Page 3 of 5 Challenges ahead for
premier By Hisane Masaki
be in a stronger position to push through
his most potentially explosive agendas - a
constitutional revision and a hike in the
broad-based consumption tax.
After the
Upper House poll, there may be no national
election until late 2009. The current Lower House
members were elected in September 2005 for a
four-year term. Unless the House of
Representatives is dissolved early for a general
election, its
members will not face
re-election until September 2009. Meanwhile, after
the Upper House election in summer, no election
for that chamber will be held until 2010.
At present, the LDP-New Komeito coalition
has a majority of 136 seats in the 242-seat House
of Councilors, with 112 held by the LDP and 24 by
New Komeito. The biggest opposition DPJ has 80
seats, and the rest are held by smaller parties
and independents.
It appears almost
certain that the LDP-led coalition will lose some
seats in the Upper House election. Therefore, the
focus of attention will be whether the coalition
will be able to retain its majority in that Diet
chamber.
Up for grabs in the next election
are half of the chamber's 242 members elected in
the summer of 2001, soon after Koizumi took the
helm of the LDP and government. In that election,
the LDP won big amid the "Koizumi fever" among
Japanese voters. The then-tripartite coalition of
the LDP, New Komeito and the now-defunct
Conservative Party boosted its strength in the
Upper House to 138 seats. The LDP alone won 64
seats, more than half of the seats up for
re-election.
In the last Upper House
election in the summer of 2004, however, the
LDP-New Komeito coalition failed to win a majority
of the 121 seats contested, gaining 60 seats. What
was more shocking for the LDP - and for the then
LDP secretary general, Abe, in particular - in
that poll was that the party won only 49 seats,
significantly down from 64 in the 2001 election
and even fewer than the 50 seats the DPJ won.
Abe is widely believed to be determined to
begin addressing the issue of constitutional
amendments - probably his biggest political agenda
- in earnest after the Upper House election.
In the autumn of 2005, the LDP adopted its
draft of a new constitution to replace the current
war-renouncing, pacifist constitution, written by
the US occupation forces soon after Japan's 1945
defeat in World War II. Establishing a
"self-imposed constitution" has been the LDP's
credo since its 1955 founding. But this was the
first time the LDP had actually proposed a new
constitution in writing.
The LDP draft
calls for rewriting Article 9 to acknowledge
clearly the existence of a "military for
self-defense". It also calls for more active
participation in international peacekeeping
activities. The current constitution is widely
interpreted as forbidding the possession of a
military. In reality, Japan has about 240,000 SDF
troops and one of the world's biggest defense
expenditures. Successive governments have
explained away the contradiction by claiming that
the SDF is not a military but a kind of police
force.
Abe, a staunch advocate of
constitutional amendments, has said he will seek
to have amendments realized within five years. It
remains to be seen, however, whether the supreme
law can be revised while he is in office. Under
Article 96, any amendments must be proposed with
support of two-thirds or more of both houses of
the Diet and then be approved in a national
referendum with a simple majority vote.
Legislation setting procedures for such a
referendum is still pending in the Diet. It was
carried over to the next ordinary Diet session, to
convene in January for a 150-day run. The LDP-New
Komeito coalition is far short of a two-thirds
majority in the Upper House. In addition, New
Komeito remains reluctant about rewriting Article
9.
Abe faces the need to raise the
consumption tax to finance rising social-security
costs and stem an even further rise in government
debts. But he has decided to delay a sweeping
overhaul of the tax system, including a possible
hike in the currently 5% consumption-tax rate,
until after the Upper House election.
Abe
has set a goal of securing high growth rates.
"Without economic growth, we will be unable to
take effective measures to reverse the trend of
fewer children and reconstruct government
finances," Abe said. He said his government will
aim to achieve high growth through tax breaks
aimed at encouraging technological innovation in
the private sectors, especially information
technology, and thereby boosting productivity, a
key condition for growth amid the rapidly graying
- and even shrinking - population resulting from
low birth rates.
Rehabilitating the
creaking social-security system, including
pension, medical insurance and nursing-care
insurance for the elderly, has emerged as a
pressing task for the government, amid the rapid
aging of society and continued decline in birth
rates. Government finances remain in dire straits.
Japan's fiscal condition is the worst among major
industrialized economies, with the deficits held
by the central and local governments totaling a
staggering 1 quadrillion yen ($9 trillion). This
figure translates into about 8.3 million yen (more
than $70,000) per person in a nation of about 127
million people.
The consumption tax was
introduced in 1989, but only a few months later,
then prime minister Noboru Takeshita was forced to
resign. The tax rate was raised from the original
3% to the current 5% in 1997, after which consumer
spending slumped and the country slipped back into
recession. The LDP suffered a debilitating loss in
the Upper House election held the following year,
forcing then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto from
office.
Outlook for Japanese
diplomacy As the Year of the Dog draws to a
close, Japan remains dogged by a host of
foreign-policy challenges carried over from the
old year.
Among those challenges, topping
the agenda are resolving the crisis over North
Korea's nuclear program, contributions to peace
