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PYONGYANG
WATCH
Russia or China? Two trains of
thought
By Aidan Foster-Carter
Talk of trains, and some folks become all
misty-eyed. Or is this trait peculiar to us Brits, for
whom "trainspotter" is a synonym for any sad obsession?
(Ditto "anorak", after this species' typical garb.) But
don't knock it. From such enthusiasm cometh knowledge.
Way back in the 1980s, when the hermit Kimdom
was even more terra incognita than today, one such
choo-choo buff living in Seoul excitedly showed me a
copy of a rare prize indeed: the North Korean railway
timetable. Perusing this revealed surprisingly long
journey times, suggesting slow speeds on single tracks
in dire need of modernization.
Moreover,
trainspotting is one of the few ways of getting into
North Korea. At least from the UK, the odd group (no
offence, chaps) not only visits, but reaches parts no
one else does: chugging down remote branch lines in
pursuit of steam engines long extinct elsewhere. Such
antiquities are worth recalling just now, to prevent
over-excitement. Or at least, let excitement be sober
(is that a contradiction?) and properly targeted. Two
aspects of inter-Korean railways are currently in the
news, and they're connected. I mean the items are
connected. The railways aren't, which is Item 1.
As we've mentioned before, the latest bout of
inter-Korean goodwill, which looks ever more hopeful,
includes a timetable for relinking not one but two rail
and road corridors across the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
One, known as the Gyeongui (Kyongui) line, begun two
years ago but since stalled, starts north of Seoul. The
other, the Donghae (Tonghae) line, would run along the
east coast, on the opposite side of the peninsula.
North Korea seems keen on this new eastern
corridor, despite going slow on the first and more
obvious westerly one. The new one won't be quick, as the
gap is wide: more than 100 kilometers of new track must
be laid. Yet Pyongyang's deputy trade minister, Kim
Yong-sul, said at a seminar in Tokyo on September 3 that
when done this will make Busan - South Korea's second
city and main port - a "logistics stronghold".
Not to be churlish, comrade, but Busan is doing
fine already. The world's third-largest container port,
it is not only South Korea's gateway but now a
transshipment hub for China. Should it also look north?
Cue the other big Korean rail story lately: the "iron
silk road" beloved of both South Korean President Kim
Dae-jung and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a rail
freight route linking South Korea to Europe via Siberia
- and North Korea. The Russian president pressed the
Dear Leader on this when they met in Vladivostok last
month. To good effect, evidently?
Well, not
exactly. There's a puzzle here. Despite all the hype
about hubs - as in "Seoul, Hub of Asia" and similar
post-soccer hubris - logistics, like most things, comes
down to cold hard cash. Is it really cheaper to rail
rather than ship South Korean goods to Europe? And if
so, what exactly would the route be?
Here's the
puzzle. Busan is in the southeast, so an east-coast
linkup to Russia might look logical. But it isn't. Not
only is there that big gap to fill in, but the main line
doesn't go that way. South Korea's axis runs northwest
from Busan to Seoul, whereas the northeast - Gangwon
province, where Typhoon Rusa hit heaviest - is a
mountain resort area, not that easily accessed from the
rest of South Korea.
To link South Korea to
Russia properly, you'd start from Seoul. That means
rejoining a third line in the middle of the peninsula:
the Kyongwon route, which runs northeast to Wonsan on
North Korea's east coast. The gap here is not wide: the
north's Pyonggang junction (not to be confused with
Pyongyang) is 15km north of the DMZ. Before partition in
1945, this was the main route to the industrial
northeast.
So why is this not on the agenda?
Perhaps it soon will be. According to Voice of Russia
radio, the line Putin and North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il agreed to upgrade is this one. Er, shouldn't
someone be coordinating with South Korea on this?
Prediction: If the rail deal is for real, Donghae will
be dropped in favor of Kyongwon. But where does that
leave the Gyeongui corridor, already built on the
southern side? A glance at the map shows this western
route is the real main line, running as it does up to
Pyongyang and on to China. For that matter, the direct
route to Europe is this way too: across Manchuria and
into Siberia farther west.
Putin knows this. He
spelled it out frankly just before meeting the Dear
Leader: "If we don't link it up here ... it will still
go ahead - but through the territory of our dearly loved
neighbor China" - a touch of sarcasm there, perhaps? -
via "a different junction, and parts of Russia's Far
East will just not see those freights, that's all."
That's why Moscow is so keen on going the long way
around by Vladivostok. Putin hopes this project will
give Russia's run-down Pacific coastal region a
much-needed boost.
Indeed it yet may. But
someone has to finance all this: US$3 billion is the
latest figure. Moscow hopes Seoul will foot the bill.
But if you were South Korea, with every bit of North
Korea's infrastructure in need of costly repair, where
would you start? The long and winding rail to
Vladivostok, or the old royal road to Beijing? Add South
Korea's far brisker business ties with China than
Russia, and the China line makes more sense every time.
So my money is on Seoul's money plumping for "our dearly
loved neighbor", and Vladivostok and Khabarovsk missing
out - unless Putin puts his own money where his mouth
is.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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