Page 2 of
2 Japan
starts Kyoto climate drive - in
reverse By Hisane
Masaki
program every six months - in June
and December. In fiscal 2009, the government will
conduct a comprehensive evaluation of estimates
for GHG emissions during the Kyoto Protocol's
five-year commitment period.
On the issue
of whether to introduce an environment tax, levied
primarily on such fossil fuels as oil and coal,
and a mandatory emissions trading system, which is
already in place in the European Union (EU) and is
regarded by some as highly effective in reducing
emissions, the revised Kyoto program states that
they are "issues that should be considered as soon
as possible".
Although government
officials say the Kyoto goal is now "within reach"
thanks to the additional measures stipulated in
the revised
program, many critics say
the government is too optimistic. The government
could be forced to change the program again to
take further emission reduction measures or
increase emission credit purchases from abroad,
due to a possible lack of progress in cutting
emissions.
Environment Minister Ichiro
Kamoshita has repeatedly said that if Japan fails
to make sufficient progress toward the Kyoto goal,
various new administrative measures will become
necessary, including the introduction of a
mandatory emissions trading system.
The
Japanese government only recently began to
consider the possible introduction of a mandatory
emissions trading system in earnest, after METI
and the Japan Business Federation (Nippon
Keidanren) dropped their vehement oppositions.
METI has said that any mandatory emissions trading
system does not need to be introduced during the
Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period of
2008-2012.
Government in disarray
METI and the Environment Ministry are also
locking horns publicly over how much Japan can
reduce GHG emissions by 2020 to fight global
warming. The verbal sparring between the two key
government ministries in charge of Japan's
anti-climate change efforts broke out after METI
released a new long-term energy demand and supply
outlook on March 19.
In the energy
outlook, METI estimated that Japan's GHG emissions
will total 1.214 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent in
fiscal 2020, down 11% from 1.359 billion tonnes in
fiscal 2005, which ended in March 2006, if
companies and households make "maximum" energy
conservation efforts, including the introduction
of state-of-the-art products and technologies.
Japan has proposed an international goal
of halving global GHG emissions by 2050 from the
current level. But the country has yet to set a
medium-term numerical target for reducing its own
GHG emissions. The METI estimates have drawn much
attention as they are expected to serve as a basis
for Japan to set such a medium-term target.
At a regular press conference held two
days after the METI estimates were released,
Environment Minister Kamoshita criticized them,
saying they "could cause a misunderstanding among
foreign countries that Japan is reluctant to
address environmental problems".
The
Environment Ministry believes that more GHG
emissions can - and must - be cut by 2020 through
various emission reduction efforts, including a
drastic review of Japanese people's life and
business styles and the introduction of such new
policy measures as a mandatory emissions trading
system and an environment tax.
At a
regular press conference held only a few hours
after the METI estimates were released, the
Environment Ministry's administrative vice
minister Yoshio Tamura said that he thinks Japan
will set a medium-term national emission reduction
target, "taking into account various factors,
including policy instruments". Under the Kyoto
Protocol, Japan is obliged to cut its annual GHG
emissions by 6% on average between 2008 and 2012
from the 1990 level. But the METI-estimated
emission amount of 1.214 billion tonnes in fiscal
2020 is only 4% below the fiscal 1990 emission
amount of 1.261 billion tonnes.
According
to a pessimistic estimate by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United
Nations' Nobel Peace Prize-winning network of
scientists, industrial nations need to reduce
their GHG emissions by 25% to 40% below 1990
levels by 2020.
The EU has set a target of
cutting its GHG emissions by 20% by 2020, compared
with the 1990 emission level. The EU and China are
also demanding that developed countries agree to
cut their emissions by at least 20% by 2020 from
1990 in a post-Kyoto international regime.
At a regular press conference held three
days after Kamoshita criticized the METI
estimates, METI's administrative vice minister,
Takao Kitabata, countered that "on the whole, it
[METI's estimated fiscal 2020 emission level] is a
goal that can only be reached by clearing a fairly
high hurdle".
About 190 countries agreed
at United Nations-sponsored talks in Bali,
Indonesia last December to launch two-year
negotiations on a replacement for the Kyoto
Protocol, which legally requires only rich nations
to slash emissions by an average of 5% between
2008 and 2012 from 1990 levels.
Japan has
rejected the idea of keeping 1990 as the base year
for emission cuts under a post-Kyoto climate pact,
saying it was unfair to Japanese industry, which
had made strenuous efforts to enhance energy
efficiency in the 1970s and 1980s. Japan has
claimed that the 1990 base year is advantageous to
Europe as some current EU nations were then
heavily polluting members of the Soviet bloc.
Japan also believes that changing the base
year from 1990 to a much later year would lower
hurdles for fast-growing developing countries,
such as China and India, which have no emission
reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and
whose emissions began to shoot up in the 1990s.
Although Japan has not yet formally
proposed any new specific base year for
calculating emission cuts, Kitabata, the top METI
bureaucrat, said that he thinks 2005 would be a
"fairer" base year than 1990.
Kitabata
said that the Japanese industry is now the world's
most energy efficient and that Japanese people
have also made at least as much energy-saving
efforts as their counterparts in the United States
and Europe. It is "self-degrading" to argue that
Japan is not serious about addressing global
warming, he said.
Under the current
Japanese government plan, the 3.8% portion of the
targeted 6% GHG emission reduction under the Kyoto
Protocol is to be achieved by carbon "sink"
plantation projects at home and the 1.6% portion
is to be achieved by government acquisitions of
emission credits from abroad. The remaining 0.6%
portion is to be achieved by domestic emission
reduction efforts by companies and households.
METI's Kitabata pointed out that the
METI-estimated GHG emission level in fiscal 2020,
which is down 11% from the fiscal 2005 level, has
been calculated, excluding emission cuts made
through sink projects and emission credit
purchases from foreign countries.
Kitabata
noted that the EU's target emission level in 2020,
which is 20% lower than in 1990, is down 14%
compared with the 2005 level. If the EU target
actually includes forest absorption of CO2 and if
Japan is permitted again to achieve a 3.8%
emission reduction through forest absorption, the
METI-estimated fiscal 2020 Japanese emission level
will represent a reduction of over 14% from the
fiscal 2005 level, matching the EU target, he
said.
Therefore, the METI estimates for
fiscal 2020 Japanese emissions "should be rated
highly", he said.
Hisane Masaki
is a Tokyo-based journalist, commentator and
scholar on international politics and economy.
Masaki's email address is yiu45535@nifty.com
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