Page 1 of 2 A moment of truth for Japan's
Abe By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - When Japanese voters go to the
polls for the House of Councilors (Upper House of
the Diet, or parliament) elections on Sunday, an
opposition victory is widely seen as a safe bet,
and attention is focused on how big Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition will lose.
The coalition between the Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, New
Komeito, has continued to be on the defensive
in
the face of a barrage of attacks from the
opposition over a pension scandal, by far the
biggest issue in the triennial poll.
Among
other issues are a possible increase in the
consumption tax, the perceived widening of the gap
between rich and poor, educational reform, cleaner
politics, and reform of the public-service system.
Although Abe initially vowed to make any
constitutional amendments a key election issue,
foreign and security policies, as well as the
constitution issue, have been largely pushed to
the back burner.
When results are made
known on Monday, with the expected defeat of Abe's
coalition, it will not automatically lead to his
resignation, because the coalition is in full
control of the House of Representatives, the more
powerful Lower House of the bicameral Diet. Abe
doubles as LDP president.
Nevertheless, if
the coalition fails to retain a majority in the
242-seat upper chamber, the Abe government will be
a lame duck, at best, because it will face
significant difficulties in pushing through its
legislative agenda. This would result in political
paralysis and fuel pressure for Abe to dissolve
the House of Representatives early for a general
election.
Former prime minister Yoshiro
Mori, a mentor of Abe, acknowledged on Thursday
that if the ruling coalition loses a majority in
the Upper House, the premier will be forced to
dissolve the lower house before too long.
And if the ruling camp loses its majority
in the House of Councilors by a large margin, then
Abe may even be forced to step down. But his
resignation would not change what Japanese call
the "twist phenomenon" of the House of
Representatives being dominated by the ruling camp
and the House of Councilors controlled by the
opposition camp. Some pundits even say that
Sunday's election could trigger a new wave of
realignments in Japanese politics.
Markets watching closely If Abe
stays in office despite his coalition losing
control of the Upper House, the effects on the
financial markets might be limited. As things
stand, however, Abe's resignation and a subsequent
period of political confusion and instability
cannot be ruled out. If this happens, both the
Japanese currency and stock market will likely
face selling pressure. The Bank of Japan might
then be discouraged from raising interest rates
early. Many analysts have so far expected the next
rate hike by the central bank by late August.
At stake in the polls are half of the 242
seats in the House of Councilors. Of the 121 seats
being contested, 73 will be elected in prefectural
electoral districts and the remaining 48 through
proportional representation. A total of 377
candidates vying for the 121 seats are making
last-minute appeals for support before the 17-day
official campaign period ends on Saturday evening.
Of the 377 candidates, 218 are running in
prefectural electoral districts and 159 in
proportional representation.
At present,
the LDP-New Komeito coalition has a majority of
134 seats, with 110 held by the LDP and 24 by New
Komeito. The biggest opposition party, the
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has 81 seats, and
the rest are held by smaller parties and
independents.
The 121 seats up for grabs
were elected in the summer of 2001, soon after
Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, took the
helm of the LDP and the government. In that
election, the LDP won big amid a wave of "Koizumi
fever". The then-tripartite coalition of the LDP,
New Komeito and the now-defunct Conservative Party
boosted its strength in the Upper House to 138
seats. The LDP alone won 64 seats, more than half
of the seats up for re-election.
In the
most recent Upper House election in the summer of
2004, however, the LDP-New Komeito coalition
failed to win a majority of the other 121 seats
contested, gaining 60 seats. What was more
shocking for the LDP - and for the then-LDP
secretary general, Abe, in particular - was that
the party won only 49 seats, significantly down
from 64 in the 2001 election and even fewer than
the 50 seats won by the DPJ.
The ruling
camp has 58 seats, including those of allied
independents, that are not being contested in
Sunday's election. To maintain a majority in the
Upper House, the ruling camp therefore needs to
win at least 64 seats, including those of
independents cooperating with the ruling parties.
If New Komeito secures 13 seats, the same number
it won in the 2001 Upper
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