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Roh's
sounds of silence
By Jaewoo Choo
SEOUL - Since his return on June 10 from his summit meeting with Japanese Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun has been
relatively quiet on the developments surrounding North Korea. Yet as July 7,
the date of Roh's third overseas trip - to China - approaches, all parties
concerned with Korean Peninsula affairs will be on the alert for an end to the
silence and a return to his outgoing and straightforward style in expressing
his thoughts and opinions.
Roh's uncharacteristic silence may be the result of his government's continuing
support through financial assistance and humanitarian aid to North Korea, a
policy now perceived as in great contrast with the current strategies of the
United States and Japan.
Roh's silence on the North Korea issue may be because he has decided to
restrain himself until he begins his meetings with the Chinese leadership next
Monday, given the widely shared belief that Beijing retains a special
relationship with Pyongyang. Or he may simply be too preoccupied with domestic
issues. In contrast to what we predicted in May (Roh-Bush summit: Strange
maneuvers, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/EE13Dg01.html May 13), his
headaches over North Korea are not coming from foreign friends, but from
domestic peers. Ironically, they were once his faithful supporters during his
election campaign.
Since his return from Japan, Roh and his administration have had to deal with
strikes by logistics workers and bankers. His administration also got caught up
in a tough fight with the teachers' union over the degree to which students'
personal information stored in computers will be open to the public. The
struggle has been put on hold.
In the week leading up to his departure to China, Roh and his government must
face a number of strikes by various labor unions. On Friday, the Korean
Federation of Transportation, Public and Social Service Workers Union began its
strike as scheduled. On Saturday, railroad workers stayed off the job. On
Monday, the biggest labor body in Korea, the Federation of Korean Trade Unions,
supported strikes by those in the public transportation service sectors,
including taxis and buses. The Korea Metal Workers Federation has set Wednesday
as the deadline for negotiations with the government. Talks are also being
demanded by the Korea Chemical Textile Federation, Korea Non-Life Insurance
Association, and the public-health and medical-industry workers' union.
All these domestic headaches notwithstanding, the recent flurry of high-level
official gatherings all over the world makes the timing of Roh's silence
difficult to understand. Prior to the Roh-Koizumi meeting, world leaders
gathered in Russia to commemorate the 300th anniversary of St Petersburg's
inception as a city. The congregation included the highest figures from the
Group of Eight nations, 15 European Union member and 10 impending member
states, 12 members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, as well as
leaders from China and India. The occasion provided another forum for the
so-called "four major powers" of the Korean Peninsula, namely the US, Japan,
Russia and China.
After that, the 10th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) ministerial meeting was held in
Phnom Penh. Foreign ministers from 23 nations including the 10 members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the United States, China, Japan, South
and North Korea, the EU, Russia, Australia and other Western states were all
together to discuss the East Asian region's security challenges. The highlight
of the ARF meeting was its unanimous adoption of the Chairman's Statement in
which particular emphasis was placed on multilateral dialogue as the principal
framework for solving regional security problems, including the North's nuclear
program. At the conclusion of the ARF meeting, there was strong consensus on
multilateral efforts, with positive reaction from North Korea and China to the
idea of five-party talks with respect to the North's nuclear issue.
On June 21, Roh's government decided to spend 168 billion won (about US$1.4
billion) in the form of a food loan to North Korea. The food will all be rice
that will be shipped on four occasions over the next four months, each shipment
containing 10,000 tons of rice. The day before, a hotline between the military
posts in South and North Korea on the east coast was installed, the second of
its kind after the one on the west coast. Both hotlines, it is claimed, were
set up to facilitate better communication for their joint efforts to reconnect
their railways through the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).
On June 19, it was announced that a historic groundbreaking ceremony for an
industrial compound in Gaeseong, North Korea, the largest and nearest city to
the Panmunjom, was to be held this Monday. It was disclosed that as a gift to
commemorate the historic moment, the South Korean government had promised to
provided diesel fuel in the range of 2,665-4,165 tons, 100-150 tons of mobile
oil, and 12-22 tons of transmission oil. In addition, 1,000 tons of powdered
milk was to be shipped by the end of June. Furthermore, Hyundai was found to
have paid $6 million so far this year for its Mount Geumgang tourism business.
All these initiatives and actions by the South Korean government may well have
a negative effect on trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan in the
future, as those two nations are determined to take a very firm and hardline
policy in handling the North. While the United States recently announced it
would reserve its food supply to the North, Japan decided to impose much
stricter inspection measures on North Korean ships coming into its ports. At
the Trilateral Coordination and Oversight Group (TCOG) meeting that was held in
Hawaii on June 12-13, the three nations seemed to be in harmony on how to
handle the North Korean case. Roh's actions, however, are obviously in
contradiction to the international cooperation norm.
Up to this moment, the motivation and purposes behind the Roh government's
decision to pursue an independent course are not clear. The results of the
upcoming summit meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao may shed light on his
policy toward North Korea.
Jaewoo Choo, PhD, is a research fellow with the Trade Research
Institute, Seoul. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact
content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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