Page 1 of 2 Happy birthday to Kyoto, but ...
By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations treaty on climate change went
into effect on February 16, 2005, after all the requirements were fulfilled
with Russia’s ratification. About 170 countries, representing virtually the
entire world, have joined, including China. Notable exceptions are the United
States and Australia.
Japan's ancient capital Kyoto, where the protocol was negotiated, is not about
to let the second anniversary pass by without some
kind of celebration. The city's Miyako Ecology Center recently launched a
series of events dubbed "The Second Happy Birthday" with workshops, concerts
and exhibitions. It will run through the end of February.
But the rest of Japan doesn't seem to be in a festive mood as the world's
second-largest economy feels the heat to live up to the goals of the treaty
amid increasingly gloomy prospects of meeting its international obligation to
reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, that is, those
that accumulate in the atmosphere and trap the sun's heat, leading to an
overall warming of the planet.
Under the terms of the Kyoto Protocol, industrialized countries must reduce
their emissions of several greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% from 1990
levels during 2008-12. The protocol sets separate gas-reduction targets for
individual industrialized countries. In Japan's case it must reduce emissions
by 6%, to 1.185 billion tons carbon dioxide equivalent from 1.261 billion tons.
Despite its firm commitment to the Kyoto Protocol, however, Japan's emissions
have actually risen from the 1990 levels. While those from the industrial
sector - which account for about 40% of the nation's total - may have declined
slightly from the 1990 levels, those from household and transport sectors have
risen strongly during the same period. Thus, in order to be in compliance Japan
must now slash emissions by 14.1%.
Last Friday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the most
authoritative group of climate scientists around the world, released a new
report warning that global warming was "very likely" to have a human cause. The
IPCC has projected a probable increase in average temperatures of 1.8-4 degrees
Celsius by the end of the century, while sea levels are most likely to rise by
28-43 centimeters.
The latest report was the first of its kind to link abnormal weather to the
increasing temperature of the planet. It said extreme weather such as
torrential rain, heat waves, unusually mild winters and massive typhoons are
not unrelated to global warming, adding that abnormal weather could strike
parts of the world more often than in the past. Japan has experienced most of
these weather anomalies in recent years, including devastating typhoons,
concentrated heavy rainfalls, extremely heavy snowfalls and unseasonably warm
weather.
According to another recent study, Japan's coastal areas, particularly bays
open to the south, may be hit by bigger storm surges and higher waves in the
future during typhoons made stronger because of global warming. The bigger
typhoons will raise sea levels because of lower atmospheric pressure. The study
was compiled by a group of experts at the Port and Airport Research Institute,
an affiliate of the Japanese Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry. The
maximum tidal levels will go up by about 3 meters from the current levels at
Osaka and Hiroshima bays at the end of the 21st century, the study says.
Resource-poor Japan has made strenuous energy-saving efforts and technological
innovations since the two oil crises of the 1970s. As part of its
energy-conservation efforts, Japan has adopted a "top-runner system", under
which the most energy-efficient products become the benchmark for their
industries. Under the Energy Conservation Law revised in 1998, the top-runner
system was applied to 21 items, including automobiles and refrigerators, and
has proved successful.
The country is now the most energy-efficient in the industrialized world and
faces great difficulties making further dents in greenhouse-gas emissions
through domestic measures alone, such as further energy-saving efforts and
carbon "sink" plantation projects that soak up carbon dioxide. According to one
estimate, it costs Japan on average about US$110 to eliminate a ton of carbon
dioxide, compared with about $80 for Europe and $50 for the United States.
Japan sees nuclear energy as crucial if it is to slash greenhouse gases, since
nuclear power plants generate no carbon dioxide. But many of the nation's 55
nuclear reactors are 20-30 years old and won't be replaced by new ones until
about 2030. Increasing their share of electricity to between 30% and 40% or
more in 2030 from the current 30%, the goal set by the government last May,
will place great strain on the older reactors.
It also remains to be seen whether Japanese power companies, facing tougher
competition in the domestic market as a result of increased deregulation, as
well as damaged public confidence in nuclear-plant safety in the wake of a
spate of accidents and other problems - and their cover-ups - will be able to
build new plants smoothly to replace the aging ones in the future.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has recently drawn up a new
target obliging electric-power companies to use renewable energy sources, such
as wind and solar power, to generate electricity worth 1.63%, or 16 billion
kilowatt-hours, of their projected electricity sales in 2014. But the new
target marks only a marginal rise from the fiscal 2010 target of 1.35%, or 12.2
billion kilowatt-hours, set in 2003. Experts say that such a small increase
will have only a limited impact on curbing global warming and that the new
target is far less ambitious than the level of use of renewable energy sources
in Europe.
Although the Environment Ministry has tenaciously pushed for the introduction
of an environment tax on fossil fuels - which would be equivalent to 1.5 yen
(about 1.25 US cents) per liter in the case of gasoline - to help reduce
greenhouse-gas emissions, METI and domestic industries have opposed the idea,
claiming that any such extra tax burden would erode corporate Japan's
international competitiveness.
New efforts
Since the Kyoto Protocol became effective, the Japanese Environment Ministry
has spearheaded two nationwide campaigns in a desperate bid to reduce
carbon-dioxide emissions - the "Warm Biz" campaign of keeping office
temperatures at about 20 degrees Celsius in winter and the "Cool Biz" campaign
of encouraging office workers to dress lightly without a tie or jacket during
their work hours in summer.
Among other recent developments, the Land, Infrastructure and Transportation
Ministry and METI have agreed to introduce new
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