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Seoul plays it cool
By
Ahn Mi Young
SEOUL - When North Korea pulled out
of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1994, nervous
South Koreans, worried by the prospect of war, raced to
hoard rice and other commodities.
But now, days
after Pyongyang announced its latest pullout from the
treaty on Friday, there is no panic across in South
Korea and life pretty much goes on like before. Seoul
also confirmed that it is committed to dialogue with
North Korea, adding that the ministerial meeting between
two Koreas will be held as scheduled on January 21.
The difference between South Korea's reactions
today and eight years ago reflects the changes in the
country's attitude over the years.
In 1994, most
South Koreans were strongly united behind the US efforts
to open a dialogue with the isolated North, which had
come under international criticism for its nuclear
program. Today, South Koreans are split into two groups:
One supports Seoul's efforts to push dialogue with
Pyongyang and act as a mediator between the North and
Washington. The other group calls for a stronger
US-South Korea alliance to pressure the North to drop
its nuclear ambitions.
The different attitudes
are reflected in an opinion poll by the nation's largest
web portal, www.daum.net. Late on Sunday, the site
reported that 33 percent were in favor of direct
inter-Korean dialogue, 29 percent wanted stronger
pressure on North Korea by the South Korea-US alliance,
and 23.5 percent wanted South Korea to play a mediating
role.
All of the options have their own hurdles,
but it is interesting to note how the call for South
Korea to take more independent foreign policy steps and
leave its own mark on Korean Peninsula issues has been
growing louder.
"The only role that South Korea
can play [between North Korea and the US] is to bring
both sides into the negotiation table," said Kim
Geun-shik, professor at the Institute for Far Eastern
Studies of Kyungnam University. This is not impossible,
some experts say, but requires a deft understanding of
North Korea's psychology and avoiding a knee-jerk
hardline responses that US officials have been issuing
in reply to Pyongyang's recent moves, which have also
included expelling United Nations nuclear inspectors.
"To do this [hold talks], what North Korea needs
to have is just a little face-saving gesture or excuse
with which the North can back down without feeling
humiliated," Kim explained.
In contrast, the
country's leading conservative newspapers have been
stressing the need to firm up the US-South Korean
alliance to force North Korea out of the nuclear
standoff. In a joint statement, the US government last
week said that it was willing to "talk" to North Korea,
but that it was waiting for Pyongyang to make the right
moves.
After North Korea admitted its secret
uranium-enrichment program in October, the United States
pulled out of a 1994 bilateral agreement under which it
was expected to provide aid to North Korea in return for
that country freezing its nuclear program. Last month,
North Korea said it was restarting its nuclear reactor
to produce electricity after the decision by the US,
Japan and South Korea to cut oil shipments.
On
Monday, US assistant secretary of state James Kelly
hinted at energy aid after talking to South Korean
President-elect Roh Moo-hyun. "Once we get beyond
nuclear weapons, there may be opportunities with the
United States, with private investors, with other
countries to help North Korea in the energy area," he
said.
The United States' refusal to talk to the
North would close all Pyongyang's options for an exit
and make a face-saving, diplomatic solution difficult,
said a message posted on the website ddanji.com, which
is popular with South Korea's young people. But in a
society where debate has been rising in recent months
over increasing antipathy toward the US - whose 37,000
troops are posted in South Korea as a security umbrella
against the North - these views are not held by all.
Conservative thinkers and older Koreans tend to
prefer to stick to the old approach of being seen as on
the side of the US. "Unless we are perfectly certain
North Korea will never be a threat to our security
concern, we must hold on to the US-South Korea
[alliance] as a leverage to use in case," said Kim
Tae-woo, an expert on nuclear issues.
Many who
were children in the 1950-53 Korean War that led to the
division of the Korean Peninsula feel the same way. "If
things continue to worsen, I am scared that another
Korean war might break out," said Park Jung-shik, 50.
"Young people should stop these anti-US demonstrations.
A pullout of US soldiers would make South Korea an easy
target by the North."
Still others say it is
time for some shrewd understanding of the North and the
opportunities that the international community has
failed to pick up on in the past few years. "North Korea
has already made clear its choice about where it should
go," said Ko Yoo-hwan, professor at the North Korea
department of Dongguk University. "It has never been as
serious about opening it up and reforming its state
economy as it was in the past year."
Last year,
the North opened its eastern city of Gaesung for South
Korean investors and its northern city of Sinuiju for
European investors, and raised wage levels to a
quasi-market level so that laborers depend more on wages
than rations. "For these proven efforts, the North
should have been received more warmly by the outside
world," said Ko.
From Pyongyang's viewpoint,
"North Korea's efforts to reform ended up nowhere," said
Ko. "This must have put North Korean reformers in
trouble, and instead strengthened its militant voice.
That may be the reason that the North Korean leadership
needs something else to divert the people's attention to
outside issues."
Inter Press
Service
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