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SPEAKING FREELY
Pyongyang's doomsday
scenario
By James Zumwalt
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their say.
Please click here if you
are interested in contributing.
No one
yet is quite sure how things will play out in the
current standoff between the United States and North
Korea over Pyongyang's irresponsible conduct and
continuing threats, on the heels of its having already
violated several international agreements seeking to
prevent nuclear proliferation. But there is one further
development that could possibly occur to make an already
complex, unstable and uncertain situation on the Korean
Peninsula even worse. That development comes to light in
the wake of an offhand comment several months ago by a
North Korean official. The comment, while innocuous in
itself, is important because it raises the issue of
leadership succession in North Korea should its
dictator, Kim Jong-il, die unexpectedly.
For
many years prior to the death of Kim Jong-il's father,
Kim Il-sung, the latter left no doubt that his son was
to succeed him when he died. The people were prepared in
various ways for this mandated succession. The father,
revered as "the Great Leader", ordained that his son be
similarly revered as "the Dear Leader". Publicly
displayed photographs of Kim Il-sung were joined by
photographs of equal size of Kim Jong-il and, more
important, were hung at the same level. A document, in
effect a power of attorney to rule the country, signed
by the father in favor of the son, was executed a few
years prior to Kim Il-sung's death. While his actions
toward his people during his life left much to be
desired from the standpoint of human rights, Kim
Il-sung, to his credit, saw wisdom, from a stability
standpoint, in preparing his people for a smooth
transition of power when he died. Whether this was
motivated out of a personal desire by the father to
cement his own legacy or out of a genuine concern that a
bloody power struggle be avoided, we will never know.
But the fact remains, when Kim Il-sung died, at the age
82 on July 8, 1994, there was no doubt in anyone's mind
who was to succeed him.
During the course of my
second trip (of 10 trips eventually made) to North Korea
several months after Kim Il-sung's death, we were hosted
by Kim Young-sun, a very senior official in the North
Korean government. I made reference to the fact that for
years the North Korean people had been groomed for what
would happen when Kim Il-sung died. A follow-up
question, "What is being done now to prepare the people
in the event of an untimely death of Kim Jong-il,"
caught our host by surprise. But he fielded the question
with a typically nebulous North Korean response. Kim
Young-sun replied, "Kim Jong-il is in good health, so
that is not a problem." A more recent, off-the-cuff
comment by a North Korean official may suggest it is
time to revisit the issue.
The comment in
question, made by a North Korean official a few months
ago while visiting another country, alluded to a much
lower profile recently by Kim Jong-il, possibly due to
health-related problems. (While US intelligence sources
attributed the dictator's low profile in Pyongyang to
his concerns over the US ability to monitor and target
movements by Saddam Hussein, the North Korean's comment
pre-dated Operation Iraqi Freedom.)
This comment
is too vague to support an allegation that Kim Jong-il
may be suffering from serious medical problems. However,
it should give us pause to reflect seriously on a matter
about which there has been little discussion to date:
the consequences, at the height of the current US-North
Korea crisis, of Kim Jong-il's unexpected demise.
Unlike his father, Kim Jong-il, to date, has
made no effort to name a son or anyone else as heir
apparent. While this may be because, at age 61, he feels
it is too early to do so (although his father, by the
same age, had already started indoctrinating the North
Korean people for Kim Jong-il's eventual succession as
leader), more likely it is because the son enjoys
basking alone in his power and glory.
Like all
dictators, Kim Jong-il is a man consumed with but one
thing: self-survival. Immediately after his father's
death, he knew he had to solidify his power base. But
unlike his father, who maintained a delicate balance
between the country's two power bases - the Communist
Party and the military - the son opted to solidify his
base solely with the latter. It is clear, therefore,
that should Kim Jong-il die unexpectedly - without an
heir apparent ever being designated - the power struggle
that will ensues will take place within the military to
sort out who shall be king. Should more than one such
contender seek the position, the volatility we have
observed in Pyongyang's relationships with other
countries may erupt internally as well.
Unlike
the relatively smooth transition of power occurring
after Kim Il-sung's death (the first ever succession
from father to son in a communist country), a situation
of nightmarish proportions might well follow the death
of Kim Jong-il absent his prior selection of an heir
apparent. While the party will be left with a political
voice, it will lack power; conversely, while the
military will be left with power, it will lack a
political voice and be concerned little about its
conduct of international relations or any consequences
for its actions. And, as the military struggles to
resolve who within its ranks will have control, anarchy
could well result.
Contributing further to this
unruliness would be a confused population. A population
conditioned to worship and respect its leader as a deity
and, as such, to accept his decision as to who succeeds
to the throne would be unsure as to whom their loyalty
should now attach. These same people were prepared, had
Kim Jong-il's power transition been thwarted, to
question such opposition and die for their Dear Leader
as the rightfully chosen heir. Absent a similar
pronouncement by Kim Jong-il during his lifetime, and
despite the tight control to which they have been
subjected for generations, the North Korean people may
not simply roll over and accept, on faith, a military
leader's contention he has a legitimate claim. (In any
event, we can fully expect to see an effort by one so
claiming power that Kim Jong-il issued a "deathbed"
decree, legitimizing his claim and subsequent actions to
take control.)
The issue of such a government's
legitimacy undoubtedly would be raised as well by the
international community. Further clouding the matter of
succession would be whether the internal struggle in
North Korea was actually over or not, thus raising the
issue too as to who speaks with authority and whether
such authority is permanent or fleeting.
As the
Hermit Kingdom would retreat further into its shell
during such a struggle, the cloud of uncertainty there
would become more dense. One can well imagine the
concerns such a cloud would generate within the
international community over accountability in North
Korea for its nuclear weapons during such turmoil. With
existing instabilities already caused by Pyongyang,
things could quickly deteriorate even further on the
peninsula should Kim Jong-il die unexpectedly.
Concerning an untimely death of Kim Jong-il at
this critical time in US-North Korean relations, we must
determine whether such an event would lie in the best
interests of the United States. In essence, the question
we must ask is whether it is preferable to deal with an
evil whose face is known or one that would replace it
that is unknown while, most certainly, would be just as
diabolical. Ironically, the delicate situation currently
existing between the US and North Korea could spin out
of control immediately were Kim Jong-il suddenly to die.
Ironically, therefore, it may well be in our best
interests to wish Kim Jong-il, in spite of his "axis of
evil" moniker, good health and long life - at least
until the nuclear issue is resolved by negotiation or
otherwise.
James G Zumwalt is a
retired US Marine lieutenant-colonel and former senior
adviser to the assistant secretary of state on human
rights and humanitarian affairs under president George H
W Bush. Since 1994, he has made 10 visits to the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea in an effort to
help bridge the differences between the US and the DPRK.
A veteran of the US-Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars,
Zumwalt now acts as a private consultant to foreign and
domestic clients in exploring and accessing investment
opportunities in global markets. He received a Juris
Doctorate degree from Villanova University in 1979 and
the honorary degree of Doctor of Laws Honoris Causa from
Mercy College in New York in 1991.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their say.
Please click here if you
are interested in contributing.
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