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2 The people speak; Abe's not
listening By Hisane Masaki
TOKYO - As widely expected, a political
tsunami has swept through Japan and altered the
nation's landscape amid an ever-swelling wave of
public anger over the government's pension
records-keeping fiasco and other scandals.
Japanese voters clearly wrote off the
embattled government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
in Sunday's election for the House of Councilors
(Upper House of the Diet, or parliament), his first
national electoral test since
taking office last September. Abe's Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP)-led coalition suffered a
crushing defeat and lost control of the Upper
House by a huge margin.
The biggest
opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ) , became the largest party in the chamber,
far outnumbering the LDP, making it almost certain
that a DPJ lawmaker will assume the post of Upper
House president. It is the first time the LDP has
slipped to the second-largest party in the Upper
House since its foundation in 1955.
Of the
121 Upper House seats on offer, the LDP and its
coalition partner New Komeito won 46 seats, fewer
than the 64 needed to keep their majority. The DPJ
won 60 seats. The LDP has a majority in the Lower
House. The ruling camp saw the total number of its
seats in the 242-seat Upper House, including those
of allied independents, plummet to 105 from the
pre-election's 134, while the opposition boosted
its strength to 137 seats from 108.
Despite his coalition's drubbing in a poll
largely dominated by the pension issue, the
52-year-old prime minister refuses to be pensioned
off. A grim-faced Abe, who doubles as LDP
president, said on Sunday night, "This humiliating
setback is my responsibility." But he expressed
his determination to cling to power. "Our
nation-building has just begun," Abe said. "I
would like to continue to fulfill my
responsibility as prime minister." New Komeito
said it will back Abe staying in power.
The LDP held a board meeting on Monday and
decided to allow Abe to remain as party president.
Abe told the meeting, "I will keep promoting
reforms. I expect [senior LDP members] to tackle
the issue of money and politics more vigorously."
The board also decided to discuss with the
opposition bloc to convene an extraordinary Diet
session for four days from August 7 after new
members of the Upper House take their seats. Later
on Monday, the LDP also formally reaffirmed with
New Komeito that they will maintain their
partnership and support the administration under
Abe.
Before Sunday's poll, Abe's allies
within the coalition said that Abe would not have
to resign no matter how badly the coalition fared,
claiming that it was not a referendum on his
leadership.
But elections for the House of
Councilors, which take place every three years,
are often seen as a referendum on the government.
According to a survey conducted last week by the
Yomiuri Shimbun national daily, 48% of those
polled said Abe should resign in the event of his
coalition losing its majority, compared with 26%
who said he should not do so.
And Abe
himself seemed to have positioned the election as
a referendum on his government. During a debate
with DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa this month, Abe said,
"Which one of us, Mr Ozawa or myself, is more
suitable as a prime minister? I ask the nation to
make the judgment."
On Sunday night,
meanwhile, LDP secretary general Hidenao Nakagawa
submitted his resignation to Abe, and LDP Upper
House caucus leader Mikio Aoki suggested that he
will also step down to take responsibility for the
defeat. Abe also suggested he will reshuffle his
cabinet and the LDP leadership, apparently to make
a fresh start, but he ruled out dissolving the
House of Representatives, the more powerful Lower
House of the bicameral Diet, early for a general
election.
Symbolizing the major setback
for the LDP is the loss of Toranosuke Katayama,
the No 2 man in the LDP's Upper House caucus and a
leader of the party's campaign strategy, in his
Okayama constituency against a 48-year-old female
rookie from the DPJ.
The cabinet and LDP
leadership reshuffle is expected between late
August and September, after Abe's planned
week-long tour of India, Indonesia and Malaysia,
which starts on August 19. Among likely candidates
to replace Nakagawa are Foreign Minister Taro Aso
and Toshihiro Nikai, chairman of the LDP's Diet
affairs committee.
It remains to be seen,
however, how long Abe's government will be able to
keep itself afloat. Pressure is expected to mount
for Abe to resign, not only from the opposition
camp and the public but also from within his own
coalition. Leaders of the LDP's major factions
immediately expressed their support for Abe's
intention to stay in power, largely because there
is no obvious successor and also because they
believe his resignation would only add to
political confusion. But some party members will
certainly be asking questions.
Meanwhile,
DPJ secretary general Yukio Hatoyama said on
Monday, "The Diet elections are confidence votes
in the government. Voters have sent a strong
message that they have no confidence in the Abe
administration." Other opposition party leaders
have added their voices to those calling for Abe's
ouster.
To be sure, the LDP-led coalition
commands more than a two-thirds majority of seats
in the 480-seat House of Representatives, which
has greater legislative power and the final say on
state budgets, as well as the election of the
prime minister. Abe himself is a Lower House
member.
But the outcome of Sunday's
election will very likely make his government a
lame duck, as it will face significant
difficulties in pushing through its legislative
agendas, paralyzing policymaking.
An
emboldened DPJ is poised to put pressure on Abe to
dissolve the House of Representatives before
scheduled September 2009 elections. Former prime
minister Yoshiro Mori, a mentor of Abe's,
acknowledged last Thursday that if the ruling
coalition lost its majority in the Upper House,
Abe would be forced to dissolve the Lower House
before too long. This is a big - and risky - step,
though.
Thus the so-called "twist
phenomenon" of the Lower House being dominated by
the ruling camp and the House of Councilors being
controlled by the opposition will continue at
least until the next triennial election for the
Upper House in 2010. The weakened ruling bloc is
expected to try to win over independents,
members
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