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5 Challenges ahead for
premier By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - As the Year of the Boar begins,
the focus of political attention in Japan is
shifting to whether new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
will be able to consolidate his grip on power in
an election year and begin to charge ahead to
achieve his longer-term, arduous agenda.
Abe, who took office in late September,
will face his first major electoral challenge in
summer, when a triennial election for the House of
Councilors, the upper house of the Diet, Japan's
bicameral parliament, will be
held. Whether he can lead his ruling coalition to
a victory in the poll - a mission far from a
cakewalk, if not impossible - may determine his
political fortunes.
Topping his
longer-term agenda are a revision of the
post-World War II pacifist constitution and a hike
in the broadly levied consumption tax, both of
which are highly divisive and potentially
explosive issues for the prime minister.
Abe, 52, is the youngest postwar Japanese
premier and the first one born after the war. His
rise to the top government post marked a turning
point for Japanese politics.
Naming his
new administration the "nation-building cabinet",
Abe has said he wants Japan to revive family
values, be proud of its identity, and display
leadership in international affairs. He has
advocated a more assertive foreign policy and
called for a "departure from the postwar regime"
by revising the pacifist constitution, among other
things. The constitutional revision would allow
the country to assume a higher profile militarily
role on the global stage.
His young, fresh
image and telegenic appearance swept Abe to power
in late September, replacing his flamboyant
predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. Unlike Koizumi,
whose combative style earned him the nicknames
"Lion Heart" and "Maverick" and helped him
maintain a high level of popularity, Abe never
roars, putting on a stiff upper lip. But Abe's
soft-spokenness largely masks, at least in the
eyes of many Japanese, the fact that he is a
diehard ultra-conservative, nationalist and hawk
in his own right.
There is growing
discontent among many conservatives that Abe has
changed his coat since taking office. Abe is
widely known for his nationalist views on history
and hawkish stance toward countries such as China.
But in a concerted attempt to repair damaged
relations with China and South Korea, Abe has
either toned down or even reversed his previous
rhetoric, at least in public. Immediately after
being elected Japan's leader, Abe made an unusual,
whirlwind fence-mending tour of Beijing and Seoul.
Suspicions about his true political nature
seem to be emerging on both sides of the political
spectrum. His conservative supporters fear that he
might further deviate from the path they initially
expected him to tread as premier, and critics of
the hawkish and nationalistic views he expressed
in the past on history worrying that he might
revert to type before long.
As the Year of
the Dog draws to a close, Japan remains dogged by
a host of foreign-policy challenges carried over
from the previous year. Among those challenges
are: resolving the crisis over neighboring North
Korea's nuclear program, a grave security concern
for Japan; contributing to peace and
reconstruction in Iraq; and getting soured
relations with China and South Korea, a negative
legacy of Abe's predecessor, Koizumi, back on
track.
Meanwhile, the Japanese economy is
booming, renewing the record postwar growth spell.
Many analysts optimistically expect the boom to
continue, at least throughout the new year. The
Bank of Japan (BOJ) ended its unusual
zero-interest policy of nearly six years in July,
raising rates to 0.25% from effectively zero, as
the economy gained strength. The focus of
immediate attention is when the central bank will
make the next rate hike, which may come early in
the new year.
To be sure, the prospect of
the economic boom being sustained, at least
throughout 2007, augurs well for Abe and his
ruling coalition in the election year as economic
conditions are a key factor that influences
voters. But the devil is in the details.
Personal consumption remains weak as most
Japanese workers have not seen their wages rise
during the current boom. In addition, although
former prime minister Koizumi is widely credited
with beating deflation and turning around the
ailing economy, critics say his laissez-faire,
market-oriented structural-reform program has left
the negative legacy of a widening gap in society,
especially between rich and poor. Abe has vowed to
address the disparity issue, but he has yet to
produce tangible results.
There is a
Japanese term chototsumoshin, meaning
"dashing forward recklessly", that uses the
kanji characters for a boar charging ahead.
Without a crystal ball, it is impossible to
predict precisely how the myriad political,
diplomatic and economic challenges facing the Abe
government will play out in the new year. But at
least one thing seems clear: the prime minister
will not be able to dash forward to achieve
everything on his long-term agenda, especially a
constitutional revision, if he fails to ride out
what is seen by some as a life-or-death election
for him in summer.
Outlook for Japanese
politics For Prime Minister Abe, the Upper
House election in summer could be a moment of
truth, as it is his first full-scale national poll
- and referendum on his policies - since he took
office in late September.
The biggest
opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ), hopes to deprive Abe's Liberal Democratic
Party-led
