| |
Happy Birthday, Dear Leader - who's next
in line?
By Yoel Sano
The
scepter in the Hermit Kingdom passed from the Great
Leader to the Dear Leader - and will he in turn pass it
on to his youngest son, already extolled by some as the
Morning Star King?
The lack of fanfare
surrounding North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's birthday
celebrations this year has much to do with his
inauspicious age, 62. It lacks the symbolism of 60, an
important Korean milestone, described as hwangap,
completing one big circle or life cycle and beginning
another. However, as the Dear Leader celebrates his
birthday on Monday, it is precisely because of his
chronological age that the question of succession must
be weighing on his mind, even as it tantalizes Korea
watchers.
The Great Leader Kim Il-sung was
succeeded by his son, the current and Dear Leader Kim
Jong-il, and who will succeed him has Pyongyang watchers
watching closely for omens, signs in the heavens,
entrails or tea leaves. Could it be the oldest disgraced
- and possibly illegitimate - son, the middle son
dismissed as "effeminate" by his father, or the younger
son now called by some "The Morning Star King." It's far
from settled and the family saga is in its early stages.
Because Kim leads a regime long cemented by
vested interests, the process of succession should be
relatively painless, though regime collapse in an
impoverished nation maintained by a brutal hierarchy is
possible. Too many concessions to the United States,
Japan and South Korea over the nuclear issue could
undermine the current regime. Still, Kim assumes - and
so do most observers - that he will stay in power. The
main issue therefore is not if the regime will survive,
but which of his three sons is standing next in line.
Kim inherited power from his own father, the
late "Great Leader", Kim Il-sung, and it is
inconceivable that any organized succession process will
not involve one of Kim Jong-il's own sons. Given the
fact that the Dear Leader himself was groomed for the
top leadership position for more than 20 years, he will
presumably want plenty of time to prepare whichever of
his sons he chooses for the role. He has several
daughters, but the highly patriarchal nature of the
regime and most East Asian societies precludes a female
successor.
Kim Jong-il was his father's
eldest son and was chosen as successor for this reason.
Traditionally, the eldest son is the natural successor
in any dynastic succession, so in theory, the identity
of Kim Jong-il's successor should be obvious: his eldest
son, Kim Jong-nam, born on May 10, 1971, to his second
wife, Sung Hye-rim, a leading actress in North Korea.
Eldest 'bad boy' son may be
illegitimate
Kim Jong-il's first marriage in 1966 was
to Hong Il-chon, with whom he had a daughter, Kim Hye-kyong,
in 1967. But within the space of a few
years, Kim apparently separated from Hong in favor
of Sung. This, however, is where the succession process
gets complicated. It is not known whether Kim Jong-il
ever actually married Sung, and it has been suggested
that his eldest son Kim Jong-nam - the obvious heir-apparent
- may have been illegitimate, and not so apparently the
next in line.
Evidence seems to point
in that direction. According to Kim Jong-il's adopted
daughter, Ri Nam-ok - who is actually the daughter of
Sung's sister, and who defected to Western Europe in
1997 - Kim Il-sung never knew of his first grandson, and
would not have approved of his son's liaison or conjugal
partnership with Sung. As such, the senior Kim
apparently arranged for young Jong-il to marry a
general's daughter, Kim Yong-suk in 1973. This union
resulted in the birth of at least one child, a daughter,
Kim Sol-song, in 1974. According to some reports, there
may have been other offspring, but Kim Sol-song is the
only one definitely known. As in many other ruling
dynasties, the details of Kim Jong-il's private life are
rather sketchy.
In 1980, Kim Jong-il married
again. This time to Japanese-born ethnic Korean dancer,
Ko Yong-hui, who bore him two sons, Kim Jong-chol in
1981 and Kim Jong-un in 1983. Though Kim Jong-nam may
appear to be Kim Jong-il's obvious successor, because of
the uncertainty of his legitimacy, over the past three
years, attention has turned to the latter of Kim's sons.
And, indeed, while it appears that Kim
Jong-nam had initially been in line for the succession -
having been appointed to a senior post in the domestic
intelligence agency and also placed in charge of North
Korea's fledgling information technology industry - he
subsequently fell from favor after May 2001. In that
month he was very publicly arrested and deported from
Tokyo's Narita International Airport, with his son and
two female aides, after attempting to enter the country
on a false Dominican Republic passport. Adding to the
bizarre scenario, he had apparently been seeking to
visit Tokyo Disneyland - although it has not been ruled
out that he was on a sensitive mission to acquire
Japanese technology.
Kim Jong-nam's weakened
position became even more apparent in 2002, when he
spent much of the year in Russia, tending to his sick
mother Sung Hye-rim, who had been living in Moscow after
falling out with Kim Jong-il many years earlier. Sung
passed away from natural causes in August 2002.
May the best Jong win
Just after his
mother's death, another development increased Kim
Jong-nam's marginalization. At the end of August 2002,
Japan's Jiji Press, citing Chinese diplomatic sources,
reported that a hitherto unknown son of Kim Jong-il -
named Kim Hyon (also known as Kim Hyon-nam, then aged
30) - had been appointed head of the Propaganda and
Agitation Department of the ruling Korean Worker's Party
(KWP). Given that Kim Jong-il had himself once headed
this department when he began his political ascendancy
in the early 1970s, speculation naturally arose that the
younger Kim Hyon was being groomed to succeed his
father.
However, nothing more has been heard
about Kim Hyon, raising doubts about the veracity of
Jiji's story.
By early 2003 reports emerged that
the Korean People's Army (KPA) had begun a propaganda
campaign centering on the personality of Ko Yong-hui -
although in typical to North Korean fashion, without
actually naming her. A similar campaign had been created
for Kim Jong-il's long-deceased mother, Kim Jong-suk,
ahead of his succession, and as such, the development
points to one of Ko's sons, rather than the bad-behaving
and possibility illegitimate Kim Jong-nam or the
perceived late entry, Kim-hyon, as the heir-apparent.
Attention naturally turned to the elder of the
two brothers, Kim Jong-chol, and Newsweek magazine
published a dated and blurred black and white photograph
of him during his school days in Switzerland. More
recently, though, the emphasis has been on the younger
brother, Kim Jong-un (also spelled Kim Jong-woon). The
main proponent of this theory is Kim Jong-il's former
Japanese sushi chef, Kenji Fujimoto (a pseudonym), who,
in his memoir, published in Japan, stated that Kim
regards Jong-chol as too effeminate, and Jong-un to be
more like his father.
Complicating this
complicated picture, however, were reports in October
2003 that Ko Yong-hui had been critically injured in a
car accident. Other reports suggested that she was
suffering from breast cancer. Her current status is
unknown, and any disagreement over the succession could
potentially cause problems for the process. Although Ko
has no formal role in the process, she presumably wields
some influence over Kim Jong-il's decision.
In
this regard, Kim Jong-il will be keen to avoid any
schisms developing within the ruling family, as happened
with his own succession. Kim himself displaced his
father's younger brother, Kim Yong-yu, from the position
of heir apparent in the early 1970s. Kim Yong-ju
subsequently vanished from public life in 1975, and
would not reappear until July 1993, only to be appointed
one of North Korea's four vice presidents later in that
year. This move was said to be aimed at reassuring North
Korea's old guard that a massive generational shift
would not take place once Kim Jong-il took power.
In addition, it seems that Kim Jong-il had to
stave off a challenge from his half-brother, Kim
Pyong-il, the oldest son of his hated stepmother, Kim
Song-ae. Pyong-il was widely said to have been better
leadership material, possessing greater skills and
having served as a major general and deputy director of
the strategy bureau at the Ministry of People's Security
in the 1980s. However, because Kim Jong-il saw him as a
rival, and Kim Song-ae favored Pyong-il as successor, he
was sent abroad in 1988 as ambassador to Hungary,
followed by Bulgaria, Finland, and most recently,
Poland, in order to keep him out of Pyongyang politics.
Another half-brother, Kim Yong-il, died of cirrhosis of
the liver in May 2000 in Germany, where he had been
serving as counselor at the North Korean interests
office.
Military backing key to smooth
succession
One thing that is certain is that
whoever succeeds Kim Jong-il will have to win the
support of the powerful Korean People's Army. The 1.1
million-strong military is the only institution that can
challenge the regime. Indeed, the power and profile of
top military leaders has increased substantially under
Kim Jong-il, who relies on the armed forces to maintain
order and stability in the face of widespread famine and
economic decay. While Kim Il-sung was alive, the
generals mainly kept out of the limelight. However,
senior commanders now accompany Kim Jong-il on virtually
all his public appearances, reinforcing the image of a
military state.
Kim Jong-il has ruled
North Korea exclusively as supreme commander of the army
since his father's death in July 1994. Since that time, Kim
Jong-il has very skillfully won the backing of the
Korean People's Army by waiting for the natural demise
of some of the octogenarian veterans of his father's
anti-Japanese guerrilla struggle - such as former
defense ministers O Jin-u and Choe Kwang - to pass away
through natural aging. And he has appointed his own
loyalists to key positions. The most important of these
are Vice-Marshal Jo Myong-rok, the first vice-chairman
of the National Defense Commission (NDC) and head of the
KPA's political bureau; Vice-Marshal Kim Yong-chun, the
chief of the general staff; and Vice-Marshal Kim
Il-chol, the minister of the People's Armed Forces -
North Korea's system of defense. More recently, General
Ri Myong-Su, the director of the operations bureau of
the general staff, and KPA political bureau deputy
directors Hyon Chol-Hae and Pak Jae-gyong have gained
prominence. These men form the core of Kim Jong-Il's
power base in the army.
Kim Jong-il's moves to
control the military have been a remarkable success,
considering that for many years prior to 1994, it was
said that the KPA disliked the Dear Leader so much that
it would depose him in a coup immediately after Kim
Il-sung left the scene. Kim Pyong-il, with his military
background, was often mentioned as a possible
military-backed replacement.
However, Great
Leader Kim Il-sung gradually phased out senior officers
who would pose a threat to his son, Jong-il's
succession, and in December 1991 he appointed Jong-il as
supreme commander of the army, despite the fact that he
had no military experience, except for a brief
unconfirmed stint at the East German Air Force Academy
in the early 1960s. Kim Jong-il was subsequently
elevated to the rank of Marshal of the Democratic
People's Republic of Korea in April 1992 and then a year
later to chairman of the National Defense Commission - a
post that he now holds as head of state.
Kim
Jong-il has also successfully bound his family to the
top ranks of the military structure through his full
sister Kim Kyong-hui's husband, Jang Song-taek, who
serves as the first vice director of the Korean Workers
Party 's organization and guidance department, headed by
Kim Jong-il himself. Jang's eldest brother, Jang Song-u,
is a KPA vice marshal and commands the Third Army Corps,
which surrounds the city of Pyongyang. According to Sin
Kyong-wan, a former KWP official, the second-oldest
brother, Jang Song-yop, is the vice director of the Kim
Il-sung Higher Party School. A younger brother, Jang
Song-Gil, is a lieutenant general and tank commander,
while the youngest, Jang Song-ho, is a political vice
president of the Mangyongdae Revolutionary School - an
elite establishment which Kim Jong-il and many top
leaders attended.
Kim Jong-il has nurtured
the army
In any case, the KPA - which has
increased its influence under Kim Jong-il - benefits
from his continued rule, adopting a Military First
Policy under the banner of "Kangsong Taeguk" - a great
and militarily powerful nation. The military's position
allows it to guide national policy without having to
take administrative blame for North Korea's ongoing
economic problems. As such, the KPA has a vested
interest in a stable succession, especially since many
senior military leaders are developing business
interests as heads of military-dominated conglomerates.
The largest such enterprise, Chungwoonsan, is headed by
Vice Marshal Jo Myong-rok, according to North Korea
watcher Selig Harrison.
Although there have been
several reports of coup attempts - most notably in 1992,
by a group of Soviet-trained perestroika
[restructuring]-oriented generals, and again in 1995, by
elements of the Sixth Army Corps in remote North
Hamgyong province - none has come remotely close to
succeeding because of the efficiency of the security
apparatus.
There are really only two
circumstances in which a military coup would take place.
First, if the economy continues to disintegrate, and
national survival becomes an issue, "reformist" elements
in the Korean People's Army may conclude that North
Korea is better off without the Korean Worker's Party
and Kim Jong-il. The second scenario involves Kim
Jong-il making too many concessions over North Korea's
nuclear program to the United States, South Korea, or
Japan, and accelerating economic reforms that cause
social unrest. The latter situation could lead to a
"reactionary" coup of the sort that befell Soviet leader
Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991.
Another reason
why a second dynastic succession is likely to be upheld
is that it is not just the ruling Kim family that
benefits from nepotism and connections. While the
predominance of a small number of surnames in Korea
(North and South) makes it difficult to track family
links, it is known that many top leaders are the sons of
the revolutionary generation that fought against
Japanese imperialism, or have siblings in high
positions. For example, Kim Kuk-tae - a senior KWP
central committee secretary in charge of cadre affairs -
is the son of general Kim Chaek, who served as the KPA's
frontline commander during the Korean War, in which he
was killed. General O Kuk-ryol, the head of the central
committee's special operations department, is the son of
a veteran guerrilla, as is Colonel General O Kum-chol,
the commander of the air force.
North Korea's
titular head of state, Kim Yong-nam, who serves as
president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's
Assembly (SPA, or legislature), has two brothers in high
positions: General Kim Du-nam, a one-time military
adviser to Kim Jong-il, and Kim Ki-nam, a senior central
committee secretary. Yang Hyong-sop, the vice president
of the SPA Presidium, is married to Kim Jong-Il's aunt.
Many others benefit from similar ties.
Not a
one-man show, a regime of vested
interests
Therefore, North Korea, far from being
a one-man show, or even a one-family show, is an entire
regime bound together by vested interests, under the
leadership of Kim Jong-Il. This should make the
succession process easier, provided that the identity of
the heir is decided upon without causing fractures in
the first family or the army.
Assuming that the
regime survives - and it has proved remarkably durable,
against all odds - it may still be some years before
North Korea formally announces the identity of the
successor.
Although Kim Jong-Il's political rise
began in the early 1970s, when the official media began
to speak of the "Party Center" as a code word for Kim,
his actual status as heir apparent did not become clear
until the Sixth Korean Worker's Party Congress in 1980,
when he was appointed to a number of party posts. Yet,
it was not until August 7, 1984, that Pyongyang publicly
confirmed Kim Jong-il as successor. Even then, it would
be another 10 years before his father died, after which
Kim would have to wait three years before being
appointed to his father's position as general secretary
of the KWP. In September 1998, Kim Jong-il formally took
power, but he never assumed the state presidency,
instead ruling in his existing position as chairman of
the National Defense Commission.
Certainly, the
signs are that either Kim Jong-chol or Kim Jong-un is
being maneuvered into the succession. The latter is even
being referred to as the "Morning Star King", according
to South Korean Pyongyang watchers. However, the saga is
still in its early stages, and Kim Jong-nam cannot be
totally ruled out. His status as first-born son carries
considerable weight, and the regime has a habit of
re-instating disgraced figures after a suitable period
of atonement.
In the meantime, there appears to
be very little active opposition to the regime. Unlike
Iraq under Saddam Hussein, which spawned dozens of
opposition groups in exile, North Korean defectors have
created only one such group, the National Salvation
Front For Democratic Unification of Chosun, led by
former KWP propaganda official Pak Kap-dong. However,
the organization has proved as ineffective as it is low
profile. The nearest thing North Korea has to an exiled
opposition leader is Hwang Jang-yop, a former central
committee secretary, who defected in February 1997.
Hwang was initially welcomed in South Korea under the
presidency of Kim Young-sam, but once Kim Dae-jung's
"Sunshine Policy" took effect, Hwang was ignored. Hwang
still travels to the US, where he addresses
neo-conservative groups that welcome his calls for
regime change in Pyongyang. But Hwang is 81 years old,
and has limited time left to achieve his goals.
As far back as the 1980s, Korean historian Bruce
Cumings, when questioning a Soviet diplomat in Pyongyang
on the chances of Kim Jong-il succeeding Kim Il-sung,
was told "come back in 2020 and see Kim Jong-il's son
succeed him".
As of early 2004, that prediction,
seemingly unrealistic only a few years ago, no longer
sounds so implausible. Check the omens, the stars, the
entrails and the tea leaves.
Yoel Sano
has worked for publishing houses in London, providing
political and economic analysis, and has been following
North Korea, as well as other Northeast Asian
developments, for more than 10
years.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
