his hat into the ring in the LDP
presidential race and unveil his campaign
manifesto on Friday. Abe has important rivals, but
his election is considered assured.
One of
Abe's first moves as premier will be to push ahead
with promulgation of a new constitution to replace
the one written during the postwar US occupation.
''It has been 61 years since the end of World War
II. We must, with our own hands, create a new
constitution. The time has come to exercise
leadership in the making of a new constitution,''
he said recently.
Japan's current charter
was drafted by American lawyers in 1947 after the
Japanese diet (parliament) failed to produce one
that satisfied General Douglas MacArthur. The new
document, containing the famous war-renouncing
Article 9, was then submitted to the diet, which
dutifully ratified it.
The mere fact that
the charter was written by foreigners has always
rankled conservatives in Japan, who wish to see it
replaced with a purely Japanese one. Establishing
a home-grown constitution has been part of the
ruling LDP's manifesto since it was founded in
1955 through the merger of two conservative
parties.
Indeed, it could be argued that
constitutional reform is in Abe's blood. His
grandfather on his mother's side, the late prime
minister Nobusuke Kishi, lobbied for revision when
he was in office in the 1950s. He was also
instrumental in ramming the current US-Japan
security treaty through the diet, an act that set
off riots that forced US president Dwight
Eisenhower to cancel a planned visit to Japan.
On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of
its founding last November, the LDP unveiled its
draft of a new constitution. It would clear the
way for Japan having a greater role in
international security by rewriting - though not
necessarily dropping entirely - the famous Article
9, which reads:
Aspiring to an international peace
based on justice and order, the Japanese people
forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the
nation and the threat or use of force as a means
of settling international disputes. In order to
accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph,
land sea and air forces, as well as other war
potential, will never be maintained. The right
of belligerency will not be
recognized.
The LDP draft calls for,
among other things, adding a clause that
explicitly authorizes the use of force for defense
against aggression directed at Japan and
authorizes more active participation in
international peace-cooperation activities.
Although the words as written clearly
prohibit any kind of Japanese military force, the
document has long been interpreted to permit the
existence of the euphemistically named
"Self-Defense Forces". That's how Japan has an
army of about 240,000 troops and sustains one of
the world's biggest defense expenditures.
Successive governments have explained away the
contradiction by claiming that the SDF is not a
military.
The initial LDP draft set a
nationalistic tone, with its preamble containing
references to the "love of the nation" as well as
Japan's tradition, history and culture. But that
tone was significantly watered down at the last
minute by Koizumi, who apparently feared it would
make the LDP draft less palatable to many Japanese
by including too much nationalistic wording.
Under Article 96, any amendments must be
proposed with support of a two-thirds or more of
both houses of the diet and then be approved in a
national referendum with a simple majority vote.
Legislation setting procedures for such a
referendum are still pending in the diet. Although
the LDP-New Komeito coalition commands more than a
two-thirds majority in the 480-seat House of
Representatives after a landslide victory in the
general election nearly a year ago, it is still
far short of a two-thirds majority in the less
powerful House of Councilors.
For many
years the main opposition, the Japan Socialist
Party (JSP), defined itself primarily as the
defender of the constitution and its "no war"
clause. It usually won enough seats to prevent
revisionists from securing the necessary
super-majority to tamper with the document. That's
one reason the constitution has never been
amended, not even for minor housekeeping changes.
But the Socialists broke up in the political
reforms of the early 1990, and successor parties
have abandoned the JSP's uncompromisingly pacifist
stance in the interests of electability.
For many years, even the slightest sign of
nationalism in Japan was widely denounced at home
as well as abroad as signaling a resurgence of
militarism. But the situation has changed
dramatically in recent years. Nationalism is on
the rise. Many Japanese also feel less secure in
the increasingly volatile security environment
surrounding their country.
There is
growing alarm over potential threats posed by
North Korea and China. At the same time Japan is
under increasing pressure from the US to shoulder
more of the burden of its foreign and security
policy, regionally and globally. Acquiring the
kind of "self-imposed" new constitution that was
drafted by the LDP is not merely a matter of
national pride, but something Japanese leaders
firmly believe the nation must do to cope with
these new challenges.
Abe's firm resolve
to seek constitutional revisions may be hailed by
the US as clear evidence that Tokyo is going in
the right direction to become a more reliable and
responsible security partner. But it will very
likely alarm many of the country's immediate Asian
neighbors who fear that Japan's military genie
might finally be beginning to escape its bottle.
Abe is also determined as premier to
clarify Japan's right to engage in collective
self-defense, that is, to form alliances. (The
current security arrangement between the US and
Japan is not, strictly speaking, an "alliance". It
obligates the United States to defend Japan; it
does not obligate Japan to do anything to help
defend the US.)
The Cabinet Legislation
Bureau, the constitutional watchdog within the
government, has long held a firm view that Japan
should have the right to collective self-defense
but is not allowed to exercise it under the
current constitution. This constitutional
interpretation has put severe restrictions on the
SDF's activities abroad, often frustrating the
United States. Even logistical support for US
forces outside of Japanese territory is deemed by
many to be unconstitutional.
"When foreign
troops who work in joint operations [with SDF
personnel] come under attack, do we have to remain
silent and just stand by and watch? We need to
think about it seriously in the future," Abe said
recently.
Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the
small opposition Social Democratic Party, was
quick to criticize Abe's declared intention to
review the government's interpretation regarding
the right to collective self-defense. "It is a
grave problem. Probably no Japanese prime minister
has ever stated definitely that Japan can exercise
such a right under the current constitution. Even
Prime Minister Koizumi is 1 million times better
than Mr Abe," she grumbled.
Beginning in
the 1990s Japan has increasingly been called on
either to participate in international
peacekeeping missions, such as in Cambodia, to
cooperate in "global war on terror" operations,
such as in Iraq, or to provide more explicit
backup and logistics help to US forces in the
event of a war near Japan.
Each and every
endeavor has required a tortured stretching of the
boundaries of the constitution. Most LDP lawmakers
now believe the nation should be allowed to
exercise the right to collective self-defense so
that it can implement its defense and security
cooperation with the US more smoothly and
effectively.
Abe will inherit and
presumably build on Koizumi's staunchly pro-US
foreign policy. Japan and the United States are
stepping up efforts to integrate operations of the
SDF and US forces in Japan. They have also agreed
on closer missile-defense cooperation and
deployment of a US nuclear-powered aircraft
carrier at a US naval base in Japan.
Koizumi's government enacted two new laws
to enable the SDF to assist US-led military
operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. The two laws -
the 2001 Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law and
the 2003 Law Concerning the Special Measures on
Humanitarian and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq
- are effective only for a limited period.
The 2001 Anti-Terrorism Special Measures
Law, which was enacted with a two-year life span,
has so far been extended twice. The law is
expected to be extended for another year before it
expires on November 1. Under it, SDF naval
logistics vessels have been dispatched to the
Indian Ocean to help supply US-led coalition naval
forces' operations in Afghanistan.
The
2003 Law Concerning the Special Measures on
Humanitarian and Reconstruction Assistance in Iraq
has a four-year life span. Although Ground
Self-Defense Forces deployed in the southern Iraqi
city of Samawah under that law returned to Japan
in late July, SDF aircraft based in Kuwait are
still engaged in transporting multinational
forces' personnel and materials to Iraq.
Instead of establishing or extending
temporary laws on a case-by-case basis, as it has
done so far, the Koizumi government has been
considering a comprehensive permanent law to
enable the SDF to participate more smoothly in
international peace-cooperation activities,
including assistance in the restoration of a
war-devastated country and dispute settlement by
multinational forces.
Abe has called for
the establishment of a permanent law to enable
overseas deployment of SDF troops. "By
establishing such legislation, we could make a
rapid response [to an emergency]. The LDP is
having discussions on the issue, and the
government needs to work toward establishing the
legislation," he said recently.
Abe has
been purposefully vague about whether he will
follow Koizumi's practice of paying respects at
the Yasukuni Shrine, actions that have elicited a
storm of protests from China and South Korea.
Since last year, Beijing and Seoul have refused
summit talks with Koizumi. Japanese public opinion
has been split almost down the middle.
There is no question about Abe's personal
proclivities. After all, his grandfather came
close to being the 15th "Class A" war criminal
convicted after the war and later enshrined at
Yasukuni. (Kishi had served in General Hideki
Tojo's war cabinet, but he was never tried.) Abe
makes no secret he considers the Tokyo Trials as
mere victor's justice. He has visited the shrine
on numerous occasions. But he may decide that the
visits as premier put too much strain on Japan's
relations with its neighbors.
In his
recent book Toward a Beautiful Country,Abe
outlined four universal values as a blueprint for
his administration - liberty, democracy, human
rights, and rule of law. He also advocates a
stronger alliance with the US, Australia and
India, based on shared democratic values and with
the aim of spreading those values throughout Asia.
In his campaign manifesto, Abe will advocate
closer partnership with India. This will certainly
alarm Beijing.
Hisane Masaki is
a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and scholar
on international politics and economy. Masaki's
e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com.
(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
.)
