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PYONGYANG WATCH
North Korean outreach: Are we
motoring?
By Aidan Foster-Carter
Events have moved fast since our
last column (North Korea's quest for
"normalization" , August 27). On
Friday, out of the blue, Junichiro Koizumi said he will
visit Pyongyang on September 17: when he does, he will
be the first Japanese prime minister ever to do so. On
the same day, the two Koreas announced a raft of
agreements, including a firm outline timetable to relink
not one but two road/rail corridors across the
Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). An initial road to Hyundai's
Kumgang resort, much cheaper than the present sea route,
could open as early as November. (Whether Typhoon Rusa,
which battered the east coast border area worst of all,
means a postponement is yet to be seen.)
So far,
so hopeful. As ever, the proof of the pudding will be in
the eating. But Koizumi's trip is a bold gamble, given a
decade's stalemate between Japan and North Korea, which
have no formal diplomatic ties. Hitherto they have
talked past one another. Tokyo demands the return of 11
suspected abductees from the 1970s and 1980s; Pyongyang
denies all knowledge. North Korea for its part demands
full apologies and compensation for Japan's harsh
pre-1945 colonial rule over the peninsula; Japan
refuses.
The compensation side is easier to
settle, as there is a precedent. In 1965, when South
Korea recognized Japan - fully 20 years after
liberation, such was Korean bitterness: the first
president of the Republic of Korea (ROK), Syngman Rhee,
refused outright - Tokyo gave or lent a total of US$800
million. At today's prices, Pyongyang could thus pick up
a cool $10 billion or so: worth half a year's national
income, handy in its present economic plight.
But can the Dear Abductor come clean? We know he
personally ordered other kidnappings: notably of a
famous South Korean film director/actress couple, Shin
Sang-ok and Choi Eun-hee, who later escaped. The
Japanese cases seem out of James Bond: courting couples
on a beach whisked off in speedboats to train North
Korean spies to pass for Japanese. One, a student lured
from London, was confirmed by the now tearful ex-Red
Army terrorist who set up the sting. For others,
circumstantial evidence is strong.
Bottom line:
no abductees, no $10 billion. There'd have to be a
face-saver, however implausible. The 11 may be found
mysteriously in China, say. Never mind. If they come
back, anything is possible. If not, nothing is. One has
to wonder if the deal is already done. Otherwise Koizumi
risks seeing his already waning popularity fall further,
if he returns from Pyongyang empty-handed and with egg
on his face.
Three other aspects are worthy of
comment. Going in at the top has to be the right way.
Russian President Vladimir Putin just met Kim Jong-il
for the third time in as many years. Chinese President
Jiang Zemin's score is the same, though at the moment
the People's Republic of China and North Korea seem less
than close - possibly because Beijing and Seoul have
just celebrated a decade of ever closer PRC-ROK ties,
something that still sticks in Pyongyang's craw. By
contrast, the US idea to send someone low-level, if at
all, just doesn't cut it with the Dear Leader.
Second: as the Seoul press has noted, for Japan
to plump for engagement is welcome support for Kim
Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy - and conversely, one in the
eye for US President George W Bush. The timing is neat
too, coming just after a visit to Tokyo and Seoul by
John Bolton, the US undersecretary of state for arms
control and a leading hawk, whose "evil axis" rhetoric
went down like a lead balloon in both capitals. But if
Kim Jong-il humiliates Koizumi, the latter may revert to
the hard line favored by many Japanese.
A less
mentioned point is that this move positions Japan to be
a policy leader on the peninsula. Hitherto Tokyo has
been largely passive, taking its cue on North Korea from
its US and South Korean allies - or fretting if, as
currently, they disagree. Now we'll hear more of Japan's
idea of six-way talks; backed by Russia, which also felt
excluded from earlier confabs involving just the two
Koreas, China and the United States.
As for
those cross-border links, are we motoring at last? One
bad sign is that there's still no date set for key
military talks, essential if work within the DMZ is not
to detonate World War III accidentally. Is the Korean
People's Army (KPA), the world's fourth-largest fighting
force, really ready at last to see the planet's most
heavily armed frontier start to morph from front line to
front door? If it is, then the train really has left the
station, nothing on the peninsula will ever be the same
again, and even an old skeptic like me might be
persuaded to crack open a bottle of bubbly. Nothing too
expensive, mind you.
But if North Korea reverts
to stalling, it will soon face a new president in Seoul
almost certainly less kind than Kim Dae-jung. With that
in mind, despite having left it late, there may still be
a chance of Kim Jong-il at last making his promised
return visit. Word is - albeit firmly denied in Seoul -
that he may show for the opening of the Asian Games in
Busan on September 29, where the North is taking part. A
swift photo-op in the South's second city could be less
risky than a full-dress summit in Seoul.
Then
again, as Korean movie buffs have noted (and the Dear
Leader knows his films), this uncannily echoes the
recent hit thriller Swiri. Just when the leaders
of both Koreas are set to join hands in a Southern
sports stadium, a rogue team of Northern anti-peace
special agents have wired the place to blow them to
bits. I won't give the ending away: go see it, it's
good. Could life imitate art? Hey, it's just a movie.
Isn't it?
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