Page 2 of 2 Japan: A political tsunami
approaches By Hisane Masaki
LDP and 24 by New Komeito. The DPJ has 81
seats, and the rest are held by smaller parties
and independents.
It appears almost
certain that the LDP-led coalition will lose some
seats in this month's election. Up for grabs are
half of the chamber's members elected in the
summer of 2001, soon after Koizumi took the helm
of the LDP and government. In that election, the
LDP won big amid the "Koizumi fever" among
Japanese voters.
To
maintain a majority in the upper house, the ruling
camp needs to win at least 64 seats, including
those of independents cooperating with the ruling
parties. If New Komeito secures 13 seats, the same
number it won in the 2001 election, the LDP will
have to garner 51 seats to reach the win-or-loss
threshold of 64 and claim victory for the
coalition.
New Komeito, as the LDP's
coalition partner, has not been immune from
criticism over the pension and other issues. "If
the LDP is counting on us to win 13 seats, we're
worried," said New Komeito chief representative
Akihiro Ota. "It's extremely difficult [to
maintain 13 seats] in the midst of such an adverse
wind."
Abe will probably stay on as LDP
president and prime minister if the coalition
fails to maintain a majority in the upper house
only by a narrow margin. There is no obvious
successor to Abe. The question is what will happen
if the coalition suffers a much heavier loss.
Foreign Minister Taro Aso is widely tipped
as the most likely candidate to succeed Abe if the
premier is forced to stand down. Some pundits also
name former chief cabinet secretary Yasuo Fukuda
as a likely candidate.
If the LDP gets
between 45 and 49 seats, the LDP-led coalition
could still maintain a majority by inviting
another party, such as the People's New Party
(PNP), into the coalition. The party has drawn
international attention because it and former
Peruvian president Alberto Fujimori announced last
week that he will run in the upcoming upper-house
election on the PNP ticket. Fujimori, 68, who has
Peruvian-Japanese dual citizenship, sought asylum
in Japan after his government collapsed amid a
scandal seven years ago. Fujimori is now under
house arrest in Chile, facing extradition to Peru
on human-rights and corruption charges.
Meanwhile, Abe has so far ruled out
holding the House of Representatives election
simultaneously with the House of Councilors
election on July 29. "The lower-house election is
intended to ask voters which government they want
to choose," Abe said on Sunday. "Dissolving [the
lower house] for a general election isn't on the
table."
Fatal political
bombshell? Kyuma's resignation as defense
minister on Tuesday came as yet another - and
possibly fatal - political bombshell. "I regret
that my comments have caused trouble. I am very
sorry," Kyuma said after submitting his
resignation to Abe.
Kyuma, a 66-year-old
veteran LDP lawmaker, caused an uproar and
infuriated many, especially A-bomb survivors, when
he said in a speech last Saturday, ''I understand
the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
brought the war to its end. I think it was
something that couldn't be helped.''
Japanese leaders rarely comment on the use
of atomic bombs by the United States against Japan
for fear of damaging ties with the US, its most
important ally. Although Japan, as the only
country that has suffered A-bomb attacks, has
spearheaded international calls for an ultimate
elimination of nuclear weapons around the globe
for many years, it has been protected by the
nuclear umbrella of the US.
Abe has been
plagued by political scandals involving some of
his own cabinet members. Last December, Genichiro
Sata stepped down as administrative reform
minister to take responsibility for the
"inappropriate accounting" of his political funds
and was replaced by Yoshimi Watanabe. In May,
agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister
Toshikatsu Matsuoka committed suicide amid a
scandal involving his own political funds and was
replaced by Norihiko Akagi.
The prime
minister himself has faced a barrage of criticism
from the public as well as opposition parties for
failing to handle those scandals properly and
exert strong leadership. In the eyes of critics,
Abe seemed to be out of touch with public
feelings, taking the scandals less than seriously
and intent on just shielding his political allies
in the dire straits.
Abe initially tried
to take Kyuma's remarks in stride. On Sunday,
Kyuma apologized for and retracted them. On
Monday, Abe rebuked Kyuma and warned him to be
more careful with his words, but rejected
opposition calls to sack him.
Abe
apparently miscalculated public opinion and
responses from his own coalition. Even after
Kyuma's apology and public dressing-down by Abe,
calls for the defense minister's resignation
continued to mount, not only from opposition
parties but also from some members of the LDP and
New Komeito.
In January, Kyuma also
criticized the US over its handling of a plan to
relocate the US Marine Corps Futenma Air Station
within the southernmost Japanese island prefecture
of Okinawa and said the US should "stop being so
bossy".
Opposition lawmakers criticized
Abe's appointment of Koike, with the Japan
Communist Party's Tadayoshi Ichida saying she had
once responded to a newspaper questionnaire that
she thought it was acceptable for Japan to
consider going nuclear depending on the
international situation.
A graduate of
Cairo University, Koike is fluent in Arabic as
well as English. She is said to share common views
with Abe on basic security and foreign-policy
issues. Like Abe, Koike is known as a staunch
anti-North Korea hardliner.
Koike, a
telegenic former news anchor, is among those who
played prominent roles in the LDP's landslide
victory in the last election for the House of
Representatives, held in September 2005. After the
election, Koike was retained by Koizumi as
environment chief.
As Koizumi's
environment minister, Koike introduced, in 2005,
the "Cool Biz" campaign of encouraging office
workers to dress lightly without a tie or jacket
during their work hours in summer. The campaign is
part of Japan's efforts to reach its
greenhouse-gas reduction goal under the Kyoto
Protocol on curbing global warming. Abe appointed
Koike as new defense chief, apparently hoping that
it will help turn around the chilly prospects of
his cabinet and LDP in the upcoming House of
Councilors election.
But her appointment
will do nothing to cool down raging public furor
over the pension fiasco and other scandals. It
would be safer to bet on a harsh voters' verdict
for Abe and his coalition on July 29.
Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based
journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's
e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com).
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