Embattled Japanese PM takes a
political gamble By Hisane
Masaki
TOKYO - Taking what is widely seen
as a highly risky political gamble, embattled
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has apparently
staked his job on extending the nation's
domestically unpopular support of US-led
anti-terrorism operations in Afghanistan, which
consists mainly of providing a navy oiler to
refuel coalition warships in the Indian Ocean.
The 52-year-old prime minister's bombshell
remark, made on the eve of the opening of a key
two-month parliamentary session, has
raised the eyebrows of many,
because he has so far resisted strong calls for
his resignation, not only from the opposition but
also from the public, after his coalition's
devastating electoral drubbing in late July.
Although pubic support for the Abe cabinet
recovered a little immediately after the August 27
cabinet reshuffle and leadership changes in the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), it has plummeted
again to about 30%, according to opinion polls.
One poll shows that half of Japanese want Abe to
resign either immediately or by the end of this
year, regardless of whether the Diet (parliament)
extends the refueling program.
In a
desperate bid to reverse his own and his LDP's
sagging popularity, Abe reshuffled his cabinet and
party leadership late last month, tapping veteran
lawmakers for key posts. But only a week later,
new agriculture, forestry and fisheries minister
Takehiko Endo resigned to take responsibility for
subsidies illegally received by a farmers'
mutual-aid association headed by Endo himself,
dealing another serious blow to Abe.
While
some political pundits say Abe is seeking to
enlist support - or at least understanding - from
the public as well as the opposition camp on his
policy of continuing support of US-led operations
in Afghanistan, others say his gamble will
backfire, as it has given the opposition camp a
new burst of energy.
"I have no intention
of clinging to my duties" as prime minister if the
mission is not extended beyond the November 1
legal deadline, Abe said in a press conference in
Sydney, where he attended an annual summit of top
leaders from the 21 member economies of the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
Abe called for talks with Ichiro Ozawa,
president of the biggest opposition Democratic
Party of Japan, "as soon as possible", saying he
intends to "stake my job and deal with the issue
so as to obtain the understanding of the
opposition parties led by the DPJ".
Abe's
remarks came a day after a one-on-one meeting with
US President George W Bush on the sidelines of the
APEC summit. Bush said, "Japan provides a vital
service not only to the United States but to other
countries as a refueler of our ships." Abe said he
and Bush agreed on the importance of continuing
the mission as international society needs to
"stay united" in the fight against terrorism.
In a policy address opening a 62-day
extraordinary session of the Diet on Monday, Abe
reiterated his strong determination to continue
the refueling mission, noting that ending it would
be an abandonment of Japan's ''international
responsibilities''.
"The Self-Defense
Forces members who carry out their tasks dutifully
under the scorching heat in the Indian Ocean, that
is the kind of international contribution that the
world expects from Japan," Abe said of the SDF
deployment that is certain to dominate discussions
during the Diet session, which will run through
November 10.
"Is it really okay to pull
out now and abandon our international
responsibility?" he asked while reminding the Diet
that 24 Japanese nationals were among those who
died in the September 11, 2001, attacks in the US.
"I ask for your understanding so that the
activities can be continued.
"I hope to
deepen constructive discussions with the
opposition parties and will do my best to reach
each [policy] conclusion carefully and
courteously," Abe said, in clear contrast to the
ruling bloc's repeated passage of bills in the
ordinary Diet session earlier this year based on
its then-overwhelming strength without having to
make compromises with the opposition.
At
issue is the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law
enacted only weeks after the September 2001
terrorist attacks in New York and the Pentagon.
Under the law, Japan's Maritime SDF vessels have
been deployed in the Indian Ocean since November
2001 to refuel US-led coalition warships
supporting anti-terrorism operations in
Afghanistan.
Under then-prime minister
Junichiro Koizumi, one of Bush's staunchest allies
in the "war on terrorism" and the Iraq war, the
LDP-led coalition pushed through another special
law in July 2003 enabling non-combat troops to be
deployed in southern Iraq to assist in US-led
reconstruction efforts.
Although the
Ground SDF troops were withdrawn from Iraq in the
summer of last year, members of the Air SDF are
still deployed in Kuwait on an airlift mission for
Iraq. The special law on Iraq, which was
originally effective for four years, was extended
for two years in late June, when the LDP-led
coalition still controlled both houses of the
Diet.
These overseas troop dispatches are
consistent with Abe's push for a more assertive
foreign policy and a greater military role on the
global stage and for revising the postwar pacifist
constitution to make such commitments easier.
But the government also sees troop
deployments in the Indian Ocean and Iraq more as
an inevitable price the nation has to pay for its
strengthened security alliance with the US,
especially at a time when it faces a nuclear and
missile threat from neighboring North Korea.
There is strong concern in Tokyo that the
Japan-US alliance could suffer seriously if
Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean is
terminated. Already differences have become
apparent between Tokyo and Washington in recent
months over how to deal with North Korea, with the
former basically maintaining a hard line while the
latter is clearly shifting its approach from
confrontation to dialogue.
The DPJ has
voted against each of the three extensions of the
Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law - in 2003,
2005 and last year - but did not have the votes to
kill them. Now, because of its huge electoral
triumph this summer, it has the votes potentially
to defeat an extension bill in the House of
Councilors.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Kaoru
Yosano, the top government spokesman, indicated on
Tuesday that the ruling coalition plans to submit
to the Diet as early as this month a bill for a
new law allowing the nation to continue the
refueling mission. The new law is expected to be
limited to refueling and supplying water to US-led
coalition vessels in the Indian Ocean. For its
part, the DPJ is poised to submit its own bill to
support international operations in Afghanistan
mainly through humanitarian aid.
Abe's
bombshell "stake my job" remark has left not a few
people in political circles, even within his LDP,
skeptical about his real intentions, with some
even guessing that he merely expressed a strong
resolve to continue the refueling mission in the
Indian Ocean.
There is good reason for
some to find it difficult to take Abe's words at
face value. In the run-up to the July 29 Upper
House election, Abe, who doubles as LDP president,
said, "Which one of us, Mr Ozawa or myself, is
more suitable as a prime minister? I ask the
nation to make the judgment."
Despite the
public negative judgment on his party, Abe is
still in office.
Hisane Masaki
is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and
scholar on international politics and economy.
Masaki's e-mail address is yiu45535@nifty.com.
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