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3 Japan: When a spy
satellite isn't a spy
satellite By Hisane Masaki
month
has made Japan's (and everybody else's) space
surveillance systems more vulnerable.
Theoretically, China now can shoot down spy
satellites launched by other countries.
Still a long way to go Some
experts say that the number of spy satellites
Japan has in orbit should be at least doubled to
eight so that they can survey virtually any point
in the world at least twice every day, instead
of
once
every day under the four-satellite system. The US
has at least 15 spy satellites in operation. The
Japanese spy satellites are also much inferior to
their US counterparts in quality. The US
satellites have a much higher resolution.
But the 1969 Diet resolution has been a
constraint on significantly improving the quality
of Japanese satellites. Diet resolutions are
customarily adopted by consensus. Since it is
almost impossible for the Diet to revise the 1969
resolution by consensus, Prime Minister Abe's
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is strenuously
trying to push through what it calls the "Basic
Space Law" to allow the use of space for
self-defense purposes.
The legislation
would call for setting up a Space Strategy
Headquarters to promote comprehensive
space-related policies. The three main pillars of
the legislation would be: reinforcing the nation's
security through the development and utilization
of space; promoting space-related research and
development; and promoting the development of the
domestic space industry.
The life span of
the four Japanese spy satellites is about five
years. A new optical satellite with a higher
resolution is to be launched in fiscal 2009,
followed by a new radar one in fiscal 2011. The
experimental satellite to be launched on Saturday
is to obtain data for the new optical satellite to
be blasted off in fiscal 2009.
Some
experts also say Japan needs to possess
early-warning satellites that can detect launches
of enemy intercontinental and submarine-launched
ballistic missiles. In addition to at least 15 spy
satellites, the US has five early-warning
satellites. At present, only the US and Russia
have early-warning satellites in operation. One of
the biggest questions for Japan is the cost. The
four Japanese spy satellites cost a total of 200
billion yen ($1.66 billion) - 50 billion yen per
satellite. An early-warning satellite costs 300
billion yen. In addition, Japan's possession of an
early-warning satellite would very likely alarm
China.
Shifting into high
gear But Tokyo still sees North Korea as
its main security threat, especially since
Pyongyang's launch of missiles last July and
atomic test in October, and has accelerated
efforts to deploy a missile-defense system in
cooperation with the US.
Shortly after
North Korea's missile launches in July, the then
defense chief, Fukushiro Nukaga, said Japan should
consider possessing capabilities to strike North
Korea's missile sites. Shinzo Abe, then chief
cabinet secretary, also said, "If we accept that
there is no other option to prevent an attack ...
there is the view that attacking the launching
site of the guided missiles is within the
constitutional right of self-defense."
Still, it is one thing to talk about
defensively striking North Korean missile sites,
and it is another to obtain the capabilities for
doing so. But Japan has no cruise or ballistic
missiles that can reach North Korea. Nor has it a
fighter equipped with air-to-surface missiles with
a range long enough to make a sortie to North
Korea and then return safely.
In July
2005, the Diet revised the Self-Defense Forces
(SDF) Law to allow the then Defense Agency chief -
now the defense minister - to order emergency
missile intercepts without waiting for approval
from the prime minister and the cabinet. Since
North Korean missiles could reach Japanese
territory within about 10 minutes, the defense
chief could not afford to follow normal procedures
for getting permission at a cabinet meeting to
launch interceptor missiles.
If acquiring
cruise missiles would stretch Japan's pacifist
constitution (which Abe wants to change) to the
breaking point, if spy satellites must be
disguised as something else, there appear to be no
such constraints for expanding the country's
anti-missile defenses. Abe's government will make
a significant boost in missile-defense
expenditures despite a minuscule cut in overall
defense spending due to the nation's tight fiscal
condition, the worst among major industrialized
countries.
The government budget plan for
the next fiscal year starting in April, now
pending in the Diet, calls for overall defense
spending of 4.8 trillion yen for fiscal 2007, down
12.3 billion yen , or 0.3%, from the amount
allocated in the current fiscal year's initial
budget, marking the fifth straight year of
decline. But it calls for a sharp rise in
missile-defense expenditures to 182.6 billion yen,
up
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