Russia
and Japan try again for
rapprochement By Stephen Blank
For several months, although Russia has
insulted Japan by strengthening its claims to the
Kurile Islands and even reinforcing them
militarily, Moscow and Tokyo have been trying to
initiate a new rapprochement. Despite the missteps
over disputed territory, there are several factors
that make such a renewal of friendly relations
likely.
First, China's overweening
pressure on Japan since 2010 may certainly be
driving Tokyo to look for new support,
particularly as Russia is regarded as one of the
countries with a large supply of rare earth
minerals, which China has attempted to block Japan
from buying. Second, China's growing propensity to
attempt to intimidate its neighbors over maritime
boundaries and other issues has drawn quiet but
visible Russian resistance in
Southeast Asia, and Moscow
certainly would not view a Sino-Japanese clash
with equanimity.
Third, Russian elites
still believe that Japan and Russia are
complementary economies and that Japan seeks
greater access to Russian energy despite Russia's
terrible commercial record as well as the Kurile
Islands obstacle. The strong demand for Russian
energy that Moscow imputes to Tokyo is only
partially true. However, Russia realizes it must
sell energy to multiple Asian partners, not just
China, to be taken seriously in its high-priority
quest for great power status in Asia.
Accordingly both sides have indicated
their desire to negotiate on outstanding issues.
Most recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov stated that Russia was prepared to discuss
a peace treaty with Japan on the basis of the UN
charter. Lavrov also simultaneously indicated
Russia's willingness to discuss "any matters" that
are of interest to Japan - ie the Kurile Islands
and China - and to seek an agreement on the
disputed islands that is mutually acceptable.
At the recent Asia-Pacific Economic
Cooperation (APEC) forum summit in Vladivostok,
Japan and Russia signed a series of agreements as
part of a meeting between Prime Minister Noda
Yoshihiko and President Vladimir Putin. These
accords deal with fish and seafood poaching in
territorial waters, a locally important issue; a
memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Gazprom
and Japan's Ministry for Natural Resources and
Energy; as well as a contract to build a large
timber complex in the Krasnoyarsk area.
The biggest economic issue where agreement
could be reached regards the provision of Russian
gas to Japan. Moscow has large-scale ambitions to
provide gas to several of its Asian neighbors, but
those plans have remained suspended due to
long-standing differences with China and the
difficulties surrounding the realization of
Moscow's long-held dream of a Trans-Korean gas
pipeline.
That leaves Japan as the only
major Asian player with whom progress might be
possible in the immediate future. The MoU signed
by Gazprom and Japan's Ministry of Natural
Resources and Energy appears to create a situation
where Japan could participate in the construction
of a natural gas liquefaction plant in
Vladivostok.
While that could add to
Japan's receipt of more liquefied natural gas
(LNG) from Russia beyond what it already gets from
Sakhalin, it would also greatly increase Russia's
capability to compete in the global gas market.
For Russia, the Gazprom-led Eastern Gas Program -
of which LNG production is an important element -
is vital to its larger goal of becoming a major
energy provider to East Asia and concurrently a
major Asian power in its own right.
Furthermore acceptance of such Japanese
help is part of the larger program of
"modernization partnerships." Russia hopes to
solicit foreign investment in areas such as the
Russian Far East from countries including Japan to
achieve Moscow's geopolitical goals. Russian
officials do not hide that they seek Japanese
investment, as Moscow certainly would not like to
be left dependent on exclusively Chinese
investment in its Asian provinces and energy
facilities - hence the discussions about
investment projects that took place at the APEC
summit with Tokyo. At the same time, Japan does
not want China, which would like to obtain
reliable sources of energy in general and LNG in
particular, to have unconstrained access to the
Russian Far East.
Thus Japan, too, has
proposed energy and investment initiatives with
Russia. Specifically it has revived the idea of
inviting Gazprom to take part in a project to
build a gas pipeline from southern Sakhalin to
Japan's east coast. The pipeline would run from
Prigorodnye on Sakhalin, across the island of
Hokkaido, and run southward along Japan's east
coast via the prefectures of Aomori, Iwate, Myagi
and Fukushima. It would be 1,300-1,500 kilometers
long and could carry 16-20 billion cubic meters of
gas. Its estimated cost is US$550 million-$700
million.
For Japanese officials, this
proposal is advantageous as this pipeline would
supply non-liquefied gas to Japan, which currently
lacks regasification terminals but where demand
for gas can be guaranteed. And the pipeline can be
integrated with projects like natural gas power
plants. At the same time, Russia would thus gain a
role in gas processing and sales as well as
preferential entry into various other projects.
Japan's investment would be repaid by the tariffs
for pumping gas, and Japanese officials are ready
to begin construction of the pipeline right away.
But Gazprom still believes that the Vladivostok
LNG plant is the main priority.
Thus, for
the moment, despite much talk about rapprochement
and investments, there is as yet nothing tangible
to speak of other than atmospherics. But as time
goes by, and if Chinese pressure on either or both
countries becomes too overbearing, we may yet see
some positive developments either in energy or in
a broader geopolitical settlement between Russia
and Japan.
Dr Stephen Blank is a
professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of
the US Army War College at Carlisle Barracks, PA.
The views expressed here do not represent those of
the US Army, Defense Department, or the US
government.
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