TOKYO - The opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) leader Ichiro Ozawa
played out a puzzling political drama this week by first announcing his
resignation as president of the party on Sunday and then three days later by
reversing his decision to step down.
The three-day political soap opera was totally unexpected. While Ozawa for now
has made his position clear by announcing his resolve to build the party and
lead it to success at the next general election, he has also already done huge
damage to the
party and has betrayed supporter's expectations of the DPJ as a viable
alternative to replace the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
It has become amply clear that the emergence of a much-touted two-party system
in Japan remains a distant dream.
Ozawa dropped the political bombshell on Sunday after a meeting with Prime
Minister Yasuo Fukuda late last week in which the two leaders raised the
prospect of a "grand coalition" that would consist of the LDP and its current
coalition partner, the Komeito, and the DPJ - a scenario raised in the past by
some commentators including the largest-circulated Japanese newspaper the
Yomiuri Shinbun, but one which very few thought the leader of the DPJ would
seriously consider.
However, given Ozawa's and his party commitment to voters at the Upper House
elections in July that the DPJ would offer an alternative to the ruling LDP
with some distinct policy goals, such as those on pension reforms, it was
naturally expected that Ozawa would immediately reject any such proposal.
Instead he preferred to go back to his party room for consultation with senior
leaders, but as was expected other party executives refused to consider forging
such a coalition.
That Ozawa took the proposal back to the party room makes it abundantly clear
that he was in favor of this coalition formation. Considering the rejection as
the same as being tantamount to a no-confidence vote by party executives, Ozawa
offered to resign as president.
The proposal of a grand coalition surfaced after the DPJ's insistence for
several months that it would not support renewal of the anti-terror law
allowing Japan's Self Defense Forces (SDF) to provide logistic support to the
coalition forces in the Indian Ocean engaged in the "war against terror" in
Afghanistan. Due to the lack of support of the opposition party, the law
expired at the end of October and Japanese Maritime SDF ships have since
returned to Japan after serving several years in the region.
The Japanese government faces immense pressure externally, mainly from the US,
to continue its refueling mission and other activities in the Indian Ocean.
Fukuda is scheduled to visit the US next week where he is expected to discuss
with President George W Bush prospects for a resumption of Japan's naval
mission to support US-led military operations in Afghanistan. He would have
ideally liked to have resolved the issue before his departure on November 15.
For him a grand coalition could have been a way out of the current impasse.
While the world is watching whether or not Japan renews the anti-terror law and
if Maritime SDF ships are redeployed in the Indian Ocean, from a domestic
perspective Ozawa's recent action has once again raised a big question about
the DPJ's sincerity to run in the next Lower House elections (not due until
2009) as a party capable of challenging the LDP and change Japanese politics -
a prospect many regarded was possible after the DPJ's stunning electoral
victory at the July Upper House polls.
It's not the first time that Japan's opposition parties have been careless. In
1989-1990 when the Japan Socialist Party (JSP)under Takako Doi performed so
well at the parliamentary elections, prospects for a "regime change" led by the
JSP were clearly present. But the party's fortune suffered heavy reverses in
the 1993 general elections and its coalition with the LDP in 1995 proved to be
the final nail in its coffin.
At the 1993 general elections, opposition forces were able to defeat the LDP
for the first time since 1955 and formed a government under Morihiro Hosokawa.
But due to an internal power struggle the Hosokawa government did not last long
and ultimately a LDP-led government was formed even though it meant a
short-lived coalition with the Socialist Party with its leader Tomiichi
Murayama as prime minister.
Even with such recent strategic blunders and their disastrous impacts on
parties' fortune, Ozawa's willingness to form a coalition with the LDP is
difficult to explain. Politically it was plain stupidity and strategically a
senseless act. But given Ozawa's political history, nothing seems unexpected of
him. His nickname these days is "Ozawa the destroyer".
Before he broke away from the LDP in 1993, he was an LDP political heavyweight
who served as the party's secretary general and was highly influential. When he
published his book Blueprint for a New Japan: The Rethinking of a Nation
in the early 1990s, international eyes focused on him as the most powerful
leader in Japanese politics.
Ozawa's departure from the LDP in 1993 bruised the party severely, as he
masterminded an anti-LDP government in 1993. While he has led many political
parties since 1993 before he merged his Liberal Party with the DPJ and finally
became the DPJ's president last year, Ozawa has not been able to take the prime
ministerial position to which he aspires. By stitching a deal with the LDP,
perhaps Ozawa was hoping to take the deputy prime ministerial position and then
the ultimate political prize at the next opportune moment.
Since that prospect faded quickly, Ozawa waited for the DPJ's executives to
make a decision about his resignation letter. The executive members such as
Naoto Kan and Yukio Hatoyama through Ozawa's long-time friend and mentor Kozo
Watanabe pleaded and begged him to return to the party presidential position
and Ozawa obliged.
How long Ozawa will continue in his position is anyone's guess. What is certain
is that his action has tarnished the DPJ's image badly and questions will arise
in people's mind whether or not to trust the DPJ as a viable alternative to the
LDP. How voters will feel by the next general election is hard to tell right
now. But with Ozawa's three-day drama, Japan's party politics has once again
entered uncertain territory.
Purnendra Jain is a professor of Asian studies at Australia's Adelaide
University.
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