Japan
sets sights on Pyongyang's launch By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - As North
Korea ramps up preparations for its planned
mid-April launch of an "earth-observation
satellite", Japan, South Korea and the United
States are rushing to prepare weapons that could
shoot it down.
The Japanese government is
deploying warships and a missile shield to destroy
any long-range missile that threatens its
territory. "We must take all possible measures to
protect Japanese lives and property," Defense
Minister Naoki Tanaka said in response to North
Korean missile launch plans, at the Ministry of
Defense initiation ceremony on April 2.
To
activate Japan's missile defense system and
intercept the missile or any debris from it, the
minister has ordered the Self-Defense Forces (SDF)
to deploy land-based PAC-3 interceptors
to a total of seven
locations in the Tokyo metropolitan area as well
as on the Okinawa, Ishigaki and Miyako islands in
southwestern Japan.
In addition, three
Kongo-class Aegis-equipped destroyers fitted with
Standard SM-3 Block IA missiles, namely,
Chokai, Kirishima and Myoko,
are being deployed to the East China Sea and the
Sea of Japan to track the launch.
"Although some people say Japan is
overreacting this time, I do not think so,"
Japanese military analyst Toshiyuki Shikata told
Asia Times Online. "It would be too late once the
damage is done. It's normal counter-measures as a
nation."
Hideshi Takesada, a professor of
international relations at South Korea's Yonsei
University, takes a similar view: "Compared with
Seoul's counter-measures, Japan is not
overreacting. There is not much difference between
the two nations."
With the assistance of
the US Forces Korea, the South Korean government
also plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket
should it veer off course, causing the first stage
booster to fall on its territory.
"Looking
back at history, one Chinese rocket strayed off
course, causing hundreds of casualties," said
Takesada, a former executive director of the
National Institute for Defense Studies in Tokyo,
the Japanese Ministry of Defense's think-tank. In
1996, a Long March 3 rocket flew off course and
crashed into a village, with estimates of deaths
reaching over 100.
"It's necessary to
expend all possible means to protect the lives and
property of the people from a missile or any
falling objects," said Takesada.
Pyongyang
announced on March 16 that it would launch an
Unha-3 rocket carrying an earth-observation
satellite called Kwangmyongsong-3 between April 12
and 16, dates that coincide with celebrations for
the 100th anniversary of the birth of founding
father Kim Il-sung.
North Korea claims the
impending launch is of a satellite launch vehicle
(SLV) as opposed to a ballistic missile, as it
claimed during a similar test in April 2009. But
they are effectively the same technology. Even the
launch of an SLV would strengthen North Korea's
ballistic missile capabilities.
US-Japan military
rehearsal Another reason Japan and the US
Forces Japan (USFJ) are taking North Korea's
launch plan so seriously is that this presents a
golden opportunity to simulate a missile attack
from China. For the US and Japan, the preparation
for the North's upcoming rocket launch are as good
as joint exercises against a mock Chinese assault.
Those Chinese missiles that would be used
in such an attack include its solid-fuelled
intermediate-range ballistic missiles and the Dong
Feng (DF)-21 family of medium-range ballistic
missiles. The DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile,
known as the "aircraft carrier killer", has caused
serious concern in US intelligence circles as it
would boost Beijing's "anti-access/area denial"
capability in the West Pacific. US officials
believe it could limit the movements of the US
Seventh Fleet region should conflict erupt there.
How to deal with a rising China is the
biggest common interest of the US and Japan.
China's growing naval power and its enhanced
strike capabilities are reshaping the security
dynamic in the region. This has caused the US to
shift its security pivot toward the Asia-Pacific
by expanding its military footprint in Australia,
the Philippines and Singapore. With the Pentagon
well aware of China's "anti-access/area denial"
strategy and focused on the so-called AirSea
battle concept, it aims to move US Marines
currently stationed on Japan's Okinawa Island to
other areas out of from China's missile strike
range.
Japan, meanwhile, has also been
strengthening security around the Nansei
(Southwestern) Islands in Okinawa Prefecture by
adopting a new concept called "Dynamic Defense
Force" - a move that is apparently aimed at
countering China's growing activities in the East
China Sea. Under this new guideline, Tokyo aims to
enhance the SDF presence in those islands.
"China cannot voice objections to an
integrated US-Japan ballistic missile defense
capability this time, as long as North Korea is a
cause of the problem," Shikata, a professor at
Teikyo University in Tokyo and retired lieutenant
general of the Japanese Ground Self-Defense
Forces. "North Korea's missile launch provides the
US and Japan a good opportunity to go through a
rehearsal against China's missile."
Closer integration of US and Japanese
forces A recent move to integrate the
Japan Air Self-Defense Force's main command with
the US Yokota Air Base, which is home to USFJ
headquarters and the US 5th Air Force, suggest an
increase in bilateral military cooperation is
planned.
The move is part of a 2006
agreement on the realignment of USFJ. The new
command center could soon have its first test if
Pyongyang goes ahead with its planned satellite
launch in mid-April. The center is expected to
instruct Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF)
destroyers equipped with the Aegis system and the
PAC-3 air Defense missile interceptor units.
The JMSDF has also already relocated its
command centre to Yokosuka Naval Base: also home
to the US Navy's 7th Fleet. The Japan Ground
Self-Defense Force's Central Readiness Force,
which is currently based at Camp Asaka in Saitama
Prefecture, is also scheduled to move to Camp
Zama, the home of US Army Japan, in March 2013.
These moves are highly likely to strengthen the
two nations' defense collaboration further against
China and North Korea.
North Korea on
March 27 reaffirmed its plan to launch a
"satellite" despite the mounting international
pressure. Experts expect this will be a serious
blow to recent diplomatic recent progress between
the North and the US. In response to Pyongyang's
planned "satellite" launch, the US has suspended
food aid to Pyongyang, saying it has broken the
terms of a February 29 agreement to halt its
nuclear activities.
Similarly in May 2008,
the US announced it would resume food assistance
to North Korea. But just a few months later
Pyongyang refused to receive the US food
assistance and kicked out American
non-governmental organizations. This was followed
by a missile launch in April 2009 and a second
nuclear test in May 2009.
The US can share
part of the blame for today's confusion concerning
North Korea. The Barack Obama administration seems
to have rushed towards negotiations with
Pyongyang, eager for a foreign-policy success
ahead of November's presidential election. Obama
also likely believed he could take advantage of
the leadership change following Dear Leader Kim
Jong-il's death last December. President Bill
Clinton tried to do the same in the wake of Kim
Il-sung's death in 1994, but the subsequent
agreements collapsed.
"The US was fooled
again by Pyongyang," Shikata said. "It will
maintain a cautious distance from North Korea from
now on."
"The Obama administration
underestimated North Korea," added Takesada. "It
was put to shame in public."
Kosuke
Takahashi is a Tokyo-based Japanese
journalist. Besides Asia Times Online, he also
writes for Jane's Defence Weekly as Tokyo
correspondent. His twitter is @TakahashiKosuke
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