Page 3 of
3 Japan: When a spy
satellite isn't a spy
satellite By Hisane Masaki
42.7 billion
yen, or 30.5%, from the initial budget for the
current fiscal year.
The government's
budget plan, finalized last December, is expected
to be enacted next month on the strength of the
LDP-led coalition's majority in both Diet
chambers. Separately from the fiscal 2007 budget
plan, the supplementary budget for fiscal 2006,
which was enacted this month, includes an
additional 7.6 billion yen for Patriot Advanced
Capability 3 (PAC3) missiles and 4.5
billion yen to upgrade EP-3
reconnaissance aircraft.
The Defense
Ministry plans to deploy the first PAC3
surface-to-air interceptor missiles in Saitama
prefecture, next to Tokyo, by the end of March, as
originally planned, and in three other
prefectures, also adjacent to Tokyo, by the end of
2007, instead of the original March 2008 deadline.
The Air SDF bases where the PAC3 systems are to be
deployed by the end of this year are Iruma Base in
Saitama prefecture, Narashino Base in Chiba
prefecture, Kasumigaura Base in Ibaraki
prefecture, and Takeyama Base in Kanagawa
prefecture.
The missile-defense budget
increase for fiscal 2007 is mainly to pay for
accelerating the deployment of PAC3 missiles. It
will advance some PAC3 purchases from the US
originally planned for fiscal 2008 or later,
resulting in an increase in the number of PAC3
missiles to be deployed in the four prefectures
surrounding Tokyo by the end of 2007.
Tokyo also plans to install Standard
Missile-3 (SM3) interceptors on its Aegis-equipped
destroyer Kongou by the end of this calendar year
instead of by the end of fiscal 2007 on March 31,
2008, as had been planned earlier. Japan also
plans to finish refitting its three other Aegis
ships so they can carry the SM3 system by the end
of fiscal 2010.
US also accelerates
deployment Japan and the US envisage a
two-stage interception system to deal with a
possible missile attack. First, Aegis vessels from
both countries would try to intercept an incoming
missile in space by launching SM3 missiles. If
unsuccessful, the PAC3 missiles would provide the
next line of defense.
Still, it will take
at least four more years for Japan's PAC3
deployment program to cover not only the Tokyo
metropolitan area but also other areas of the
country. For this reason, the Defense Ministry has
requested that the US deploy a seaborne
missile-defense system around Japan as soon as
possible.
Last August, the US Navy sent
the USS Shiloh, a cruiser equipped with both the
Aegis missile tracking and engaging system and SM3
interceptor missiles, to Yokosuka Naval Base near
Tokyo. The Shiloh is one of three upgraded
Aegis-equipped warships and is the first to be
deployed outside the US.
At present, eight
Aegis-equipped warships, including the Shiloh, are
stationed at the base. Another such warship is
expected to be deployed there as early as June.
But among the eight Aegis-equipped warships
currently stationed at the base, only the Shiloh
can shoot down short- and medium-range missiles.
The US Navy said recently that it plans to upgrade
and give such a capability to most of the
Aegis-equipped warships at the base by 2009.
The US has also deployed PAC3 missiles at
its Kadena Air Base on Okinawa, the first such
missiles at a US base in Japan. To be sure, the
newly deployed missiles, which have been
operational since December, are limited in their
capability to counter any possible North Korean
attacks.
They provide a cover of about a
100km radius, meaning they would be unable to
protect the heavily populated Tokyo or Osaka
areas. But they are significant given the fact
that the largest US bases and nearly 50,000 troops
are on Okinawa, making it a potential the main
target of North Korean attacks.
Japan has
also asked the United States to deploy PAC3
missiles at US bases in the Tokyo metropolitan
area, most likely at Yokota Air Base and Yokosuka
Naval Base.
Last May, Japan and the US
signed a final agreement on the realignment of US
bases and forces in Japan, which includes the
movement of Japan's Air Defense Command to Yokota.
There they will create a joint missile-defense
command center in fiscal 2010. Creation of the
center is aimed at strengthening Japan's ability
to detect and deal with enemy missile launches.
Prompted by North Korea's nuclear test and
calls from the US, the Abe government has begun to
consider stretching the boundaries of the postwar
pacifist constitution to make it possible for
Japan to strike North Korean ballistic missiles
heading to the United States, a move that has
stirred up controversy. In 2003, the government of
then prime minister Junichiro Koizumi issued a
statement that Japan cannot shoot down missiles
bound for the US because doing so would be
tantamount to collective defense - or coming to
the military aid of an ally under attack - banned
under the nation's supreme law.
Aside from
the constitutional issue, technical hurdles remain
to be cleared if Japan is to shoot down North
Korean missiles bound for the US. SM3 interceptors
are to be installed on four Japanese
Aegis-equipped destroyers, starting at the end of
this year, on the assumption that they would shoot
down North Korean Rodong missiles with a 1,300km
range. They would not be able to intercept
longer-range missiles that fly at higher speed and
altitude en route to the continental United States
or US Pacific territories.
But things
might change. Japan and the US are now jointly
developing an advanced version of the SM3. Given
anticipated future technological innovations,
there is a possibility that Japanese
Aegis-equipped destroyers might be capable of
destroying US-bound long-range ballistic missiles
with their advanced SM3 interceptors.
Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based
journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's
e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com.
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