Page 2 of 2 Move over, Mr Prime
Minister By Purnendra Jain
take voting seriously for the Upper
House elections that occur just three months
later. This traditionally produces a rather low
turnout for the Upper House elections,
disadvantaging the LDP.
Associated with
this is the less intense involvement of local
politicians in election campaigning for Upper
House candidates. Generally, local politicians
would campaign vigorously, as it provides a golden
political opportunity for them to reconnect
directly with their voters
halfway through their term in office. But in a
Year of the Boar, most local politicians are
settling down to their four-year terms just as
campaigning for the Upper House begins.
While this Year of the Boar certainly
brought disastrous results for the LDP, it did not
produce other characteristics, such as a low
turnout. This year turnout was 58.6%, about 14%
higher than the last Year of the Boar elections in
1995. One factor contributing to a higher turnout
was the new facility of absentee ballots under
which a little more than 10 million voters - or
10.33% of the registered voters - cast their
ballots without having to go to the polling
stations.
The LDP's losses are also
attributed to recent municipal mergers that
reduced the numbers of local-level politicians who
formed strong networks campaigning for LDP
candidates. Furthermore, traditional party
organizations in rural Japan have also weakened as
the population is aging and declining.
Rural revolt The LDP has
traditionally maintained a stranglehold in rural
areas. But both Koizumi's and Abe's farm policies
and cutbacks on public-works programs have
alienated rural voters.
DPJ leader Ozawa,
on the other hand, has promised to increase
various types of subsidies to rural areas. He even
stitched up a deal with anti-Koizumi LDP
heavyweight Shizuka Kamei, who was against the
controversial postal privatization plan and in
favor of public-works programs.
Thus in
this election, the 29 single-seat prefectural
districts representing rural and semi-rural areas
came under the spotlight. Many political pundits
and key leaders believed that results from these
districts would ultimately determine a party
position in the Upper House.
Under Koizumi
in the 2001 Upper House elections, 25 LDP members
were elected from single-seat rural districts. But
only six seats went to the LDP this time, while 17
went to Ozawa's DPJ and the rest to other parties.
Abe's loss has been Ozawa's gain in rural areas -
where the DPJ has been traditionally weak.
Abe's diminishing popularity
Abe started his position with great
fanfare through his successful and productive
trips to China and South Korea and high public
approval of his tough stance toward North Korea.
But his popularity began to plummet from nearly
70% when he took office from Koizumi last
September to about 40% around February and down to
below 30% just before this weekend's elections.
Some factors contributing to his decline
are of Abe's own making, such as drafting into the
party the 11 LDP parliamentarians whom Koizumi had
expelled because of their opposition to postal
reforms. It sent the wrong signals in the public's
mind as voters began to feel that Abe was
reverting to old-style leadership, courting
support from politicians with vested interests
rather than projecting himself in the image of his
reformist predecessor.
Being the first
prime minister born after World War II, Abe was
initially hailed in the role of providing new
directions to Japan, especially to its younger
population struggling for decent employment and a
secure economic future. Instead, he soon came to
be seen as a hawkish neo-nationalist stressing
patriotism through his emphasis on education and
constitutional reform "whatever the
circumstances".
Although Abe achieved some
breakthroughs in international politics by later
patching up with China and bringing Pyongyang back
to the negotiating table over its nuclear program,
on the domestic front his policies did not receive
positive responses. He did little to tackle such
burning issues as increasing economic disparity
and youth unemployment.
Further, when the
news broke of an administrative bungle in the
Social Insurance Agency that had misplaced pension
records of some 50 million people, it triggered
fears whether they would receive their due
benefits, and Abe was destined for a political
backlash, and on Sunday it arrived.
Purnendra Jain is a professor in
Asian Studies at Australia's University of
Adelaide, specializing in Japanese politics and
foreign policy.
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