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2 Testing time for Japan's US
ties By Hisane Masaki
the Pacific often trumpeting them
as being in "best-ever" shape.
But now
Japan and the US face various pending issues,
which, many pundits say, could hurt mutual trust
and even begin to weaken the foundation of the
bilateral alliance.
Among those issues are
the possible removal by Washington of North Korea
from its list of terrorism-sponsoring countries, despite
the
lack of progress on the issue of Pyongyang's past
abductions of Japanese citizens, as well as the
Self-Defense Forces' refueling mission in the
Indian Ocean.
Tokyo and Washington have to
resolve their differences over Japan's proposal to
cut the so-called sympathy budget - Japan's share
of costs for stationing US military forces on its
soil. The two countries also have yet to make
progress on the realignment plan for American
military bases and forces stationed in Japan,
which was agreed on in May last year.
Also
on the economic front, the two countries have yet
to resolve a dispute over easing Japan's strict
conditions for importing US beef.
Under
staunchly pro-US prime minister Junichiro Koizumi,
Japan significantly stretched the boundaries of
the post-war pacifist constitution by taking such
controversial steps as supporting US operations in
Afghanistan and also deploying non-combat troops
to Iraq, the first such mission to a combat zone
after World War II.
Koizumi's immediate
successor, Abe, also tried to stretch the
constitutional boundaries further to beef up
Japan-US security relations. Advocating a more
assertive foreign policy and a greater military
role on the global stage, Abe even made revising
the supreme law a top priority. The constitution
has imposed strict restrictions on Japan's
military activities abroad.
Dovish Prime
Minister Fukuda has advocated the importance of an
Asian diplomacy and remains cautious about further
loosening constitutional constraints on Japanese
military activities abroad. Still, Fukuda has also
joined his predecessors in stressing that the
Japan-US alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's
diplomacy.
Fukuda said on Monday, "I chose
the United States as the first country to visit
because our relationship with the United States is
very deep and broad in scope, and Japan also has
problems involving security."
Chief
cabinet secretary Nobutaka Machimura said on
Monday that in his talks with Bush, Fukuda is
expected to reaffirm the Japan-US alliance and his
wish to further enhance it, as well as to express
his intention of making the alliance and Japan's
Asian diplomacy resonate with each other.
After returning from the US visit on
Saturday, Fukuda will leave on November 19 for a
three-day trip to Singapore to attend the East
Asia Summit and other meetings related to the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN),
said Machimura, the top government spokesman.
The summit of the 10-member ASEAN plus
Japan, China and South Korea, or ASEAN Plus Three
as the nations are collectively referred to, is
scheduled for November 20 and the East Asia
Summit, which also involves Australia, New Zealand
and India, is set for the following day in
Singapore. Fukuda is also expected to hold
trilateral summit talks with Chinese and South
Korean leaders there.
Shift in the wind
After the House of Councilors election in
July, the DPJ, which became the largest party in
that chamber, gained the upper hand in Diet
business. But the political tide has apparently
begun to turn against the party recently. The DPJ
has shot itself in the foot. DPJ leader Ozawa
submitted his resignation on November 4, saying he
felt he no longer had the backing of party
executives when they immediately opposed the idea
of entering a grand coalition with the ruling
camp. The idea of a grand coalition had come up
during his meeting with Fukuda, held two days
earlier. Fukuda, who concurrently serves as LDP
president, has strongly called for dialogue with
the DPJ on key policy issues.
Ozawa
officially retracted his resignation on November 7
and returned to his and the DPJ's long-standing
stance of confronting the ruling camp. "We won't
think about a coalition," he said. But the fuss
over his flip-flops has left deep scars within the
party. Opinion polls show a majority of Japanese
object to the idea of a grand coalition between
the LDP and the DPJ.
The idea of a grand
coalition does not seem to be dead, however. It
could be revived if the DPJ-led opposition fails
to wrest control of the Lower House in the next
general election, resulting in the continuation of
the divided Diet. Even combative DPJ secretary
general Yukio Hatoyama did not rule out such a
possibility last Thursday.
It has been
widely believed that if the government's new
anti-terrorism bill was sent back to the House of
Representatives and enacted in the second vote
there, the DPJ-led opposition camp would submit a
censure motion against Fukuda in the
opposition-dominated House of Councilors to
pressure him to dissolve the House of
Representatives for a general election.
Some coalition officials now believe,
however, that the DPJ, still reeling from the
recent intra-party imbroglio, would not submit a
censure motion in the opposition-dominated House
of Councilors against Fukuda because such a move
could lead to an early dissolution of the House of
Representatives for a snap election. The DPJ is
hardly in a position to prepare for a Lower House
election, analysts say.
Some DPJ officials
have also said that Fukuda could dissolve the
House of Representatives as early as mid-December
for an election in January to take advantage of
the recent blow to the DPJ.
In an apparent
challenge to the DPJ, LDP secretary general Bunmei
Ibuki indicated on Sunday that Fukuda may dissolve
the powerful Lower House for a general election if
the opposition-dominated Upper House approves a
censure motion against the premier or if the DPJ
resorts to tactics to delay deliberations in an
attempt to block passage of the new anti-terrorism
bill in the current Diet session.
DPJ
secretary general Hatoyama said that although the
party has not yet completed preparations for a
general election, it is ready to take on the
challenge. "We have no intention of backing away
[from this fight]," Hatoyama said on Sunday. "We
will accept the challenge [from the ruling camp]."
Machimura, meanwhile, denied that a
dissolution and election is likely any time soon.
"We will have to pass the special bill on
anti-terrorism measures during the current Diet
session and pass the fiscal 2008 budget by the end
of March [during the ordinary Diet session], while
we will also host the Group of Eight Hokkaido
Toyako summit next year," Machimura said on
Sunday. "We have no time to think about a
dissolution."
In an opinion poll published
on Tuesday by the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's largest
national daily, 51% of those polled supported the
continued refueling mission in the Indian Ocean,
while 40% objected to it. The survey also showed
that 49% supported the government's new
anti-terrorism bill, against 39% who opposed it.
Hisane Masaki is a Tokyo-based
journalist, commentator and scholar on
international politics and economy. Masaki's email
address is yiu45535@nifty.com)
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