Page 2 of 2 Fukuda launches his 'do or
die' cabinet By Hisane Masaki
strong public anger over the
government's pension records-keeping fiasco and a
series of gaffes and political funds-related
scandals involving some of Abe's ministers.
The structural reform drive ignited by
Koizumi and basically inherited by Abe will very
likely lose momentum. While vowing to continue
with the drive, Fukuda has said his administration
will pay more attention to the issue of social
inequalities, including
that
between richer urban and poorer rural areas.
Although Fukuda has stressed the need for
continued fiscal discipline as the nation's fiscal
condition is the worst among major industrial
countries, he is expected to face strong pressure
from within the LDP-led coalition for more public
works and other spending to get back support in
rural areas.
There are strong concerns
within the party about a possible loss of power in
the next general election for the House of
Representatives, which must be held by September
2009 but is very likely to be held much earlier.
Most experts agree - and even many voters
feel - that a hike in the 5% consumption tax will
become inevitable in the not-so-distant future to
finance rising pension and other social-security
costs amid the rapid aging of the population and
to stem an even further rise in already huge
government debts. But serious discussions on the
issue are very likely to be shelved, at least
until after the next general election.
Fukuda, known for his dovish diplomatic
stance, has vowed to promote amicable relations
with Japan's Asian neighbors while maintaining its
pro-US foreign policy. Unlike Abe, Fukuda was
critical of Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni
Shrine, which drew angry responses from China and
South Korea. Fukuda has said he will not go to the
controversial shrine to avoid upsetting Asian
neighbors that suffered from Japanese wartime
aggressions.
Unlike Abe, an anti-North
Korea hardliner, Fukuda has also called for a
flexible stance toward the Stalinist Asian
neighbor while maintaining the "dialogue and
pressure" approach to resolve the issue of North
Korea's past abductions of Japanese nationals. "We
must devise some means to convey to the other side
our desire and readiness to conduct negotiations,"
Fukuda said recently.
The first order of
business for the Fukuda administration is to
extend the mission of the Maritime Self-Defense
Force (MSDF) to refuel vessels in the Indian Ocean
as part of efforts to support the US-led
coalition's "war against terrorism" in
Afghanistan.
At issue is the
Anti-Terrorism Special Measures Law enacted in the
weeks after the September 11, 2001, terrorist
attacks in New York City and Arlington, Virginia.
Under the law, MSDF vessels have been deployed in
the Indian Ocean since November 2001 to refuel
coalition warships. The DPJ has vowed to block
another extension of the law by flexing its newly
acquired muscles in the Upper House.
It
now appears almost certain that the refueling
mission will be terminated, at least temporarily,
when the law expires on November 1. The Fukuda
administration plans to submit a bill to the
current extraordinary Diet session to establish a
new law enabling the refueling mission. "The
mission is extremely beneficial to the
international community ... and I'm thinking to
continue it," Fukuda said.
Fukuda has won
a reputation as a hard-headed politician with a
knack for coordinating policies. He has expressed
hope that the ruling bloc will consult with the
DPJ over key policy issues, including the
refueling mission in the Indian Ocean,
pension-system reform and a possible
consumption-tax hike. "It's imperative to
negotiate with the DPJ, since they control the
House of Councilors," Fukuda said on Sunday. "If
the Diet keeps voting down bills, it'll cause
trouble to taxpayers, and I believe the DPJ shares
this concern with us."
Despite Fukuda's
conciliatory overtures, however, the DPJ,
emboldened by the opposition control of the Upper
House, is stepping up its confrontational stance
against the government and ruling parties. The new
premier is expected to face difficulties in
handling Diet affairs. The DPJ, determined to
wrest power from the LDP-led coalition, has
stepped up calls for an early general election for
the House of Representatives.
Before being
elected LDP president and prime minister, Fukuda
hinted that if he were to take the helm of the
party and government, he might dissolve the Lower
House through negotiations with opposition
parties. Speculation is already rife in political
circles that Fukuda may be considering dissolving
the Lower House next spring for an early general
election in return for the opposition bloc's
cooperation in having the fiscal 2008 state budget
enacted in the Diet.
Hisane
Masaki is a Tokyo-based journalist,
commentator and scholar on international politics
and economy. Masaki's e-mail address is
yiu45535@nifty.com.
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