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Catching Kim with his pants
down
By Li Yongyan
If Saddam Hussein
really had a cache of biological and chemical weapons,
would he have unleashed them on the marching allied
forces? Most people would agree that he would, judging
by his massacre of the Kurdish people in northern Iraq.
But would he have detonated an atomic bomb if he had
one?
The world never found out, fortunately. But
the question, hypothetical as it may be, has serious,
realistic implications on the peace and security of some
1.6 billion people in the Far East, because like Saddam,
North Korea's Kim Jong-il is also a dictator and
therefore a danger to the region. But unlike Saddam, he
is enthusiastically pursuing a nuclear program and wants
the whole world to know it, posing a clear and potential
danger to the well-being of the people on the Korean
Peninsula and far beyond.
As North Korea, the
United States and four other nations prepare for a new
round of multilateral negotiations on the nuclear
crises, their pursuit of a reliable and viable solution
should begin with an understanding of how the issue has
come about. The first question is: Why is Kim going
about acquiring nuclear capabilities? The consensus has
him using the nuclear issue as leverage for
international blackmail. If we take a look at history,
it will be apparent that Kim Junior is actually seeking
peace and recognition.
Communists are not known for
their imagination, with good reason: they suppress
freedom of thought. So what do they do when they wish to
achieve something desirable? Mao Zedong summed up his
own experience: "The power of examples is indefinite."
Indefinite indeed.
When the Chinese communists
swept into power in 1949, Kim Il-sung was full of
admiration and inspiration. Within a year, he launched a
"unification" war on the Republic of Korea across the
United Nations-established border.
In early
1960s, when a rift with Moscow left Beijing isolated and
unloved, Mao's resolve was hardened by shame: "Go ahead
and let them blockade us, for 10 years, for 20 years. By
that time we will have everything." In the words of one
general, "We will have to make one atomic bomb even if
it means pawning our pants." So one bomb was exploded in
1964. The shockwave was sweet: the Nationalists in
Taiwan gave up for good their hopes of a comeback to the
mainland, and seven years later, a US president asked to
be invited to Beijing for normalization talks.
That must have impressed Kim Junior so much that
he now wants to have a "peace bomb" of his own. In fact,
he has already made it clear that he wants to sign a
non-aggression treaty with the United States, his
arch-enemy. Unfortunately for him, he does not have much
credibility. So China's example is once again being
followed: the only way to be taken seriously is to
obtain some serious chips. And what gets more attention
than a Nuclear Club membership card?
Now that we
have helped Kim articulate his true intentions that he
can't broadcast himself, what are the options in
securing peace in the Peninsula? Again, three powerful
examples, in order of desirability but in reverse order
of effectiveness, are given here:
The Chinese
way. Send an emissary of peace to Pyongyang for
talks on the establishment of diplomatic relations. If a
preceding Republican president of the United States,
Richard Nixon, got accolades for his vision and courage
in breaking the ice with a nuclear-capable China in the
early 1970s, then there is no reason the present
Republican administration of George W Bush should be
crucified for pulling off a similar diplomatic coup.
There would be a minimal political price, as no allies
would be betrayed. South Korea would be vastly relieved
by America's overtures. This is no more of a
capitulation than Nixon's historic visit to Beijing was,
keeping in mind that an isolated and cornered dictator
becomes the most unpredictable and dangerous.
The India/Pakistan way. If and when Kim
continues to receive the current level of attention, or
lack of it, he thinks he deserves, he will in all
likelihood pawn his or - to be more exact - his people's
trousers for his nuclear ambitions. If South Korea,
Japan or even China and Russia feel threatened, so be
it. Technically, North Korea as a sovereign state has
every right to build any weapons of mass destruction,
just as the United States and China do. China and Russia
are supposed to be powerful enough to protect
themselves. But South Korea and Japan can hardly
persuade Washington to launch a massive air attack on
the North by invoking the joint defense treaty. It is a
defense agreement that says "fire only when fired
upon". No clause provides for a preemptive strike
against a perceived threat, nuclear or conventional.
Since deterrent prevention is the best defense, what
would happen then would be an arms race very much like
the one on the Indian subcontinent: everyone rushes to
manufacture an atomic bomb or two. With the kind of
economic prowess that Tokyo and Seoul possess, a
nuclear-armed East Asia would be just a few months away.
Incidentally, it would be interesting to see what new
charges the world community would bring against the US.
"Irresponsibly letting the situation get out of control"
would fit snugly, while "flagrantly violating the
sovereignty of another state" was ditched conveniently.
But one way or the other, this approach would be
effective in bringing about closer cooperation from
China, especially when Japan, in a justifiable move, has
begun to amend its constitution with the tacit approval
of the US. That alone should be sufficient stimulus for
the region to apply voluntary, concerted pressure on
North Korea.
The Iraq way. If the above
two scenarios are seen as inadequate, there is always
the hardball way. A surgical-type decapitation strike,
while cost-effective, requires not only electronic but
also human intelligence, which is next to impossible
under the circumstances. So an air campaign followed by
overwhelming ground and amphibious forces might prove a
most persuasive method. After Iraq, what is one more
regime change under America's M-1 tanks? And it just
does not matter if there is any evidence of Kim's
weapons export or missile-technology transfers. This
should preferably take place before Kim lays his hands
on an atomic bomb. For a man without pants will be
desperate enough to do anything.
(Copyright 2003
Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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