SPEAKING FREELY Policy paralysis over Roh's
impeachment By Bruce Klingner
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The
National Assembly's impeachment of President Roh
Moo-hyun on March 12 has plunged South Korea into a
leadership crisis that will stall implementation of
necessary political and fiscal reforms, impede progress
on six-way talks with North Korea and undermine
confidence in South Korea's economic future.
In
the near term, the impeachment has unleashed a furious
public backlash against the opposition parties that will
likely result in a dramatic downturn in the April 15
legislative elections, while Roh and his favored Uri
(Our Open Party) Party will gain favor from the
populace. In the longer-term, however, although it is
expected that the constitutional court will restore
Roh's presidential powers, his ability to effectively
govern during the remaining four years of his term has
been permanently damaged.
The president has
faced a blistering series of attacks during his 13
months in office, led by an opposition bitterly opposed
to his policies, which it perceives as accommodating
North Korean transgressions while straining the crucial
bilateral relationship with Washington. Roh's troubles
have also, to some degree, been self-inflected and he
has been widely criticized for political ineptitude for
needlessly alienating both his core base of supporters
and Washington through a vacillating series of policy
revisions.
The nine-member constitutional court
will decide within six months if the impeachment will
stand, based on a determination of the seriousness of
the president's violation of the election law, which
prohibits government officials from influencing
political campaigns. Six of the nine justices must rule
to uphold the vote in order for a new presidential
election to be scheduled. Chief Justice Yun Young-chul
said that the court will reach a decision "as early as
possible and as precisely as possible".
Analysts
expect the court will rescind the impeachment vote,
based on the infraction not meeting the threshold of an
impeachable offense. The court may also adopt a holistic
approach by taking into account public opinion, which
has been overwhelming against the impeachment decision.
Inter-Korean relations Seoul will
strive to maintain an appearance of stability and
continuance of existing policies in order to reassure
foreign investors as well as Washington and regional
capitals concerned with the potential for North Korean
actions. Existing North-South projects will continue,
although inter-Korean economic talks scheduled for March
15 in the southern city of Paju were scuttled by North
Korean concerns about "political instability" in the
South.
New initiatives with Pyongyang, however,
are unlikely given the caretaker status of the interim
president. The already glacial pace of six-way talks to
resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons impasse will
likely be further slowed by uncertainties, both within
the South Korean government as well as its negotiating
partners, over the direction of Seoul's policy or even
its ability to deliver on negotiations. South Korean
Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon sought to downplay concerns
over the future of the six-way talks, claiming there
would be no impeachment effect, "The North Korean
nuclear issue and impeachment are completely separate
issues," he said.
Ban also sought to signal
Pyongyang not to endanger progress in inter-Korean and
international fora. "If North Korea is passive or
decides to sit out a future round because of
impeachment, we will have to question North Korea's
commitment to resolving the nuclear issue peacefully,"
the foreign minister said.
Economic
stability South Korean Minister of Finance and
Economy Lee Hun-jai was widely praised for implementing
a series of measures in the weekend immediately
following the impeachment in order to insulate domestic
financial markets from uncertainty. Lee's commendable
efforts allayed initial fears of a dramatic downturn in
South Korea's financial markets and enabled him to
announce that international credit ratings agencies had
all kept Korea's sovereign ratings unchanged.
The real danger, however, will arise from
longer-term uncertainty over government fiscal and
monetary policies and a consensus that the fallout from
the impeachment will further delay restructuring, which
investors have articulated as critical for maintaining
South Korea's nascent economic recovery. A drawn-out
deliberation by the constitutional court, or perception
of a seriously weakened Roh presidency, will pose
greater challenges for the South's recovery than the
immediate reaction following the vote.
Further poisoning the domestic political
well The greatest impact of the impeachment vote
will be on South Korea's domestic political landscape.
Regardless of the constitutional court's ruling or the
results of next month's legislative elections, Roh has
been seriously injured. Roh could have likely prevented
the constitutional crisis with an apology or mea
culpa but his determination - some will say
arrogance - will reinforce his image as reckless and
politically inept, even as he is credited by some with
gaining popular support through deft political tactics.
The populace, even as it rallies against the
impeachment vote, will remember Roh's previous unusual,
even strange, articulations of his "unworthiness" to be
president and his promises to resign if his party's
corruption exceeded 10 percent of his opponent's. Over
time, the spike in public support for Roh will decline,
as it did following a similar increase after his earlier
call for a referendum on his presidency and pledge to
depart if the populace did not provide a sufficient
mandate.
The president has repeatedly warned of
the dangers of chaos and instability if he is removed
from power, but the populace may be growing tired of his
political brinkmanship, which comes at the expense of
progress on domestic policy reform. After the current
constitutional imbroglio is resolved, the strategic
question will become, "Can Roh provide effective
leadership for the nation at a time of critical domestic
and international challenges?"
Regardless of the
outcome of the constitutional court's deliberations, the
ability of the political parties to work together has
been dealt a resounding blow, with the fissures between
the parties exacerbated by the impeachment. The level
and ferocity of acrimony within the National Assembly
will escalate and further impair its ability to reach
consensus on necessary legislation.
In its
collective quest to attack Roh, the opposition parties
have neither addressed the impact on the country of a
weakened president nor articulated alternative policies
that could acquire sufficient support across the
political spectrum. It appears unlikely that any
politician, including Roh, will take the higher moral
road and advocate a collective step back from the
political precipice and espouse a policy that would
provide effective leadership for progress.
The
Grand National Party appears too wedded to its
destructive anti-Roh campaign and the Millennium
Democratic Party may be unable to overcome the fierce
public backlash against its part in the impeachment to
be a viable voice for conciliation. If Roh and the Uri
Party gain an absolute majority during next month's
elections, they may be able to force through
legislation, but it will be a rule marked by arrogance.
If, as is more likely, the Uri party doesn't attain a
majority, South Korea will be faced with a bickering,
bitter partisanship that though stable, will be mired in
a quagmire of stagnation.
Bruce
Klingner is director of analysis for the
Intellibridge Corporation in Washington, DC.
Intellibridge provides customized open-source
intelligence analysis for government, corporate and
sovereign clients. His areas of expertise are strategic
national security, political and military affairs in
China, Northeast Asia, Korea and Japan. He can be
reached at bklingner@intellibridge.com .
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online
feature that allows guest writers to have their say.
Please click hereif you
are interested in contributing.
