Page 1 of 2 Japan's next chapter in space begins
By Peter J Brown
Japan's soon-to-be prime minister Yukio Hatoyama, leader of the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ), has a lot of space-related issues to deal with over the
coming months, though North Korea and domestic affairs - including the economy
and government bureaucracy - will likely dominate his first few months in
office.
Over the coming months, details surrounding a restructuring of the Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) will be announced, and government support
for private sector space companies in Japan will likely grow, albeit modestly.
Due to his involvement in a recent review of Japan's future space options from
a scientific and technological standpoint, Hatoyama has a good grasp of
space-related issues as well as the state of Japanese space technology in
general.
Japan sees China's activities in space as a significant, but not
urgent, matter.
"We view China as a growing military power in the region. But there is no
immediate military threat from China," said Dr Kazuto Suzuki, an associate
professor of International Political Economy at Hokkaido University's School of
Public Policy.
Japan's new Basic Law for Space Activities or simply Basic Space Law (BSL)
passed the Diet (parliament) in 2008, and in mid-2009, a new Basic Space Plan
was completed. As a result, Japan's government is now able to fund military
space activities, ending a ban on such activities that lasted 40 years. Japan's
small fleet of Information Gathering Satellites (IGS) was allowed during this
time because they were not funded or operated by Japan's Ministry of Defense
(MoD), according to Suzuki. All IGS operations are overseen by the civilian
Cabinet Secretariat, which includes Japan's central intelligence office.
In the past few days, North Korea cut short Hatoyama's and the DPJ's victory
celebrations with its sobering declaration about the status of its uranium
enrichment program. However, the overall space strategy of the Japanese
military is really not affected, according to Suzuki.
"The situation will not translate immediately into any sort of rapid military
use of space by Japan," said Suzuki. "Space is not seen as a viable military
zone by the DPJ and by most Japanese people [who] prefer that space should
remain as a civilian domain where international cooperation is promoted and
strengthened."
Among other things, the MoD has been slowly developing new sensors for an early
warning satellite with a completion date for this project within five years.
"Even if we obtain these sensors earlier than expected, we have no satellite to
put these sensors on," said Suzuki. "Development of these sensors for military
use will proceed, but this North Korean issue will not have a strong impact on
the outcome."
Because the DPJ lacks a majority in the Upper House of the Diet, a coalition
must be formed with the Social Democrats, who strongly oppose any military uses
of space. This relationship also slows military space initiatives at a time
when the MoD is mapping out its military space objectives, and finishing work
on new defense guidelines covering the next five years.
"These guidelines have not been published yet," said Suzuki. "While the DPJ may
not be enthusiastic about military space due to the coalition, no matter who
will be in power, there will be a change from the past."
When Hatoyama meets with President Barack Obama later this month, ballistic
missile defense planning and coordination will be on the agenda. A status check
of the International Space Station (ISS) is also likely. Other space-related
issues may have to wait, especially as the Barack Obama administration is
apparently in no hurry to revise export controls which the United States
satellite industry favors in order to increase satellite-related exports.
Chinese launch vehicles will remain off limits - there appear to be no plans
for Chinese rockets to launch satellites for Japan anyway - whether US
components on the US Munitions List and currently subject to US International
Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) are present or not.
"During the meeting, ITAR issues may be discussed, but only in a context of the
broader topic of nuclear disarmament," said Suzuki. "The launching of Japanese
satellites by Chinese launchers will never be on the agenda, because Japan has
its own launch vehicles, and has no intention of launching its satellites on
Chinese launchers."
As for Hatoyama's recent statements about the need for Japan to concentrate on
establishing closer regional ties, Chu Ishida, director of JAXA's space
cooperation office for Asia Pacific Region, Space Applications Mission
Directorate, said a few months ago that, "Japan's Basic Space Plan defines the
promotion of space diplomacy as a national policy. Under this policy, JAXA will
develop and utilize space systems and satellites, and develop deeper
cooperation among Asian countries."
Although Japan is not one of the nine state signatories to the Asia-Pacific
Space Cooperation Organization (APSCO) convention which China created a few
years ago, Japan does send representatives to APSCO sessions. And China belongs
to the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum (APRSAF) which was established
more than 15 years ago with Japan as its principal sponsor. These regional
space organizations co-exist, and should not be seen as competing with each
other, according to Suzuki.
"APSCO and APRSAF are completely different organizations in terms of
membership, objectives, and the means of cooperation. APRSAF is a space agency
forum which supports various projects," said Suzuki. "APSCO, on the other hand,
is an organization for transferring technology. China's Ministry of Foreign
Affairs took advantage of China's prowess in space technology to help establish
its diplomatic leadership in the Asian region. APSCO membership is limited to
states or countries such as Iran and Pakistan in particular which find it
difficult to access advanced space technology due to sanctions."
Countries in Asia that operate their own earth observation (EO) satellites
include Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, India and Thailand. According to
Suzuki, because the number of analysts in Asia who can process EO satellite
data is so limited, both APSCO and APRSAF primarily focus on providing Chinese
and Japanese EO data to their member states.
"There is an obvious rivalry here. However, for the respective member states,
this dual leadership is beneficial because more EO data flows more quickly
whenever major disasters happen in the region in particular," said Suzuki. "As
long as China and Japan control which EO data should be distributed, there will
not be any problems in terms of deliberate military uses."
Japan has also been providing EO data directly to China for over three decades.
Suzuki emphasizes that this cooperation involves data, and may expand slowly to
include space science. However, no joint development of space technology is
anticipated.
As for India and the Indian Space Research Organization, it is unlikely that
the DPJ is going to place more emphasis on space cooperation beyond the
civilian and scientific projects currently underway, according to Suzuki,
despite the signing last October of a "Joint declaration on Security
Cooperation between India and Japan" by Prime Minister Singh of India, and
outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso.
"The DPJ is the new kid in town, and they have to sort out so many issues
including much bigger issues such as Japan's relationship with the US, China,
South and North Korea, and Russia," said Suzuki. "India is much lower in
priority."
According to Professor Setsuko Aoki of Keio University's Faculty of Policy
Management, while the DPJ might endorse a possible space cooperation agreement
with India, "there is the thorny nuclear issue and most pro-disarmament MPs in
the Diet have mixed feelings towards India, even after the Nuclear Suppliers
Group's historic decision last year."
"Anti-nuclear feeling is very strong in Japan. When it comes to any proposed
space cooperation with India, the prior Japanese government was probably more
willing to support such an arrangement than the DPJ is today," said Aoki.
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