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PYONGYANG WATCH
North Korea's quest for
'normalization'
By Aidan
Foster-Carter
One of my favorite North Korean
quotes goes: "We are normal, just as we have always
been." I forget now what particular act of eccentricity
or worse Pyongyang was, as ever, defiantly defending.
The tone is characteristic. For despite the license
afforded by the juche philosophy of doing
pretty much as they darn well please, and an obstinate
refusal to follow most global trends, it must get
galling to be mocked as the world's odd man out. As when
Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute
characterized North Korea's recent economic reforms (on
which this column has also commented
) as
equivalent to leaving Pluto - and reaching Mars. Planet
Earth is still a ways to go, comrades.
As that
splendid image implies, becoming normal is not an
overnight event but a lengthy process. For much of the
time, a Pyongyang-watcher's life involves mulling
whether minute movements, barely detectable to the naked
eye, constitute real and cumulative change - or whether
it's a case of Lenin's "one step forward, two steps
back". Thus the economic measures are viewed by some as
an attempt to change so as not to change: shoring up the
old system, rather than transforming it. North Korea
itself would rather see it that way: a spokesman
recently described the new steps as "perfecting
socialism". (You mean it wasn't already completely
perfect, despite half a century of omniscient
leadership?)
"Normalization" is also a word used
to refer to some of Pyongyang's recent diplomatic
outreach. Talks with Japan, in particular, tend to be
billed this way: their goal being to normalize
diplomatic relations. Yet all the recent activity on the
foreign-affairs front, welcome as it is, on closer
examination tends to reinforce just how abnormal, in
many senses, North Korea's dealings with the wider world
remain. To make good that claim, we look first at recent
North-South developments. A second article will continue
the theme as regards Pyongyang's relations with the four
powers: the United States, Japan, China and Russia.
With South Korea, historically things are not
all Pyongyang's fault. What could be more abnormal than
a country cut in two for half a century, with the
world's most heavily armed border running like a gash
right across its waist? It was not Koreans who divided
Korea, but the superpowers. Yet once sundered, it has
tended to be Koreans who sustained the division: equally
so, in the past. Today Seoul would like to normalize
ties but, despite the June 2000 summit, Pyongyang blows
endlessly hot and cold.
Currently the summer
breeze is warm, since formal inter-Korean dialogue
resumed in mid-August after a nine-month gap. The
program is full for the next few weeks, including
economic negotiations (August 27-29), a friendly
football match (September 7), tourism talks (September
10-12), women's meetings (September 11-14) and family
reunions (around September 21 for Chusok, the
Korean harvest festival).
All fine and dandy -
if it happens. But we've been here before. Indeed, the
truth is we are no further on now than two years ago,
just after that breakthrough summit. Then, too, a whole
raft of contacts were planned - only for the North to
walk away in early 2001, using George W Bush as a
pretext. Since then it has been on-off, and more off
than on until recently. This year alone, North Korea
agreed to resume talks in April, canceled in May at a
day's notice, sank a Southern patrol boat in June,
expressed regret (not quite an apology) in July and in
August is talking again. Any bets for September, October
and on?
For normal relations, a first step is to
break this stop-go cycle and institutionalize dialogue
as routine. The second step is to make it substantive.
This time, the economic talks - only the second since
the summit - need to tackle the real nitty-gritty: joint
flood prevention, and Hyundai's hoped-for industrial
estate near the Demilitarized Zone at Kaesong. Above
all, to make the latter viable, they must set a date for
military meetings to kickstart the stalled rejoining of
cross-border road and rail links. North Korean leader
Kim Jong-il heard the same message on his recent trip to
Russia from President Vladimir Putin, who - like South
Korean President Kim Dae-jung - dreams of an "iron silk
road" freight route from South Korea to Europe via
Siberia. North Korea is the missing link. So will the
Dear Leader at last take the plunge on this, or will he
continue to equivocate?
Besides sustained and
substantial, a third hallmark of normal ties is to
become cumulative. Take family reunions. There's nothing
remotely normal about yet another one-time embrace for a
favored few. The first time was a breakthrough, but to
keep repeating these desperately limited and painful
encounters is more cruel than kind. Snail's-pace
discussions on a permanent meeting site ignore the key
humanitarian need: to let everyone see his or her kin on
the other side, and soon, before this dwindling elderly
band die off completely. Or at least let them write or
phone. Now that would be more like normalcy.
For
sure, normalization won't happen overnight. As we said,
it's a process. But North Korea is starting awfully
late, so it needs to hurry: and above all, it shouldn't
miss what small window remains with Kim Dae-jung still
president in Seoul. Pyongyang should have learned by now
the price of delay. You dither on cutting a missile deal
with Bill Clinton, and before you know it you've George
W Bush to contend with: back to Square 1.
Kim
Jong-il must get real about getting normal. We'll look
next at how he's doing with other partners.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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