Page 2 of 3 The political stakes are
rising in Japan By Hisane Masaki
24 by New Komeito. The biggest opposition DPJ has 80 seats and the remaining
seats are held by smaller parties and independents. An Upper House lawmaker's
term is six years.
At the moment, the election math seems to favor the opposition. The 121 seats
up for re-election this year were won in the summer of 2001, shortly after
Koizumi took the helm of the LDP, and the candidates benefited from "Koizumi
fever" among voters. In that
election, the LDP won 64 seats, more than half of the seats at stake.
In the last Upper House election in the summer of 2004, however, the LDP-New
Komeito coalition failed to win a majority of the seats contested, together
gaining 60 seats. What was more shocking for the LDP - and for the then LDP
secretary general, Abe, in particular - the LDP won only 49 seats,
significantly down from 2001 election and even fewer than the 50 seats the DPJ
won.
Declining faith in LDP - and DPJ
The Abe administration got off to a good start last autumn. In the last
extraordinary Diet session, which elected him as Japan's new leader, key bills
strongly pushed by Abe's ruling coalition were enacted.
The 1947 Fundamental Law of Education was revised for the first time to instill
patriotism among students at school. The Defense Agency was upgraded to a full
ministry, more than five decades after its inception, and the "primary duties"
of the Self-Defense Forces, which had been limited to national defense and
disaster relief at home, were expanded to include overseas peacekeeping
operations.
But public approval ratings for the Abe cabinet, which registered high levels
of about 70% immediately after it was inaugurated, have been on a steady
decline, casting a pall over his and his coalition's fortunes ahead of the
election. According to an opinion poll by the Asahi Shimbun, a leading national
daily, published on Wednesday, only 39% of respondents supported the Abe
cabinet, the first time the figure has fallen below 40%.
The precipitous decline in public support can be largely attributed to such
problems as welcoming back to the party the members who bucked Koizumi on
postal reform and the resignation of a cabinet minister, among other issues.
Late last month Genichiro Santa resigned from his post as state minister for
administrative reform after the discovery of inaccurate accounting records in
his political-funds report.
Since the beginning of the year, two cabinet ministers - Education, Science and
Technology Minister Brunei Buskin and Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Minister Toshiba Matsuda - have come under suspicion for fiddling the accounts
in their political-fund reports. The submission of these reports is mandatory
for politicians and political organizations. It is felt that Abe did not
reproach his ministers and in effect kept his head buried in the sand.
Abe's predecessor Koizumi roared into office in April 2001 with a vow to
"destroy the old LDP". His combative style in the fight against intra-party
opponents of his reform drive - whom he labeled "old-guard conservatives" or
"resistance forces" - earned him unusually strong support among Japanese,
including the rapidly growing number of independent voters who claim no party
allegiance. This in turn provided him with much-needed ammunition to push
through reform programs.
During his more than five years in office, Koizumi also made many surprise
decisions, which also helped boost his public support. Among those surprises
were the dissolution of the Lower House for a general election as a political
gamble aimed at pushing through postal reforms and two trips to Pyongyang for
talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.
Some think that the somewhat unexciting Abe needs an injection of Koizumi-like
pizzazz. Reform-minded writer Naoki Inose reportedly advised Abe last week to
"project his image [as a leader who is] fighting it out". Inose was closely
involved in Koizumi's reform of road and highway public corporations aimed at
doing away with wasteful public-works projects - usually vote winners for the
LDP in rural areas.
But Abe apparently does not have the slightest intention of buying Inose's
proposal. He has repeatedly said that he will adopt "standard tactics" of
implementing policies and producing results. At the recent annual convention of
the LDP, Abe said of the upcoming local and national elections, "I will fight
in a straightforward manner. If we explain our achievements to the people in a
way that they can easily understand, I believe we will definitely win."
But the DPJ is not immune to criticism over financial propriety. Giichi
Tsunoda, vice president of the Upper House hailing from the DPJ, is suspected
of having failed to declare some political funds donated to his supporters
group. Even DPJ president Ichiro Ozawa reported about 415 million yen (more
than US$3.4 million) in office expenses for his political-funds report. Ozawa
has clumsily tried to justify the 415 million yen, saying it was used to
construct housing for his secretaries, thus further complicating the situation.
There is concern within the DPJ that if the party lets up in its attacks on the
ruling coalition over the financial scandals, voters
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