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2 Japan's birth rate rises -
barely By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - Japan saw its abysmally low
fertility rate rise - from a low of 1.26 in 2005 -
to 1.32 in 2006. It was the first uptick in six
years, providing a glimmer of hope for a nation
whose population is graying at a pace probably
unprecedented in history. The fertility rate is
the average number of babies a woman bears during
her lifetime.
But the question is whether
- and for how long - the recovery in the nation's
birth rate, which is among the lowest in the
world, will
last. In fact, it appears
likely to be short-lived. If that's the case, the
world's currently second-biggest economy will
continue to be plagued by various woes, including
the already creaking social-security system and a
possible erosion of the economy's international
competitiveness, as the working-age population
thins out.
The 2006 figure was the highest
since 2000, which posted a slight increase due to
"millennium babies". Japan's total fertility rate
stood at 1.33 in 2001, 1.32 in 2002 and 1.29 in
both 2003 and 2004. By prefecture, the fertility
rate was highest in Okinawa at 1.74 and lowest in
Tokyo at 1.02.
Japan's population also
grew in 2006 by 8,174 after declining for the
first time since the end of World War II in 2005.
The number of births in 2006 increased by 30,132
from 2005 to 1,092,662, while the number of deaths
exceeded the 1 million level for four years in a
row, rising to 1,084,488, the highest number since
1947.
The Ministry of Health, Labor and
Welfare attributed the rise primarily to the
improved employment situation amid an economic
recovery, which encouraged more people to get
married and have babies. In fact, the number of
marriages increased for the first time in five
years in 2006, with a total of 730,973 couples
tying the knot, 16,708 more than in the previous
year.
Last September, Princess Kiko, wife
of Emperor Akihito's second son, Prince Akishino,
gave birth to the first male heir to the imperial
throne in four decades, saving the royal family
from a succession crisis. The nationally
celebrated birth may also have encouraged some
Japanese women to have babies, at least
temporarily.
It is still premature,
however, to conclude that the low-birth-rate trend
has finally bottomed out. Some experts point out
that the 2006 rate rise was partly a reaction to
very low levels of rates in the previous few
years, during which some women just delayed giving
birth. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
itself cautioned against optimism. "The long-term
trend of a decreasing population of children
remains unchanged,'' the ministry said.
It
is also widely believed that the "second
baby-boomers" born in the early 1970s have made
primary contributions to a recent increase in
marriages and births. These people of
child-bearing age will decline in number in the
coming years. By age bracket, those aged between
30 and 34 accounted for 40% of the increase in the
number of marriages in 2006. The women of that age
group also gave birth to most babies in 2006,
delivering about 420,000 children, up 3.2% from
the previous year.
More important, the
number of women aged between 15 and 49 is expected
to shrink sharply, from about 27 million at
present to about 24 million in 15 years' time.
This makes it very likely that even if the
nation's birth rate rises somewhat, the number of
births will decline.
Japan's population
now stands at about 127 million. A minimum
fertility rate of 2.07 is said to be needed if
Japan is to avoid a population decline, but the
actual rate has been lower than that minimum
necessary replacement level since 1973. The rate
dropped to about 1.5 in the early 1990s and then
below 1.3 in 2003.
Japan's birth rate is
among the lowest in the world. The rate was 2.05
in the United States in 2005 and 2.01 in France in
2006. The rate was 1.36 in Germany, 1.33 in Italy
and 1.75 in Sweden, all in 2004, and 1.71 in the
United Kingdom in 2003. Among countries with lower
birth rates than Japan is South Korea, where the
rate stood at 1.13 on a preliminary basis in 2006.
In a report released on May 29, the
National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research predicted that almost half of
Japan's 47 prefectures will see their populations
fall by more than 20% over the three decades from
2005. Tokyo and Okinawa are the only prefectures
that are expected to see their populations rise
during that period, the report said. With job
seekers flocking to the capital, Tokyo is expected
to account for 11.5% of Japan's total population
in 2035, up from 9.8% in 2005, the report said.
Japan is at a historic juncture
demographically, with the rapid aging of the
population. Its birth rates had precipitously
declined on an annual basis until making a
recovery last year. Even before the population
showed its first decline since the end of World
War II in 2005, two years earlier than widely
expected, the working-age population had already
begun to shrink several years earlier. The
percentage of people aged 65 or over has exceeded
20% of the total population, while that of
children aged 14 or under has declined below 14%.
Not only is Japan's birth rate already
among the lowest in the industrialized world, but
its pace of decline, until bouncing back last
year, was the fastest. This has been largely
attributed by experts to such factors as
employment insecurity, long working hours and poor
public aid for child-rearing.
Economic
factors are most often cited as the primary reason
more and more Japanese get married in later life
or choose - or are even forced to choose - to
remain single. Working women in particular need or
want to work, but it is not easy to combine
employment and child-rearing because of the poor
quality of child-care services available,
unfavorable employment practices, and rigid
working conditions.
To be sure, the number
of marriages increased for the first time in five
years in 2006. But no basic change can be seen in
the trends of late marriages and births. The
Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare's report,
released on Wednesday, showed that the average age
at first marriage in 2006 was 30 for husbands and
28.2 for wives, both up 0.2 from 2005 and the
highest on record.
The government white
paper on the labor market, released last August,
said that the steady increase in low-wage,
part-time workers and those in temporary jobs is
contributing to the low birth rate as people
become reluctant to marry because of
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