| |
China-North Korea: 'Lips and teeth' set
to part?
By Devon Rowcliffe
BUSAN - When twilight ascends upon East Asia
this Friday evening, the future direction of North
Korea's increasingly tenuous relations with China may
become much clearer.
North Korea has received an
exhausting amount of media coverage over the past
several weeks: for initially scoffing at a security
offer from the United States, threatening to explode a
nuclear bomb, testing several short-range missiles,
spewing yet more of its tiresome brand of garrulous
statements, and ultimately agreeing to take a serious
look at the aforementioned US security pact.
However, one issue of crucial importance that
has been largely overlooked is the fluctuating
relationship between North Korea and China. The
once-cohesive bond between the two states has shown
clear signs of unraveling in recent months and could be
irreversibly damaged if upcoming talks prove unfruitful.
China's parliamentary head Wu Bangguo is
visiting North Korea this week, a brief trip that will
give Pyongyang the opportunity to halt any further
deterioration of its ties with Beijing. A previous
planned meeting was canceled when North Korea accused
China of being "in cahoots" with South Korea regarding
Pyongyang's nuclear program. The upcoming "friendly"
talks are likely to play an important role in deciding
whether China chooses to remain a firm ally of North
Korea, or if Beijing instead elects to become a "friend
at arm's length" with Pyongyang, as Russia has become in
recent years.
North Korea's international
negotiating strategies, once startling and effective,
have become tiresome and transparent. Tactics based upon
threats to disrupt global peace once drew fear and gifts
of appeasement from major world powers; today, however,
Pyongyang's predictable actions are more often met
merely with irritation. Russia, formerly North Korea's
strongest ally, has already distanced itself from the
communist regime, in large part due to the pariah-like
behavior of Pyongyang. And given that North Korea has
decided to use its confrontational style of negotiating
against China, one of its few remaining allies, the
lonely member of the "axis of evil" may soon find itself
more isolated than ever before.
Moscow's
relationship with the "rogue state", once a vital source
of aid and diplomatic assistance to North Korea, is now
largely a formality. Leaders of the two countries still
shake hands and pose for cheerful photo-ops together;
however, capitalist Russia would now rather engage in
trade with predictable and stable South Korea than
associate itself with the antics that have come to
exemplify Seoul's northern neighbor. Russia's
participation in naval exercises with Japan and South
Korea this year clearly illustrate where the former
Soviet state's true alliances now lie.
North
Korea risks a similar scenario with China: relations
languishing to a point of inconsolable tarnish. China,
which once described its relationship with North Korea
as "as close as lips and teeth", has become increasingly
perturbed by Pyongyang's reckless behavior. Beijing has
much to lose from North Korea's predictable disturbances
- China is now fervently embracing global trade, and
thus places increasing importance on international
political (and thus economic) stability. Additionally,
China's ties with the United States, which have improved
dramatically in recent years, are threatened by a
disruptive North Korea.
China has demonstrated
that it will no longer simply overlook Pyongyang's
erratic behavior, and that it is just as willing to
clash diplomatically with North Korea as it is with the
United States. Last October, China's leadership
described Pyongyang's uranium-enrichment program as
"diplomatic adventurism". In January, when Pyongyang
withdrew from the non-proliferation treaty, Beijing sent
a senior official to North Korea to scorn the country,
and briefly stopped oil shipments in February. Energy
shipments were again suspended in March in an effort to
push North Korea into multilateral talks with the US.
China's warnings in March and July were reportedly the
impetus for North Korea eventually joining such talks.
And most recently, Beijing gave support to the
US-initiated Proliferation Security Initiative and
several other measures on North Korea, much to the
chagrin of Pyongyang. Clearly, China has become
increasingly hostile toward North Korea, a trend that
should worry the leadership in Pyongyang.
The
important question for North Korea is whether it can
afford to let China slip away, just as Russia has. China
supplies North Korea with 80 percent of its energy,
commodity and fuel requirements, and is responsible for
approximately 40 percent of Pyongyang's imports. While
it is questionable whether China would aid North Korea
in the event of war, the two countries still technically
share a mutual defense pact. Beijing is adamantly
opposed to economic sanctions upon Pyongyang, and yields
the power to veto such efforts if proposed in the United
Nations Security Council. China's tight security at its
border with North Korea helps prevent a mass exodus of
refugees from the Stalinist regime. Beijing frequently
serves as a mediator between Pyongyang and its
traditional foes at multinational talks, a role that no
other country is likely to volunteer for. Finally, China
provides invaluable advice to North Korea on its
sluggish adoption of market economic traits. Pyongyang
risks losing clearly a vital partner if China and the
North become estranged bedfellows.
The onus will
be on North Korea at this week's talks to reassure China
that a genuine alliance between the two countries is
worth salvaging. North Korea's short list of allies has
been shrinking with each year - thus Pyongyang's cronies
should cringe at the thought of losing yet another
trusted partner.
The North Korean regime will
only have itself to blame if it alienates one of its few
remaining friends - a possibility that the desperate
country can hardly afford. And it is precisely this
scenario - a North Korea with fewer options than ever
before - that should cause the world true alarm.
Devon Rowcliffe has a master's degree
in Asian politics from the University of Toronto.
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
