The US government has officially
acknowledged that it intends to sell an advanced
fighter to Japan. The smart money says it will be
the F-22 Raptor, a stealth air-superiority
fighter.
The F-22 is considered the most
advanced air-superiority fighter in the world.
Built by Lockheed Martin, it is equipped with
electronically scanned array radar for
cruise-missile detection, has wide-band data
links, and is capable of evading advanced air
defenses to bomb ballistic-missile launch sites.
Its operational
radius extends as far as
2,000 kilometers. The F-22 can also operate about
5km higher (at 65,000 feet, or 19,800 meters) than
other fighters.
The aircraft goes for
US$136 million each, not including development
costs. But some news reports say Japan would be
willing to pay $300 million each for a fleet of
100 jets.
Aviation Week & Space
Technology reports that Japan will also carry the
cost of integrating an anti-tamper kit on key
technologies, including hardware and software, on
the F-22. Estimates range from $600 million to
$1.2 billion for the cost of doing this.
Key software that would be protected, for
example, manipulates and integrates the advanced,
cruise-missile-detecting radar and long-range
electronic-surveillance array, as well as the
aircraft's other target detection and analysis
sensors. Exporting the technology isn't a concern
for US combat pilots, since software packages for
US versions of the aircraft will always contain
extra capabilities.
Last June, during a US
military training exercise, the F-22A achieved a
144-0 kill-to-loss ratio against F-15s, F-16s and
F/A-18s, which outnumbered the F-22A by about 4-1
during the exercises.
If Japan obtains up
to 100 F-22s, it will have the world's
second-biggest air force and dominate the skies
over the Korean Peninsula and China. Officials
claim Japan needs the fighter available to defend
against the Chinese Su-27 and Su-30s. Media
reports say the Japanese are firmly committed to
acquiring the F-22 to complement their recently
acquired airborne defense platforms, including
KC-767 airborne refueling tankers and E-767 AWACS
(Airborne Warning and Control System) aircraft.
Japanese Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma has
already requested more information from the
Pentagon on the F-22 to study the capabilities of
the aircraft and begin serious dialogue for a
potential purchase.
Dennis Wilder, senior
director for East Asian Affairs on the US National
Security Council staff, confirmed a future deal
one day before Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
visited the United States last month. In response
to a reporter's question, Wilder said:
In terms of future fighters for
Japan, obviously, the Japanese air force has
requirements. China is modernizing, at a rapid
pace, its air force. The Japanese obviously feel
some threat in relation to North Korea and its
development of missile and nuclear capabilities.
And so we are very positively disposed to
talking to the Japanese about future-generation
fighter aircraft.
One sign that the
deal with the F-22s will go ahead is that Japan
and the United States recently conducted joint air
force drills involving a squadron of F-22 stealth
fighters temporarily deployed at Kadena Air Base
in Okinawa.
Although US law forbids the
export of the F-22, with a few exceptions, to
protect its technology, Congress seems ready to
change the law to lift the ban, and the
administration already has expressed willingness
to negotiate with Tokyo over their sale.
Lockheed Martin Corp and its F-22 partners
- Boeing Co and United Technologies Corp's Pratt
& Whitney unit - would, of course, love to
sell the planes to other countries, because
greater production numbers would lower costs and
raise profits. This is because domestically, US
law limits the planes to just one customer - the
US Air Force (USAF).
Also, overseas sales
could extend the production line beyond 2011, when
the last of the 183 Raptors currently planned is
due to be sent to the USAF.
Still, the
sale is not a foregone conclusion. Reuters
reported that USAF Lieutenant-General Jeffrey
Kohler, head of the Pentagon's Defense Security
Cooperation Agency, which coordinates
government-to-government weapons sales overseas,
said that designing an export version of the F-22
could cost more than $1 billion and be
"prohibitively expensive" for any would-be foreign
buyer.
"If [export] were to be considered
... it essentially would have to be redesigned,
rebuilt, retested and then go into production." He
said the US intent is to supply Lockheed Martin's
next-generation stealthy F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter, due to be available for export in about
2015.
If the US government does allow the
export of F-22 stealth fighters to Japan, it will
be seen as an indication that Washington has made
up its mind to strengthen the US-Japan alliance as
part of its security strategy in the Northeast
Asian region.
Some Japanese think that the
US should sell the F-22 because Japan provides the
US forward bases in the region as well as
dispersal and rapid-deployment options in case of
a military confrontation or natural disaster, say
US officials.
Israel will also be watching
the possible sale quite closely as it has shown
keen interest in acquiring the F-22.
Acquisition of the F-22A would also be
consistent with Abe's vision of Japan's foreign
policy. During a March 18 speech at the National
Defense Academy of Japan, Abe reiterated his call
for the country to adopt a more assertive foreign
policy and improve military capabilities. He
called for further strengthening of the "Japan-US
alliance while steadily upgrading our country's
national-security platform".
Over the past
two years, the US and Japan have accelerated
cooperation in ballistic-missile defense, with
Japan procuring PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability
3) batteries and the naval Standard Missile SM-3
air-defense systems. Additionally, Tokyo has
acquired upgraded EP-3 patrol aircraft, radar and
other facilities related to C4ISR (command,
control, communications, computers, intelligence,
surveillance and reconnaissance).
In terms
of regional reaction, some countries have
expressed concern. South Korea has hinted it will
also seek to procure the F-22 to cope with any
possible security jitters. Defense Minister Kim
Jang-soo hinted that his country will review its
plan to buy F-15 aircraft and seek the more
advanced F-22 models. Under a 2002 deal, South
Korea is now procuring 40 F-15 jets from US
aerospace giant Boeing and is expected to purchase
20 more F-15 jets to replace its aging fleet of
F-4 Phantom IIs.
Meanwhile, China has
already started developing its own advanced
stealth fighters, Jian-13 and Jian-14, to match
the F-22s. In response, Taiwan plans to acquire 60
F-16 C/Ds from the US to upgrade its preparedness.
David Isenberg is a senior
research analyst at the British American Security
Information Council, a member of the Coalition for
a Realistic Foreign Policy, a research fellow at
the Independent Institute, and an adviser to the
Straus Military Reform Project of the Center for
Defense Information, Washington. These views are
his own.
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