Korean polls: More at stake than assembly
seats By David Scofield
SEOUL - When South Korea's voters
go to the polls to elect a new 17th National Assembly,
they will have a chance as well to speak their mind on
the vastly unpopular impeachment of President Roh
Moo-hyun and to decide whether Korean politics will
still be dominated by the two big mainstream parties and
riven by
regionalism.
They can vote for politics as usual, or they can vote
for pluralism and change.
The campaign,
culminating in the election on Thursday, has been devoid
of substantive discussion of major issues of jobs,
economic stability and national security, meaning North
Korea. Still, some, especially those who support the
impeached President Roh, call it a pivotal election to
push back the old guard in South Korea's still-nascent
democracy - the first democratic elections were held in
1987. The party identified with the sidelined Roh - down
but not out - might even make significant gains.
At stake are 299 seats in the newly expanded
17th National Assembly, including 56 "proportional"
seats to be awarded later, based on showings in
Thursday's polls. The last assembly contained 273 seats,
and it was dominated by the two mainstream,
business-as-usual parties: the Grand National Party
(GNP), holding 145 seats, and its ally in the
president's impeachment, the Millennium Democratic Party
(MDP), with 64. Together the GNP and MDP spearheaded the
impeachment on March 12. The more progressive Our Open
Party (OOP), identified with Roh, holds 47 seats; the
rest are held by the tiny United Liberal Democrat party,
independents, and the assembly Speaker.
It won't
be a landslide, but no official polling data have been
published since April 2 because of an election
regulation blackout, so it's difficult to get a reading
on the shifting political picture. Some experienced
analysts believe there will be losses for the GNP and
MDP and a big gain for the OOP. Some suggest the outcome
could be 110 seats for the GNP and 110 for OOP -
identified with President Roh - with the remaining 79
split between the MDP, the United Liberal Democrats
(ULD), the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) and the other
eight minor parties in the running.
A high
turnout is expected - 75-80 percent of the 35.6 million
eligible voters in the nation of 48.9 million.
Behind the numbers and projects, the campaign
and the political theater have been bizarre.
Politicians bow in public acts of
contrition If apologies and theatrics were
policy, the behavior of South Korea's electoral
candidates would promise insightful, intelligent debate
on the myriad issues that face the nation. There is no
shortage of regret and acts of contrition (primarily
over the hugely unpopular presidential impeachment) by
candidates of the major political parties. But while all
the bowing and pleading and self-flagellation make for
great newspaper copy, there is scarcely any discussion
of concrete proposals and plans that will move the
country beyond its immediate economic, political and
social problems. Apologies for past wrongs and vague
declarations of national unity, an end to regionalism,
and prosperity for all do not include formulas for a
stronger future.
Choo Mi-ae, election committee
chief of the MDP, in an effort to atone for her party's
sins - especially the impeachment of President Roh -
performed the ritual of Sam-bo Il-bae (three steps one
bow). This Buddhist rite of atonement requires the
practitioner to walk three steps, drop to the knees and
bow the head to the ground before the people. Choo
performed this repeatedly over three days in Gwangju, a
traditional MDP stronghold, to demonstrate her and her
party's profound shame and remorse and to ask for unity
both within the MDP and the nation.
Not to be
outdone, GNP leader Park Geun-hye moved her party's
headquarters to a collection of tents near the Han River
in Yeoido. This was an apparent attempt to demonstrate a
back-to-basics and out-with-the-old approach - a bit
ironic given that Park's popularity is largely a product
of her father's (Park Chun-hee's) legacy: he was and
still is considered the father of South Korea's economic
development. The GNP went even further, recently hinting
that it would reverse its stand on Roh's impeachment,
when it seemed it might be politically expedient to do
so - regardless of obvious legal concerns.
Roh's
impeachment for alleged election irregularities and
incompetence is now before the South Korean
Constitutional Court, which is expected to rule at the
end of May.
Seniors told not to vote, stay
home and rest And while the GNP and MDP change
residences and ask for forgiveness, the leader of a
third party - OOP, supported by Roh - is telling Korea's
senior citizens to stay home. "Those in their 60s and
70s don't have to vote ... they can rest at home," said
Chun Dong-young, the party's leader and chief campaign
manager.
It's one thing to play regions and
generations off one another for votes - that's a
hallmark of Korean politics - but to imply that there's
no place in South Korea's political landscape for its
seniors, against a neo-Confucian backdrop no less, has
been almost as effective in winning back supporters to
the GNP as the impeachment was in driving them away.
Indeed, this gaffe has called into question the
political maturity of the president's de facto party,
OOP, undermining its chances of securing a majority in
the National Assembly.
So grave has been the
damage that some OOP candidates have openly called for
Chung to step down. Chung held a press conference Monday
night and declared that he would step down as chief
campaign manager, a symbolic gesture, and hinted that he
would also resign as party leader. In the end he did
not, but he has removed himself from the list of party
delegates for proportional seats - meaning he will not
be running in this election.
Instead he has gone
on hunger strike, not the first to do so in this
campaign, in a bid to distract people from larger, more
fundamental issues of national importance such as rising
unemployment, decreased national competitiveness and a
soon to change security environment on the Korean
Peninsula, to name but a few. He is encouraging people
to cast their votes based on the narrow, legally
legitimate impeachment issue, setting rational debate
and pluralism aside in a quest for front-page coverage.
Of course, this doesn't spell the end of Chung, for, as
insiders here have noted, these elections will be
followed by a number of by-elections as elected
representatives are removed for campaign violations,
creating a seat for Chung after all.
And what do
average Koreans think about it all? Asia Times Online
spent the past few days touring the provinces, trying to
get a feel for how this so-called pivotal election is
being viewed outside of Seoul. Regionalism is still very
much alive: North Kyongsang, a largely rural province on
the country's eastern seaboard, will continue to support
the conservative GNP and the ULD, the party of political
fixture Kim Jong-pil, will likely have a showing in
South Chungchong province, 150 kilometers south of
Seoul, securing a couple of seats. Younger people,
however, generally will be tempted to vote for
progressive parties such as the OOP. And many people
seem bored with it all, and if a recent poll conducted
by the widely circulated Joong Ang Ilbo is any
indication, more than 50 percent of the voters have
little or no knowledge of the candidates in their
area.
Nothing about jobs, economic stability,
national security The ritualistic
self-flagellation - traditional penance for corrupt
politicians and today those more cynically concerned
about a backlash over the impeachment - of many of the
nation's political leaders makes for a great spectacle.
But at the end of the day, the nation's real concerns
have perhaps less to do with the impeachment of Roh and
the much-discussed generational schism that exists
within the Korean electorate, than with more substantive
issues of jobs, economic stability and national
security.
The nation's political parties seems
as unlikely as ever to engage in the sort of meaningful
debate that might end South Korea's divisive regionalism
and promote discussion of serious national and
international issues that the government will have to
tackle in months and years to come. The electorate,
however, will have the opportunity to vote for pluralism
and diversity.
The newly expanded national
assembly of 299 seats, up from 273, includes 56
proportional seats that will be voted for separately but
simultaneously on Thursday. All registered voters in
South Korea will cast two ballots on Thursday: one for
the party representative for their riding, or district;
the second for one of 13 parties that are running
nationwide. The second ballot includes only the names of
the parties running, with a list of all the parties'
nominees. The total vote tally will indicate which party
can nominate which candidates to these 56 seats. Any
party that receives at least 3 percent or more of the
total vote, or wins in five constituencies, will be
given a seat.
For Korea's pessimistic voters,
the balloting allows for some fudging, or hedging. In
theory, a voter from North Kyongsang province, for
example, could vote for the local representative of the
GNP as in the past, concerned primarily with who will
best represent his or her region's particular interests.
The same voter, however, could then vote ideologically
on the ballot for the 56 proportional seats. This could
help the cause of Korea's self-described "true"
progressive party, the DLP, to secure a few seats, and
it could also mean that Korea's fringe parties, ranging
from the socialists to the Silver Right Party, could
secure a few seats in the assembly.
South
Korea's politics have long been dominated by regional
concerns and politically motivated rivalries. Since
before Korea's first democratic elections in 1987, its
politicians have campaigned on policies to end
regionalism and promote unity, while at the same time
promoting politically strategic regional rivalries. This
year has been no exception - the mantra again has been
an end to regionalism, with no discussion of how this
might be accomplished.
Two factors, however,
might offer hope for the future. First, the National
Election Committee has been more vigilant than ever in
clamping down on illegal electioneering. The days of
openly proffering white envelopes stuffed with cash to
woo potential voters have all but vanished. And while it
likely still exists, this sort of illegal electioneering
has been driven underground by the election watchdogs
armed with video cameras at all party functions. If this
leads to a diminished windfall for many of the nation's
voters, people may base their votes more on longer-term
national concerns than on shorter-term payoffs.
Second, the newly added 56 proportional seats
open the door to include more voices from beyond the
stale, mainstream politics and they hold the possibility
for political plurality and ideological debate, two
great steps forward for South Korea's still nascent
democracy.
David Scofield, former
lecturer at the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies,
Kyung Hee University, is currently conducting
post-graduate research at the School of East Asian
Studies, University of Sheffield.
(Copyright
2004 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved.
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regionalism.
They can vote for politics as usual, or they can vote
for pluralism and change. 
