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2 Move over, Mr Prime
Minister By Purnendra Jain
ADELAIDE - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, his
coalition heavily defeated in elections for the
House of Councilors (Upper House of the Diet, or
parliament) on Sunday, will unlikely last very
long in office if he can't improve his popularity
rate and if his policy appeal to broad sections of
society remains unattractive.
Of the 121
seats up for elections, Abe's Liberal Democratic
Party (LDP) won only 37 seats, while the
opposition Democratic Party
of
Japan (DPJ) claimed 60 seats. This leaves the LDP
with 105 seats in the 242-seat Upper House,
including those of allied independents, from 134,
while the opposition boosted its strength to 137
seats, from 108.
In the event of Abe
stepping down, the front-runner to succeed him is
Foreign Minister Taro Aso. But Aso is not strong
either, nor are his political credentials
impeccable. He is equally as hawkish as Abe and
holds similar views on constitutional revision and
education policy. His political credentials have
suffered severe setbacks with his political
gaffes, including his comments that even
Alzheimer's sufferers could understand the reason
for selling more Japanese rice to China. The aging
population of Japan did not take Aso's comment
kindly.
Some have even suggested that
Junichiro Koizumi, who retired last September,
return to the leadership - not impossible but
unlikely. In times of political instability a
lesser-known compromise candidate often is put
forward as a "seat warmer".
This is what
happened when Toshiki Kaifu was chosen to lead the
LDP in 1989 in the wake of political and sexual
scandals and a disastrous electoral performance at
the 1989 Upper House elections. Yasuo Fukuda, who
quietly withdrew from the LDP presidential race
when Koizumi retired, is also mentioned.
Although the party holds a solid majority
in the more powerful House of Representatives
(Lower House) because of political strategies
masterminded by Koizumi, this is unlikely to be
repeated. The party therefore needs someone
"attractive" to maintain its majority in the next
Lower House elections scheduled for 2009.
How far Ichiro Ozawa's DPJ will be able to
take advantage of the political momentum and place
itself strategically to snatch power from the LDP
is hard to tell. Such moments in Japanese politics
have presented themselves previously, but on most
occasions opposition leaders were unable to make
the most of them.
When the Japan Socialist
Party performed well at the 1989 Upper House
elections, its leader Takako Doi was widely
regarded as likely to become the first female
prime minister. In 1993, when the opposition was
able to grab power from the LDP, it was unable to
hold on to it even for a year. The LDP bounced
back quickly.
Ozawa is in a position to
create history, or let history repeat itself.
While the opposition will be busy thinking about
what's next, political jockeying will start within
the LDP in search of Abe's replacement.
It
is not uncommon for a prime minister to resign
when the ruling party suffers defeat in the Upper
House. In 1998, Ryutaro Hashimoto stepped down
after the party's disastrous performance. Sosuke
Uno also resigned after the LDP's landslide defeat
in the 1989 Upper House elections. Although Uno
had clearly stated he would not resign even if the
party suffered a setback, he did so promptly after
the results, taking political responsibility for
the poor performance of his party.
Abe too
has indicated his unwillingness to resign. Some of
his senior colleagues, such as Shoichi Nakagawa,
the LDP's policy chief, have defended Abe's
continuation as prime minister. Many within the
party think Abe's immediate resignation would
trigger political instability through infighting.
For the moment, they favor the status quo.
For practical reasons, such as his
attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation Forum this September in Australia, Abe
may continue. Undoubtedly, though, he will be a
hamstrung prime minister with significantly
reduced authority both within the party and
government.
The 12-year jinx Abe was caught in the so-called 12-year jinx.
The year 2007 is the boar's, according to the
Chinese calendar which has a cycle of 12 years -
each year symbolized by a particular animal. The
Year of the Boar has a cyclical effect on Japanese
politics every 12 years.
What defines this
12-year cycle is the triennial Upper House
elections and the four-year unified local
elections being held in the same year. In the
latter, thousands of local assembly members and
the bulk of prefectural governors, city mayors,
town and village heads are elected. The "boar
phenomenon" began in 1947, the year when Japan
implemented its postwar constitution and elections
were held for all local governments and the
national parliament.
In a Year of the
Boar, according to some analysts, voters feel
fatigued after their close involvement with polls
in April and do not
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