South
Koreans go to the polls on Thursday to elect a new
National Assembly, but much, much more than that now
appears at stake since last month's impeachment of
President Roh Moo-hyun, ostensibly because of his
statement of support for one of the contesting parties.
The president's support for the upstart Uri
Party, or Our Open Party (OOP), over the opposition
Grand National Party (GNP) and the Millennium Democratic
Party (MDP) - nominally his own party, since he ran on
the MDP ticket - caused the opposition to unite and
present Roh with an ultimatum in early March: either
apologize for his comments - which were judged to be
illegal but only a minor infraction of Republic of Korea
(ROK) election laws - or face impeachment.
Roh's
impeachment is front and center in the elections on
Thursday, April 15.
Roh could have defused the
crisis by acknowledging his mistake but decided instead
to call the opposition's bluff. After internationally
broadcast fisticuffs between his supporters and
detractors on the floor of the National Assembly, Roh
was impeached by a vote of 193-2 (Uri Party members
walked out before the vote), on the grounds of
election-law violations, corruption and incompetence.
Winston Churchill once said that "democracy is the worst
form of government, except for all those others that
have been tried". Koreans seem intent on demonstrating
the irony in these words.
Roh's fate now lies in
the hands of a Constitutional Court, where within 180
days (and more likely by the end of April) six of nine
members must vote to support the impeachment or Roh
returns to the Blue House after a paid vacation with
full room and board. While the court is independent,
most analysts believe that its members will be
influenced by the public sentiments expressed in the
ballot boxes.
Public opinion is currently
running about 70-30 against impeachment, and the Uri
Party is expected to gain a big boost as a result of the
political showdown. Some have suggested that Roh, ever
the brilliant political tactician, actually orchestrated
the whole crisis to lift up the Uri Party. Whether by
design or default, that is what has happened. While
inconceivable at the beginning of the year, it now
appears Uri could become the largest (and perhaps even
the majority) party in the National Assembly after the
election, giving Roh the foundation he has thus far
lacked to pursue his political agenda ... assuming, of
course - as almost everyone does - that the impeachment
charges do not stand.
The implications of all
this for ROK-United States and South-North relations are
less than clear, but most OOP members are considerably
more sympathetic and tolerant of North Korea than they
appear to be toward Washington. Without the checks and
balances provided by a more conservative National
Assembly, it is difficult to predict in which direction
Roh will choose to take either relationship. Meanwhile,
in the very capable hands of Prime Minister and now
acting President Goh Kun, the country remains safe and
secure and perhaps more politically stable than at any
time since Roh's election. This state of affairs could
revive calls for a less powerful presidency or even for
a parliamentary system somewhere down the line.
US President George W Bush has stated that it is
US policy to promote democracy everywhere. This brings
to mind yet another old saying (usually attributed to
Chinese fortune cookies): "Be careful what you wish for
because you might get it."
