Delayed Japan poll a double-edged sword
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - While the global financial crisis could turn out to be a saviour for
lackluster Prime Minister Taro Aso, it also has the potential to bring him
down.
Faced with what former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan called a
"once-in-a-century credit tsunami'' and a worldwide slowdown that are squeezing
the Japanese economy, Aso is issuing a series of emergency economic stimulus
policies. These include a 2 trillion yen (US$20.3 billion) tax cut in the form
of tax rebates and cash payments.
Since taking office in September, he has postponed a snap election, a
potentially fatal showdown that could change the
governing party from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to the main opposition
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). He has done this to cope with the faltering
economy and perhaps make a last-ditch effort to regain his party's strength.
Aso may be gaining ground over the DPJ as the latest polls show more than half
of voters view an early Lower House election as unnecessary amid concerns over
the global banking crisis. This gives the LDP more time to boost support.
On the other hand, the delaying tactics could backfire. Voters might turn
against him, saying that he needs to seek the public's legitimate support
through Lower House elections if he is to come up with drastic steps that will
put the economy back on the right track. This is because he assumed the post of
prime minister through a revolving door after two premiers resigned in less
than a year.
Asked by reporters if he would hold off on elections, Aso said this week:
"Policies should come before politics. That's the answer."
About a month ago, the ruling LDP-New Komeito coalition chose Aso as the front
man for a snap election that was originally expected to be held as early as
late this month. Aso at first apparently wanted to rush to the polls to
capitalize on any honeymoon support.
Aso wrote in an essay published this month in the Bungei Shunju magazine, "I
have made a decision ... At the beginning of the Diet [parliament] session, I
will, without hesitation, present the policies of myself and the Liberal
Democratic Party to President [Ichiro] Ozawa and ask him whether he will
support them or not. Then I will ask the public whether they will trust me."
This original strategy, however, changed. Although many LDP members looked to
his popularity with the public and his expansionary fiscal policy to prime the
economic pump, an always great appeal before and during any elections, Aso's
popular support remained at about 50% or less in various opinion polls, below
even the rate of his unpopular predecessor, Yasuo Fukuda, at the time of his
administration's inauguration last year. The support rate for the Aso cabinet
sank to 41% in the latest survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun, slightly down
from 42% in an October 11-12 survey.
The plunging stock market and the rapid rise of the Japanese currency, a
vicious spiral caused by risk reduction among investors, also urged the Aso
administration to quickly adopt a Keynesian-style fiscal expansionary policy
with increased public investment and tax reductions, delaying the snap
election.
"Emergency economic measures are just a surface reason to delay the election,"
Chuichi Date, a LDP Upper House member, who currently serves as the party's
deputy secretary general, told Asia Times Online. "Our internal survey findings
show we cannot win the election if it is held now. But when the financial
crisis continues to be as grave as it is now, there is no guarantee we can win,
even if we delay the election later on. The prime minister's popularity may
continue to [drop] for the rest of the year.”
Delaying elections is becoming a big financial problem for LDP candidates
nationwide, Date also said. Candidates have already established campaign
headquarters by renting parking lots and employing part-time workers, which
costs millions of yen every day for every candidate, he said.
"Political donations being made by companies and individuals are decreasing as
the nation faces a formidable economic downturn," Date said. "We are letting
out a yell due to lack of money."
The financial crisis, meanwhile, also has weakened the hands of the opposition
parties, such as the DPJ. Although some opposition officials have criticized
Aso for holding the economy and the people's daily lives hostage simply to
prolong the life of his administration, many cannot strongly attack the Aso
administration's policies. If they did, the general public may view the
opposition as preventing any emergency measures to deal with the financial
turmoil.
According to a survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun on Saturday and Sunday,
57% said the Lower House did not have to be dissolved soon for a snap election,
while only 33% said it should be.
The next national election is historically significant because it could change
the ruling party. This would be a major power shift from Japan's more than 50
years of de facto one-party rule.
In the United States, the economic turmoil added momentum for US Democratic
presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama and has proved a roadblock for his
Republican rival, Senator John McCain. In Japan, the economic crisis could
influence a change of government.
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a
freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.
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